After yesterday’s success with Past Time, I am £5.00 in profit after backing her at 4.4 and she traded at 1.77, 33 ticks below the required 2.2, we move onto today’s DOB of the Day. Running at Doncaster in the 16:30, Anmaat has forecast odds of 4.00 and a DOB percentage of 100%. £49.00 reflects the 5/5 times he has run and “DOBBED” With an average racestyle of 1 he prefers to lead or just tuck in behind the leader and after looking at his previous runs seems to make his move 2f out and giving all in the final furlong. One concern would have been if the going was good to soft as a previous race was lost seemingly due to the ground not being exactly to his liking and tiring him 100 yds from the finish allowing Encourage to win by 3/4 length. that being said an in play low price of 1.33 suggests the work was done inside the 2nd furlong from home. I actually backed him at 5 o’clock this morning at odds of 5.7 so my exit price is 2.86 This price is still available There is more information today and I am grateful for the additional resources provided by #caanberry and #timeform which is ever-present on one or more of my computer screens There is one other possible DOB candidate but it fails on the short in- running condition. This is Al Simmo in the race after Anmaar’s at 5 o’clock full details and a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be had by clicking the link below
Having had some success over the past few days with Double or Bust bets I have decided to feature a DOB of the Day Using the In-Running Trading Tool I have set the criteria at the following parameters and lets see how they do.
The “DOB of the Day” will always be the horse which meets all these conditions
DOB rate of over 85% average for all races
Short in running figure zero or greater
A “DOB return” of over £25.00
Forecast odds between 3.0 and 20
A “Runstyle” of 1 or 2
Todays horse that meets all of these conditions is:
17:30 Galway; Past Time She has a forecast S.P. of 3.25 Short in Running Figure is £9.80 Average Runstyle is 2 DOB return of £29.40 She has “DOBBED” every race run giving a 100% DOB Rate
Other factors in her favour are todays race is over 7f, a distance she has only raced at. Same jockey on board (Leigh Roche). It is the most tipped horse in the race (If thats a factor in her favour 😏) I backed her at odds of 4.4 at 12:01 for £5.00 and set an Auto Cash out for £5.00 (a simple but effective way of “DOBBING”) At 12:27 the odds have come in to 3.7
The information used for this bet has come solely from the In-Running Trading Tool There was just 1 selection yesterday which was O’Faolins Lad which went off at a B.S.P. of 14.5 and won To get a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool pleas click the link below
Alotaibi was forecast at an S.P. of 1.33 and you would be excused from thinking that with 10 tips from the National Racing Press “Experts” that this is surely one of those banker moments – Alas it was not to be as Wanees came home in front! However Alotaibi did have a B.S.P. of 1.85 which was 13 ticks more than the industry S.P. and reached an in-play Low of 1.4! This was in fact a 45 tick drop – more than enough to meet our requirements of 1.7 for 15 ticks and a small profit Valley Forge with 11 tips and a NAP pushing it along and an attractive forecast S.P. of 3.00 (2/1) many a punter would think that it is “money back time” This was not to be unfortunately as Valley Forge managed just 3rd out of a field of 6. But as it turned out all was not lost as the B.S.P. was 2.51 and his in-play low dipped to 2.00 giving a tick drop of 25. This gave an in running profit of 12.8% With 2 out of 2 losers as far as the straight punters were concerned, I on the other hand have an overall profit of 10% on my stakes. The evening meeting at Wolverhampton and my last selection in this system was most tipped horse with 12 tips, Loves Me Likearock. Winning by just half a length very nearly made it 3 disasters for the favourite backers. Going off at 2.07 at the Betfair exchange traded to the lowest possible at 1.01 and another win for the system and finishing up 10% up on my stakes
There are just 2 selections today (5th Sept) 14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips) 14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
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The screenshot above shows the form and other stats for the two horses To get a free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool” The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings. I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters DOB % >= 50% Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75% Win % >= 20% These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site. This gave me this screen
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The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were 15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden 15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt 15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame 16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord 17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel 18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings 18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark 18:45 Kempton; Altraif 19:15 Kempton; Jumbly 19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list Love is Golden amd Jumbly Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board. By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:
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We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality. In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded
Back Bet
Lay bet
The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5 A successful Trade! Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam. With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!
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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.
Betornot 