In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool”
The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings.
I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters
DOB % >= 50%
Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75%
Win % >= 20%
These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site.
This gave me this screen
The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were
15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden
15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt
15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame
16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord
17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel
18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings
18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark
18:45 Kempton; Altraif
19:15 Kempton; Jumbly
19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express
Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list
Love is Golden amd Jumbly
Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board.
By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:
We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality.
In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded
The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5
A successful Trade!
Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark
Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam.
With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths
You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet
Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!
To get a free 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool click the banner below. Please like this post if you want more posts in the same vein.
To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.
There are 3 horses meeting the criteria today (4th Sept)
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock
Please bet responsibly
Betornot 
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