Due to circumstances beyond my control I was unable to post yesterdays Paddy Power £1.00 to £100 instalment but did however research it and stake the full £1.77 on not one but two Europa League games last night as a greedy double. Here’s why.
“For the next bet (£1.77) I am looking at the Europa League. Looking at match odds of 1.5 or below for the favourite I drew up the following shortlist.
Hoffenheim 1.25 (v Molde)
AC Milan 1.43 (v Crvena Zvezda (Red Star))
Leicester 1.50 (v Slavia Praha)
So with 3 matches to choose from I started with Hoffenheim.
Looking at previous Europa League games this season Hoffenheim have played 7 games, 3 of them being goalless at half-time were both red star legs and the away leg of Slovan Liberec. The home games where at least one goal was scored before half-time saw 2 goals v Slovan Liberec at 22′ and 30′. The home leg v Gent also had 2 first half goals at 21′ and 26′ (note: hindsight is a wonderful thing)
Molde only has 2 0-0 score lines at half time these being Dundalks away leg and the home game against (The Mighty) Arsenal.
In all likelyhood there will be a 1st half goal but over over 05 goals can come from either side and Hoffenheim’s excellent 1st half “clean sheet” record would cut that likely probability in half! (Note: it was at this point that I talked myself out of backing this match – fool!!)
The same cannot be said for A.C. Milano who with the exception of the away leg v Lille have scored or conceded in every game. Their opponents tonight Red Star have also scored or conceded in all but 3 games (both Hoffenheim lags and away to Slovan Liberec) in the 1st half. Serie A League stats back A.C. milan’s early goal scoring capability with only 3 games from 23 ending goalless at half-time. With Red Star also having a similar record (3 from 22) this game became a “no-brainer”.
Finally onto Leicester.
Leicester only just made the shortlist with match odds of 1.50 and this one seemed the banker of bankers (W*****rs of bankers more like)
Leicesters journey to the last 32 has seen them, or their opponents score in all but two games in the first half. These facts made me greedy and after talking myself out of backing the Hoffenheim game decided to back the double! and we all know what happened next!!!
Betornot 