Santa Anita Park
This is the first of a set of featured posts detailing the trends of Favourites racing on the U.S. Race Tracks taking into account just the distances and race types.
In the UK the considered average strike rate for winning favourites hovers around the 33% mark. This figure for Santa Anita Park, In January 2026 is an Impressive 44% with an average BSP of 2.75. Backing to a £1.00 level stake, a 2% commission was implemented on winning bets. In January there were 132 races at Santa Anita. These races produced a £17.35 profit. This is a 13% ROI (Return on Investment). This result is quite good. We can explore the stats further to try and find a better strike rate. We should keep the average odds somewhere near the same.
The table below outlines the ROI and P/L for each distance run. This data is from January 2026. The analysis starts with the distances run.
| Distance | Races Run | P/L to £1.00 Level stake | ROI |
| 5f | 11 | -£4.01 | -36% |
| 6f | 54 | £25.05 | 46% |
| 7f | 11 | -£8.45 | -77% |
| 1m | 46 | £4.74 | 10% |
| 1m 1f | 9 | -£0.34 | -4% |
| 1m 4f | 1 | £0.36 | 36% |
The highest performing distance in terms of ROI is the 6 furlong races. As you can see from the table above, these races produced an impressive 25 point profit. The only other profitable distance is 1 mile with a 10% ROI. Betting on the single mile and a half race is foolish. The odds were very short on the exchange at 1.36. They would have been even shorter in the thieving sportsbooks.
Having determined the best distance in terms of ROI we can break this down further into race types. The Next Table shown below breaks down the same stats from the 6 furlong races into the 7 different race types run over that distance in January
| Race Type | Races Run | P/L to £1.00 Level stake | ROI |
| Allowance | 2 | -£2.00 | -100% |
| Allowance Claiming | 12 | £1.72 | 14% |
| Claiming | 15 | £14.72 | 98% |
| Grade 3 | 1 | -£1.00 | -100% |
| Maiden Races | 14 | £7.94 | 57% |
| Maiden Claiming | 8 | 3.67 | 46% |
| Stakes Races | 2 | -£0.01 | -1% |
The inference here is that the best performing races where the favourites won were Claiming, Maidens, and Maiden Claiming races. If we had backed Claiming, Maidens, and Maiden Claiming races over 6 furlongs in January, we would have seen success. Out of the 37 races run, the favourites won 65% of the time. This resulted in an overall profit of £26.34 and an ROI of 71% to a £1.00 level stake after 2% betfair commission.
If we discount the 1m 4f race, the only other distance that produced a positive ROI was 1m. At this distance, 46 races gained a 10% ROI and a £4.74 profit after commission.
The Table below, as before, breaks down the different race types
| Race Type | Races Run | P/L to £1.00 Level stake | ROI |
| Allowance | 2 | -£2.00 | -100% |
| Allowance Claiming | 7 | £1.59 | 23% |
| Claiming | 15 | £2.20 | 15% |
| Grade 3 | 1 | £2.73 | 273% |
| Maiden | 8 | £1.80 | 23% |
| Maiden Claiming | 10 | £0.07 | 1% |
| Stakes Race | 3 | -£1.65 | -55% |
There isn’t really much to shout about over this distance regarding winning favourites. As with the other non-profitable distances, it is probably betornot to bet at all.
Summary
Betting to a £1.00 level stake at Santa Anita in January would have been profitable. You would bet on the BSP favourite for each race. A reasonable profit would have been made over the course of the month. This of course is just one race track and one month of analysed data. These figures, though, have been pulled from the Betfair website. The odds can be significantly better than at the bookmakers at the official ISP (Industry Starting Price).
There are occasions where the Bookmakers favourite is different from Betfair’s favourite. This happened during the 2nd race on 2nd January. The BSP favourite was Molly Jenson at odds of 2.92. Molly Jenson won, while the bookmakers favourite, EAST BOCA KIBBUTZ, came 2nd at an ISP of 2.3 and 3.75 at the exchange!! Molly Jenson went off at odds of 3.4 at the bookies!
Skulduggery or just a betting frenzy on the exchange just before post time?
Disclaimer
These figures shown on this post are meant to guide you. They highlight the possibilities of making a small profit from backing favourites in certain races at the U.S. Tracks. I accept no responsibility for future results. They may or may not result in profits. Care should be taken to bet only what you can afford to lose.
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