Having just done a blog post on researching “Will Both Teams Score” and showing the workings for the lunchtime game between Middlesbrough and Watford I thought I might use it to enter question 2 of this round.
As I said in my previous blog there can be 4 different outcomes to this question
No teams score
Team A scores and Team B doesn’t
Team B scores and Team A doesn’t
Both Teams score.
Middlesbrough are hosting Watford today and BTTS odds are as follows
Yes 1.91 – 2.1
No 1.72 – 1.87
This gives us an implied probability of -Yes 46.6% – No 53.5%
I contrast to this and as an additional research point I had a quick look athe correct score markets and found that the 1-1 market is actually the favourite at odds of 6.8. While the odds are irrelevant as far as a return on your money is concerned. In relation to the other correct score odds it might indicate the bookies are hedging a BTTS outcome. From this I conclude that perhaps the odds on a yes result can be of value and might just back it for my first bet of the week towards my “Road To Cheltenham 2022” campaign at SkyBet.
But I have Digressed and to get back on track the next market I looked at was the match odds and found that Watford were favourites at best odds of 2.3 (43.5% Implied Probability) and a Middlesbrough win can be backed at best odds of 3.85 (26% Implied Probability) With these figures in mind Recent home form of Middlesbrough indicates that having only failed to score in one game from the last 8 and the last 4 home games produced at least 1 goal the law of averages suggest that today may be another. I personally think that this conclusion can be backed up by the 1-1 correct score market being the favourite.
When playing away Watford has the same game form but scored considerably more goals in each of the games averaging 2.0 (Middlesbrough averaged 1.45) Both of these averages are what I prefer to see when I am looking at both teams scoring. These figures are for both home and away games, if we drill it down further to the last 4 home games Middlesbrough played the goal average is even better at 1.75 and Watford’s away goals average is 2.25
The “Won to Nil” Stats are also encouraging as Middlesbrough have only 37% of their home games this season and Watford’s Away “Won to Nil” percentage is even better at 16%
Lastly a look at the Head 2 Head stats and can see that even though the last twice these two teams met Watford won both to nil at home but when Middlesbrough hosted 4 out of 5 games ended with both teams scoring.
Betornot 