Going into day 3 I have an overall profit of £9.99 over the first two days of the trial. If you have missed these posts then they can be seen by cliccking the link below Day 1 Day 2
there are also links at the bottom of the post.
Day 3 saw a total of 156 bets matched at betfair with an average stake value of 57p of which 52 dogs that were favourite 20 seconds from post time on betfair exchange went on to win their race. However this 33.3% of winning bets were not sufficient enough to produce a profit on the day. The figure was a loss of £3.24 – just 2 more winners would have seen a profit on the day.
The best performing track for favourites today was Suffolk Downs with a profit of £4.51 producing 7 winning favourites, 3 of these favourites came from trap 5 – another statistic which could help us in the future if you decide to pit wits in the trap challenge. but this is a subject for subsequent postings on this subject.
So after 3 days of the trial the 3 best performing tracks are Doncaster (£5.87) Romford (£5.24) Clonmel (£4.10) The 3 worst performing tracks are Towcester (-£3.46) Yarmouth (-£4.43) Sunderland (-£4.52) The full list is shown below
My total profit over the 3 days has now dwindled to £6.75 from £13.41 on day 1 (I wonder what the P/L would have been on the 1st of march if I had got my ducks in a row sooner. Having said that, making sure the software puts the correct bets in at the correct time is paramount especially if you are going to just leave it running throughout the day!
I am starting to build up some sort of data base now so I will begin to list best performing trap, distance and race class as we go along.
Best performing Trap (No of times trap Won over 3 days – not P/L) Trap 6 (won 82 times out of 467 races over 3 days) Best performing distance (No of Times favourite won over distance ) 480m (Favourite won 30 times out of 70 races run over 480m over 3 days) Best Performing Race Class A7 – Favourite won 17 times out of 30 A7 races run over 3 days producing a profit of £10.52! There were 7 A7 races run over a distance of 480m of which the favourite won 4 times producing a profit of £2.65 in the first 3 days of the trial.
As you can see the further I get into the trial I can build a picture of which race class and distance would be beneficial to focus on.
For a while now I have been pondering the possibility of backing the favourite at the dogs to see if there is any money to be made. Even though the rumours that greyhound racing is not the most virtuous sport you can make a wager on it is certainly the most abundant sport with over 140 races each day and that is just the UK. According to the Oxford Stadium website 35% of all favourites win! This however is across all tracks, distances and, classes of race. To this end I decided that the only true way of sorting the wheat from the chaff is to back every single favourite in every single race and use the power of excel to weed out losing statistics from the more profitable. So without ado I will post day by day findings on this blog
My criteria is simple I will back each race favourite 20 seconds before the post time to a liability of just £1.00 so in effect my average stake should be kept to about 30p per race. This means that should the favourite win then the Profit will be £1.00 and if loses the stake determined by the odds that are available at that moment in time on the betfair exchange. There have been instances where the odds of two of the dogs have been exactly the same at the 20 second point and no bet was struck. This is unfortunate but one of those things. After testing that the software worked as required on March 1st testing began in earnest on March 2nd and showed an overall profit of £13.41 with profits showing from all meetings except Crayford and Hove.
Click to Enlarge
Starting with Central Park, there were a total of 6 winning favourites giving a small profit of £2.66 The rest I will put into a table for easy reference.
Track
Winning Favs
Avg Stake
P/L
Crayford
1
45p
-£3.85
Doncaster
9 (2 Meetings)
69p
£4.73
Hove
6
£1.43 **
-£0.51
Monmore
10 (2 Meetings)
57p
£2.44
Newcastle
6
48p
£1.69
Oxford
8 (2 Meetings
63p
£1.26
Perry Barr
8
47p
£1.48
Romford
10 (2 Meetings)
53p
£3.03
Swindon
4
49p
£0.48
** Quite a few Odds On Favs Lost!!!
Crayford was quite obviously not a track to back the favourite on this day as just one favourite won, Hove had a few odds on favourites running hence the average stake of £1.43 with the shortest priced favourite of the day losing costing a massive £3.12 All in all not a bad day for the first day. There were a total of 160 races of which 64 favourites won giving a 40% win rate.
Lets go on to look at the best performing meeting of the day which was Doncaster. Producing an overall profit of £4.73 with 9 winning favourites at the 2 meetings. Of the 8 winning favourites 4 were in OR class races or Open Class and scored a 100% strike rate as did the OR3 class which accounted for 2 more winning favs. The sheer volume of information I have collected just over the last 20 days is by no means enough and in subsequent posts I will delve a little deeper into which tracks are more profitable than others using this system and which Races should be avoided on all counts after looking at the stats.
