Researching bookies boosted bets. Are they really value or just a way of getting you to part with your money
With adrenaline pumping I have just put £1.42 on there being over 0.5 first half goals in the Tottenham v Burnley game this afternoon. Tottenham’s 11 first half goals count as 65% and 9 of these being scored in the first 30 minutes makes this an attractive proposition, coupled with this, Burnley have managed to keep a clean sheet up to half time only once in their last 5 premiership away games.
Having lost my £1.77 to a fit of greed, the Wonder Wheel paid out again this time with 5 free spins and £1.04 in winnings. So I begin again courtesy of Mr Power.
That’s as far as i got yesterday before my laptop battery gave a bit of a squeak threatening all sorts of violence unless plugged in pronto. Being banned from my office for the afternoon as my wife had zoom meetings.
Now its 5 am and I am back in the seat of power
Before going for my afternoon sleep,(As I have mentioned before I am a full time truck driver for a meat packing company. Every nights a day in my life), I stuck £1.04 on the over 0.5 goals in the 1st half Frankfurt Market at odds of 1.36 – Heres why
Bremen Hosted Frankfurt Last night in the Bundesliga. From the last 4 away games frankfurt have produced 6 first half goals as well as conceding 2. Bremen have conceded 3 first half goals in the first half in 2 of the last 4 home games.
Due to circumstances beyond my control I was unable to post yesterdays Paddy Power £1.00 to £100 instalment but did however research it and stake the full £1.77 on not one but two Europa League games last night as a greedy double. Here’s why.
“For the next bet (£1.77) I am looking at the Europa League. Looking at match odds of 1.5 or below for the favourite I drew up the following shortlist.
Hoffenheim 1.25 (v Molde)
AC Milan 1.43 (v Crvena Zvezda (Red Star))
Leicester 1.50 (v Slavia Praha)
So with 3 matches to choose from I started with Hoffenheim.
Looking at previous Europa League games this season Hoffenheim have played 7 games, 3 of them being goalless at half-time were both red star legs and the away leg of Slovan Liberec. The home games where at least one goal was scored before half-time saw 2 goals v Slovan Liberec at 22′ and 30′. The home leg v Gent also had 2 first half goals at 21′ and 26′ (note: hindsight is a wonderful thing)
Molde only has 2 0-0 score lines at half time these being Dundalks away leg and the home game against (The Mighty) Arsenal.
In all likelyhood there will be a 1st half goal but over over 05 goals can come from either side and Hoffenheim’s excellent 1st half “clean sheet” record would cut that likely probability in half! (Note: it was at this point that I talked myself out of backing this match – fool!!)
The same cannot be said for A.C. Milano who with the exception of the away leg v Lille have scored or conceded in every game. Their opponents tonight Red Star have also scored or conceded in all but 3 games (both Hoffenheim lags and away to Slovan Liberec) in the 1st half. Serie A League stats back A.C. milan’s early goal scoring capability with only 3 games from 23 ending goalless at half-time. With Red Star also having a similar record (3 from 22) this game became a “no-brainer”.
Finally onto Leicester.
Leicester only just made the shortlist with match odds of 1.50 and this one seemed the banker of bankers (W*****rs of bankers more like)
Leicesters journey to the last 32 has seen them, or their opponents score in all but two games in the first half. These facts made me greedy and after talking myself out of backing the Hoffenheim game decided to back the double! and we all know what happened next!!!
Managed to win a quid on Paddys Wonder wheel yesterday
putting it ALL on over 0.5 goals in the first Half at odds of 1.3
how far can I go
A 42 minute Own Goal by Crvena zvezda’s Pankov secured this bet with 3 minutes to spare 🤑 Top Man!!!
I have just done the research on a Paddy Power “Beat the Drop” question which I thought was on the list but turns out I mis-read it ?? Any way the research was Wolves v Leeds Both Teams to Score
Instead of lumping my £1000 pot onto yes I have lumped my £2.62 from the above bet at odds of 1.63. with Paddy Power Click here to go to the bet
Here are the reasons why
Wolves have scored in 3 of their last 4 home games
Leeds have scored in 3 of their last 4 away games
Wolves have only failed to score twice in their last 12 home games (17%)
Leeds have only failed to score once in the 12 away games this season (8%)
Wolves have conceded at least one goal in 75% of their home matches
Leeds have conceded at least one goal in 67% of their away Matches
One blot on this landscape is that Leeds failed to score in the previous meeting of these two teams at Elland Rd.
