Tonight Brentford host Birmingham City in a game that is important to both teams. Paddy Power has posed 3 questions appertaining to this match
1. Will both teams score
2. Will Brentford be winning at half-time
3. Will there be 3 or more goals in the match
All three are good ones and there are more listed
I have decided to go for the over 2.5 goals question as it will give me a chance to explain my research methods.
As always it is best to ascertain which team is most likely to win and the match odds heavily favour 3rd place Brentford with best odds of 1.62 (61.7% Implied Probability) to win the match. These odds suggest that a Brentford victory will be quite convincing as the BTTS odds are also weighted towards No at Best Odds of 1.78. However The Odds of Brentford winning to nil are 2.45 which implies a probability of only 40.8%. This suggests that while Brentford should win comfortably there is a better than even chance that Birmingham might score!
This odds based research is most definitely giving mixed messages and before I move onto the actual stats I will look at the correct score markets just to confuse things further.
In the correct score markets I look predominantly at score lines that have less than 3 goals and these are as follows
Score Odds
1-0 6.6 (15.2% Implied Probability)
2-0 7.6 (13.2% Implied Probability)
1-1 9.0 (11.1% Implied Probability)
0-0 11.0 (9.1% Implied Probability)
0-1 17.0 (5.6% Implied Probability)
0-2 48.0 (2.1% Implied Probability)
These probabilities added together gives an overall probability of 56.3% Which in actual fact returns odds of 1.78 – exactly the odds of a No in the BTTS market!
This hasn’t really clarified the issue.
Actual goal based stats are invaluable as you saw yesterday as relying on bookmaker odds, which carry such an overround in their favour, are good only to get a general feel for the bet.
I will be looking at the over 2.5 goals stats to start with and can see straight away that Brentford, when playing at home average an over 2.5 goal rate of 56% with an average home scoring rate of 1.94 goals per game. They also have a conceding rate of 1.06. In layman’s terms this gives the impression that the score could well be 2-1.
I have not ignored Birmingham City’s ability (or lack of it) and as miniscule as it is, it is still relevant and their average goals scored when playing away is 0.74 If we couple this with Brentford’s 1.94 it gives us an average of 2.68 goals – over 2.5.
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