Following on from yesterdays post where both favourites won at odds of 3/1 and 15/2 giving me a profit of just under £25.00 Todays two races offering a freebet by #VirginBet are
Race 1 14:05 at Newbury
Race 2 15:35 at Kelso
Race 1
2 1/2 mile Handicap chase
#adrianmassey stats for this type of race read as follows
17796 bets on the favourite resulted in 30% winning and 53% placing giving an 83% chance of the favourite either winning or placing. In March this rises slightly to 84% with 31% of favourites winning. However on races run on a Saturday only 26% of favourites won and just 51% placed. Todays going is officially Soft and of the 3855 races run between 2003 and 2022 on this ground there is still an 82% chance of the favourite winning or placing. There have been 402 Handicap races run in the time frame at Newbury and 85% of favourites won or placed here.
There is very little difference between this race and both handicap hurdles of yesterday in terms of stats and will post results of Fav and price later. At the time of writing this there is no market available by #VirginBet but other bookmakers are making Heltenham favourite trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by Harry Skelton.
Race 2
3 1/4 mile Handicap chase
This distance has a 30% chance of the favourite winning and a significant lower chance of just 52% of placing but overall a 82% chance of either winning or placing. The going is good to soft with rain expected today perhaps softening the ground a bit more. The good to soft ground raises the expected place percentage to 54% leaving a 14% chance the favourite will not win or place. The present posted favourite, Forward Plan, has won over this distance on both good and soft ground pointing us toward another bet that will either win or a return in the form of a free bet.
Results will be posted later
Betornot 