If you are new to my blog this may seem a bit random so please check out my previous blogs
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
Bet 4 £1 – £100 Using Betfair’s Time of First Goal Market
£1 – £100 using Time of first goal market on betfair “Obituary”
Absolutely devastated that it took 31 minutes for Man City to score. My life is in tatters and in a fit of vengeful rage I backed 1st half Over 0.5 goals in the Crvena Zvezda v AC milan with Paddy Power using my last £1.87 (they wont let me put more than a fiver on anyway) boosting it to 1.4 with my last odds boost – That will show them !!
After Falling at the second question last time This is the account of my second try at Paddy Powers infuriatingly difficult “Beat The Drop”
Question 1 of 12
Wolfberger v Tottenham
Will both Teams Score?
This is the 1st Leg of the 16th Finals and is being played on neutral ground Puskás Aréna (Budapest) due to europe spitting their dummy out and closing borders to our sportsmen and women. How children behave eh?
Tottenham have played 6 games and have only failed to score once which was in the game v Antwerp, Wolfsberger have also played 6 games (unsurprisingly) and have failed to score twice (in both legs against Dynamo Zagreb)
Even though Wolfsberger is billed at home the stats should be taken into consideration for 2 away teams (in my view), They do seem to score most of their goals in the second half (73% of Wolfsberger AC’s goals have been scored in the second half) and have scored in 88% of their away matches (Austria – Bundesliga). They are currently 6th in the Austria – Bundesliga.
Tottenham have a 50% clean sheet rate from all their europa league games but more importantly have a 0% rate when playing away (ie they concede every time they have played away so far) Tottenham have scored in 73% of their away matches (premiership) They are currently 9th in the Premiership Table.
I have Lumped all £1000 on both teams scoring.
This blog is going to look at the Beat the Drop question posed by Paddy Power and will be my Question No 2. The conundrum is will there be 3 or more goals in the match?
This is a mid table clash with both teams looking safe from relegation but not much hope of a Champions League spot. With a total goals scored in a match question perhaps we should look at goals conceded by each team to start with. Benevento have conceded goals in both halves in 40% of matches when playing at home and Sampdoria just 30% when playing away. This in itself doesn’t mean that they don’t let in more than one goal 60% and 70% of the time. The following stats do seem to back these figures up as Benevento when at home concede the most goals between minutes 16-30 and 61-75 suggesting lapses half way through each half. Sampdoria on the other hand let in the most goals between 61-75 minutes.
Benevento do make most of their substitutions after about the 75th minute as shown below in the last 5 matches
v Cagliari – Insigne 72′ Sau 76′ Lapadura 76′
v Atalanta – Foulon 46′ Ionita 80′ Dabo 58′ Sau 58′ Lapadula 58′
v Crotone – Improa 75′ Tuia 75′ Ionita 65′ Insigne 40′ Sau 65′
v Torino – Tello 68′ Ionita 84′ Lapadula 84′ Caprari 76′
v Inter – Caldirola 60′ Improta 70′ Ionita 70′ Viola 60′ Caprari 76′
N.B The substitutions in the Atalanta game proved to be a bit of a blunder as Atalanta put 3 goals past them in the last 21 minutes 🙂
Sampdoria have pretty much a similar substitutions policy as the following last 5 matches show
v Inter – Tonelli 68′ Silva 75′ Jankto 75′ Balde 90 + 2′
v Spezia – Jankto 79′ Candreva 85′ Damsgaard 79′ Balde 86′
v Udinese – Ekdal 85′ Silva 73′ Damsgaard 62′ Verre 62′ Quagliarella 62′
v Parma – Candreva 82′ Silva 82′ Ramirez 70′ Balde 58′ Quagliarella 70′
v Juventus – Candreva 81′ Silva 63′ Quagliarella 68′ Balde 68′
Niether team reply quickly to goals scored against them letting play carry on to take its natural course. In other words they don’t mount an effective counterattack against their opponents but this doesnt strike as detrimental to the amount of goals scored. As the following scorelines show in matches against teams also in mid table a shortage of goals never seems a problem
Beneventos’ 5 home games v Mid table sides
v Lazio 1-1
v Genoa 2-0
v Spezia 0-3
v Bologna 1-0
v Torino 2-2
Sampdorias’ 5 away games v Mid table sides
v Atalanta 1-3
v Hellas 1-2
v Firentina 1-2
v Spezia 2-1
v Torino 2-2
Sampdoria have conceded in everyone of there away games against similar matched sides and in every case 3 or more goals have been scored.
