Similar to trading a 15 tick drop, this system allows the trade to trading price to drop to 50% of the back price and lay at double the stake. for instance if you back a horse at 10/1 (11.00) for £10.00 to double your stake you would need to lay the horse in running at odds of 9/2 (5.50) at a stake of £20.00! The calculation is as follows
Back £10.00 @ 11.00 returns a £100.00 profit (£10 stake x 11.00 Odds – £10 stake = £100) if the horse wins, -£10.00 if it loses
Lay £20.00 @ 5.50 will give a loss of £90 (£20.00 stake x 5.5 odds – £20.00 stake) if the horse wins, £20.00 profit if it loses.
So if the horse wins we win £10.00 (£100 – £90) and if the horse loses we win £10.00 (£20 – £10) There would also be a commission to pay at what ever rate betfair charge you on your account, in my case it is 2% so I would be left with a £9.80 profit. and its doesn’t matter if the horse wins or loses.
This part is simple enough the hard part is finding suitable horses in which this strategy has a greater chance of happening than others. Every horse that wins, DOBs this is a fact! so you might be excused to think that if you DOB all favourites then you should be in profit but the figures for all outright favourites winning in 2020 was just over 35% and some of the other 65% of losers would undoubtedly have DOBbed but we are looking for a more cast iron way of picking suitable runners. This is where the nice people at “In Running Trading Tool” website come in.
In their “simple DOB strategy they recommend the following criteria
- Eliminate all horses that have a DOB% rate of 84.99% or less
- Eliminate all horses that have a “ShortinRunning” figure that is a negative
- There is no criteria mentioned for forecast odds or win% rate.
As you can see from the screen shot above there are only 2 suitable selections for today and while the picture is not as clear as I would like I have also “Expanded” the stats for each runner to show their BSP and in-play low prices for all of their previous races to try and get a feel for the prices involved and how they ran
I have zoomed in on the first runner to try and make it a bit clearer so you can see that Sol Del Mar hasn’t looked like winning in all three of its previous races coming 17th, 11th, and 10th. It is however ridden by Conor Hoban who, in his 2 previous rides convinced the traders to back him in running to low prices of 8.00 and 16.00 from B.S.P.s of 80.52 and 471.69 respectively.
With these facts in the back of my mind I am going to set the betangel software that I use for trading to back these 2 runners at best price 10 seconds before post time and to trade out at 50% tick drop during in-play
I will post the resulting profit or loss on a post tomorrow
The beauty of using the in running trading tool is that yesterdays figures can be called as they were posted on the day and without the days results incorporated into the stats so that you can actually do a real time analysis of the criteria knowing in advance the result
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Trading in-play, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Betornot 