This blog is going to look at the Beat the Drop question posed by Paddy Power and will be my Question No 2. The conundrum is will there be 3 or more goals in the match?
This is a mid table clash with both teams looking safe from relegation but not much hope of a Champions League spot. With a total goals scored in a match question perhaps we should look at goals conceded by each team to start with. Benevento have conceded goals in both halves in 40% of matches when playing at home and Sampdoria just 30% when playing away. This in itself doesn’t mean that they don’t let in more than one goal 60% and 70% of the time. The following stats do seem to back these figures up as Benevento when at home concede the most goals between minutes 16-30 and 61-75 suggesting lapses half way through each half. Sampdoria on the other hand let in the most goals between 61-75 minutes.
Benevento do make most of their substitutions after about the 75th minute as shown below in the last 5 matches
v Cagliari – Insigne 72′ Sau 76′ Lapadura 76′
v Atalanta – Foulon 46′ Ionita 80′ Dabo 58′ Sau 58′ Lapadula 58′
v Crotone – Improa 75′ Tuia 75′ Ionita 65′ Insigne 40′ Sau 65′
v Torino – Tello 68′ Ionita 84′ Lapadula 84′ Caprari 76′
v Inter – Caldirola 60′ Improta 70′ Ionita 70′ Viola 60′ Caprari 76′
N.B The substitutions in the Atalanta game proved to be a bit of a blunder as Atalanta put 3 goals past them in the last 21 minutes 🙂
Sampdoria have pretty much a similar substitutions policy as the following last 5 matches show
v Inter – Tonelli 68′ Silva 75′ Jankto 75′ Balde 90 + 2′
v Spezia – Jankto 79′ Candreva 85′ Damsgaard 79′ Balde 86′
v Udinese – Ekdal 85′ Silva 73′ Damsgaard 62′ Verre 62′ Quagliarella 62′
v Parma – Candreva 82′ Silva 82′ Ramirez 70′ Balde 58′ Quagliarella 70′
v Juventus – Candreva 81′ Silva 63′ Quagliarella 68′ Balde 68′
Niether team reply quickly to goals scored against them letting play carry on to take its natural course. In other words they don’t mount an effective counterattack against their opponents but this doesnt strike as detrimental to the amount of goals scored. As the following scorelines show in matches against teams also in mid table a shortage of goals never seems a problem
Beneventos’ 5 home games v Mid table sides
v Lazio 1-1
v Genoa 2-0
v Spezia 0-3
v Bologna 1-0
v Torino 2-2
Sampdorias’ 5 away games v Mid table sides
v Atalanta 1-3
v Hellas 1-2
v Firentina 1-2
v Spezia 2-1
v Torino 2-2
Sampdoria have conceded in everyone of there away games against similar matched sides and in every case 3 or more goals have been scored.
Unlike the English Premiership, Serie A games are much more spaced out allowing players to take proper rests and as such will be more match fit than their English counterparts.
Paddy Power is quoting odds of 1.73 for over 2.5 goals in this mach which seems to bare out the liklihood of an above average Goal rate.
Betornot 