Unlike the English Premiership, Serie A games are much more spaced out allowing players to take proper rests and as such will be more match fit than their English counterparts.
Paddy Power is quoting odds of 1.73 for over 2.5 goals in this mach which seems to bare out the liklihood of an above average Goal rate.
This one looks interesting from Paddy Power, they have boosted this bet from 4.0 (3/1) to 6.0 (5/1). As is usual with Paddy Power they have not given any pointers as to past performances with all players playing for different teams in two seperate games.
Mo Salah is currently the leading premiership goal scorer and averages 3.7 shots at goal converting that into 1.7 shots on target. Liverpool play Man City at Anfield on Sunday and should prove to be an exciting match as they will both be looking to advance their respective positions in the league. A disappointing performance by Liverpool against Brighton will galvanise the team effort. That said however Salah did have 4 attempts at goal in that match having 2 of them blocked but unfortunately none were on target. His performance against the reverse fixture at Etihad Stadium did see him have 2 attempts at goal with one being on target. This bet has ensured that we cannot wait to see the team sheets so will Salah start this game as Liverpool take on Leicester City next Saturday? I suspect that he will as it is an opportunity not to be missed as Man City play Swansea City in the F.A. Cup in 3 days and as such will Pep Guardiola rest some of his players in preparation.
Mason Mount is Chelsea’s attacking Midfielder with an average shots on target figure of 0.6. Having scored only twice this season in the premiership and having 19 1st team appearances his ability to fulfil his part of the bet seems dubious. Chelsea play Sheffield Utd Away late Sunday night and their last meeting at Stamford Bridge saw Chelsea put 4 goals past the Sheffield keeper but none were scored by Mount but he did manage a shot on target and 2 blocked shots. Chelsea also have an F.A. Cup clash next week against Barnsley. His performance against Tottenham 3 days ago was better than most with 3 shots at goal getting one on target. Going back further to the 2-0 win over Burnley, he still seemed to struggle to get on target after 4 attempts. I think that this choice of player by P.P. is the one that they hope to fail his performances against sides that are defensively weaker than Chelsea can be lack-lustre at best.
Last but by no means least is Raheem Sterling who’s’ average shots on goal are 2.4 with 1.1 shots on target match average. In the match at the Etihad Stadium he didnt score for City as Salah scored for Liverpool but he did manage a shot on target. His ability to score goals is beyond doubt as he has 7 to his credit this premiership season. A bit of a brutal schedule this week for Man City may see some substitutions in the City ranks so again perhaps a clever selection by Paddy Power.
Paddy power have no doubt put this bet up early to entice the Saturday Morning punters to perhaps punt a small stake before any team sheets are posted. Will probably risk a quid to win 5 but no more 🙂
Browsing through the Paddy Power site this morning I came upon Three Tipster bets for the Tottenham v Wycombe Game tonight (tipster is employed by PP! The one that caught my eye was Joe Jacobson to be booked. The Spiel by PP trader goes along these lines
Jacobson has been booked FIVE times this season.
This is very true and they were given in the following Championship Matches
Sheffield Utd
Stoke City
Barnsley
QPR
Bristol City
His average fouls per 90 mins however is 1.2!
The last time he got a Yellow Card in the F.A. Cup was on 3 dec 2017 against Leatherhead. This is one of only 3 Yellows he has collected in his total appearances for Wycombe in the F.A Cup Competitions since 2015/16.
Although he does have the most Yellow Cards for Wycombe this season this is from 22 appearances.
The odds, unsurprisingly are quite attractive at 5.0 (4/1) but my tenner wont be going on this bet thanks anyway for the offer mr pp 🙂
Betornot 