Just as a Taster the best performing track using this system between 2 March and 22 march is Nottingham with a profit of £15.89 The worst Track for winning Favourites is Sunderland with a loss of £22.03
My total profit for this period backing every race is £38.28
When you embark upon trading any sport whether it is football, racing or tennis it is so easy to watch youtube videos of trading situations and think “this is easy” and jump straight into a market and lose your bank! While in depth research can be time consuming and at points seem repetitive some basic research should be undertaken if only to improve your chances of a better strike rate on your trades. The inescapable fact about trading is no matter how well you have researched a game, match or race you will not get a profit everytime, there will always be that odd market that will go against you. Everyone on Youtube bangs on about “Risk to Reward” and it is a very viable point and the first thing you should look at is exactly how far a market is likely to move against you should a worst case scenario happen – because like as not it will probably happen. For instance: If you are trading an Under 2.5 goals market in a football match you should try and establish what the probable odds would move to if an early goal was scored before your exit point was reached. How you do this is up to you but personally I use Soccer Mystic which is a great tool that comes with Bet Angel but that is a subject for another post but the essence is to know beforehand what two exit points you would employ should the trade go against you or if you are successful. What research material is available for tennis and in-play odds that will help you in this task. The main source that I use is Tennis Trader which is a software product that comes with BetAngel. Once configured to the match you are planning to trade on you can see at a glance at what odds the market would likely be trading at if, for instance, you were laying the server in a tennis match and he/she won the game. The screenshot below shows the GAME Matrix for the 1st Game in the match between Gracheva and Galfi in the 1st round of the WTA French Open
In this match Gracheva is odds on favourite to win the match at odds of 1.36. If we were to lay her as server in this first game for a £10 stake our liability would be just £3.60. We know by looking at this matrix and following a path of events (by this I mean the points won or lost) we can quite acuratly know that if she won the game then in all likelyhood the market would move against us by just 3 or 4 ticks – See below.
If, however, Galfi plays a stroke of genius and wins the first two points then the market would move in our favour by about 10 ticks. as shown below.
From this information we can now establish some exit points that we would feel comfortable with once we have worked out what our maximum loss is likely to be. To do this we can use a simple hedge calculator as found on GoalProfits.com To work out our likely loss on this trade we simple enter the figures as shown below:
This shows that if Gracheva wins her service game and we exit at the end of the game we are only likely to lose 23p. Now that we know our likely loss on the game we can choose our exit point should Galfi win a couple of points early on in the game by doing exactly the same using the figures on the bottom of the matrix.
If Galfi won the first 2 points in the game and exited the trade at Grachevas odds of 1.46 then our profit would be 67p
Once we have established our risk to reward we can have a look at the match itself and there are various websites available to us and a favourite of mine is tennisexplorer.com and what I am looking for is any previous Head to Head matches these two have played and what surfaces to determine any trends.
We can see that on clay (depicted by the brown square) in 2019 the sets were quite close until the final set. This could suggest that games swing to and fro in early stages of the match and some further investgation is warranted. Recent form can play a big part in the research and Flashscore.com can provide point by point results of previous matches. If we now look at the first set of Galfi’s recent matches and in particular the first few games we can get a feel for how the games progress.
In these 3 recent matches you can see in Galfis’ first service game she can be a bit unsettled with points bouncing between the players and while this is going on the market is moving suggesting a trade possibility. We can now look at the same thing about her opponent
In Gracheva’s first service games it suggests that she is more aggressive winning her games with the least amount of serves in the early stages of the match. The distinct possiblity of a back to lay trade on Grachevas first service game seems viable. This is just some basic research into one match. Lets have a look what happened.
Gracheva was serving first and won her service game with ease – just 4 points played. Below is the log of this game which was captured by Betangel automation and it shows the odds every 30 seconds throughout the match and how they bounce around. This particular screenshot shows the first 3 minutes of the match and as you can see Gracheva’s odds started at 1.36 and hit a low of 1.23 – a drop of 13 ticks.
I am laughing out loud now 🤣 because if you look at the begining of the post I showed you the likely odds would drop by just 3 or 4 ticks if the first game ended like this and I think that I didn’t calibrate tennis trader before I grabbed the screen – oops I stand by the suggested trade though as the basic research showed Gracheva to be an aggressive first game player and we could still have determined our likley exit point had the trade gone against us.
13:30 at Newbury saw Inneston start as favourite at 9/4. Unfortunately he could only manage 2nd. I got my fiver back as promised no loss or profit.
Next up was the 14:05 again at Newbury where Heltenham started 7/2 jt Fav after some elephant racing with the odds for Espoir De Guye and fellow jt Fav Super Six. Having backed Heltenham earlier in the morning I also got BOG which returned £22.50 netting £17.50 profit. Finally the 15:35 at Kelso saw Forward Plan which I backed as favourite earlier in the day at odds of 11/4 was backed out of favouritism by Half Shot started at 4/1 but could only manage 3rd place earning me a £5.00 free bet
Total Profit for Friday and Saturday £42.50 plus a £5.00 free bet on #VirginBet and a £5.00 refunded stake from #SkyBet.
A Quarterfinal win in straight sets against 3rd seed Irena Begu suggests confidence on Ana Bogdan to win this semi in a similar way.
Ana Bogdan to win 2 – 1
Set Betting
50 WIN
With Ana Bogdan winning the quarters in straight sets against Begu the assumption might be that she can acomplish the same result here but Sherifs’ win in the first round in straight sets against 5th seed Bodar cannot be discounted.
Over 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
1.80
Both of these players have had straight set wins in this tournament but a couple have gone to tie breaks and with service breaks more common in Ladies tennis and that this match could well go to 3 sets an over bet might seem prudent. THIS BET WON
I just picked my seven winners for @itv7. Don’t miss your free chance to win the jackpot #ITV7 https://itv7.itv.com/play. 18+ T&Cs apply.
Betornot 