The first Premiership game today is the mid-table clash between Leicester City and Arsenal. The Odds for Leicester are 2.5, Arsenal 3.0 and to Lay the draw the lay odds are 3.75. There has been at least one goal scored in the past 9 games where these two sides have met with just one 1-1 draw in July 2020. This season neither team have scored in the first 15 minutes of the game with Leicester preferring to wait until after the 30th minute to get on the score card. Arsenal, away, have only scored once this season and have conceded at least one goal in each 15 minute time segment. Leicester have scored in all but one of their home games this season only losing to nil against Manchester City. They have also scored 2 or more goals in the last 4 of their matches (Home and Away). Arsenals Away record is dismal but leicster have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 8 matches giving hope that at least 1 goal will be scored. The odds for over 0.5 goals is 1.06 suggesting strongly that the market expects.
After opening “Soccer Mystic” in the Betangel software and putting 30 minutes into the time of first goal we can see that a profit would be gained if either team scored.
Alphabetically Burnley v Brentford is the first 3pm fixture and the odds are similar to the Leicester v Arsenal game earlier in the day. Burnley are slight favourites at 2.76 and Brentford a few ticks higher at odds of 2.96. To lay the draw odds of 3.35 are on offer. Burnley have conceded in all of their home games this season apart from the 0-0 draw against Norwich City. Brentford also have a 0-0 score line against Crystal Palace but have scored in all of their other 3 away games. Both teams have scored in the first 15 minutes but Brentford have the edge with 4 of their seasons goals coming in the first half. With no previous meetings of these two teams there are no head to head stats.
Again after loading the relevant information into Soccer Mystic we see that there would be a slightly better return if the form of Brentford ran true and scored in the 16th minute. A few quid lower liability also makes this an attractive trade.
Liverpool v Brighton is next under the spotlight and with Liverpool knocking at Chelsea’s door in top spot are clear favourites to win this with odds of 1.27. Brighton however, in the same fixture last season , beat Liverpool 0-1! Liverpool have scored first in 3 out of 4 of their last home games whereas Brighton have just one opening goals from the same number of away games (4) Using soccerstats opening goals table we can see that Liverpool’s average time of scoring first is 40 minutes at home and when they did concede first it was in the 22nd minute. Brighton’s only opening goal when away was in the 90th minute and their average conceding time was 24 minutes.
After putting an average time of 40 minutes into Soccer Mystic a first goal by Brighton at this point would have the same result as Lille last night against PSG but the difference here is that after looking back at Lille’s Stats they scored first on no fewer than 4 times out of 7 matches. Confident of a Liverpool opening goal this trade looks good on reflection the level of profit just depends on the timing of the goal.
Another outrageously short “odded” Manchester City host Crystal Palace this afternoon in the 3rd 3pm kick-off and going straight to the first goal time table and see that Manchester have scored 3 opening goals at home this season at an average time of 9 minutes and have not conceded a first goal at home at all this season. A good omen. Crystal Palace have conceded a total of 5 goals in the first half away this season and scored none and Manchester City have scored a total of 6 goals this season at home conceding none.
Putting 9 minutes into Soccer Mystic produces the following figures.
A very high liability in relation to the other matches today does reflect the probability of a draw happening but hopefully the stats will bare out and quite a healthy profit can be made. But remember nothing is without risk.
Top team Chelsea travel to Newcastle today in the penultimate 3pm premiership game today. This might be a slightly more dangerous match to lay the draw on as an early goal by the hosts would see the bet “greening” red! They have opened the scoring 3 times at home this season with an average time of 21 minutes and when they did concede first this came in the 13th minute. Chelsea have yet to concede a first goal when away but have an average opening goal time later in the game than Newcastle at the 33rd minute. A total of 4 goals being scored in the first half at home this season might suggest a “quick score strategy” and hope the opposition don’t counter. This of course wouldn’t happen in this case as Chelsea would come back with vengeance but the damage would be done to our trade. Putting this scenario into Soccer Mystic tells the story
While there seems to be little doubt about a goal in this game the distinct danger is that it will be the home side – not a good thing for this trade.
Back to some sort of normality as far as odds go comes the final 3pm kickoff between Watford and Southampton. The bookies favoutite is Southampton with odds of 2.32 but home side advantage and Watfords opening goal record at home may sway. The assurance of at least one goal by either side is bourne out by the fact that 11 goals have been scored in total over 3 games involving these two teams pitted against teams level or lower in the premiership. Watford have no “clean sheets” this season at home so if we populate Soccer Mystic with Watford’s Opening goal timing of 10 mins we get the following scenarios.
The final game today will have to wait as I have to go out soon.
Betornot 