Category Archives: Beat The Drop

Tonight Brentford host Birmingham City in a game that is important to both teams. Paddy Power has posed 3 questions appertaining to this match
1. Will both teams score
2. Will Brentford be winning at half-time
3. Will there be 3 or more goals in the match
All three are good ones and there are more listed
I have decided to go for the over 2.5 goals question as it will give me a chance to explain my research methods.
As always it is best to ascertain which team is most likely to win and the match odds heavily favour 3rd place Brentford with best odds of 1.62 (61.7% Implied Probability) to win the match. These odds suggest that a Brentford victory will be quite convincing as the BTTS odds are also weighted towards No at Best Odds of 1.78. However The Odds of Brentford winning to nil are 2.45 which implies a probability of only 40.8%. This suggests that while Brentford should win comfortably there is a better than even chance that Birmingham might score!
This odds based research is most definitely giving mixed messages and before I move onto the actual stats I will look at the correct score markets just to confuse things further.
In the correct score markets I look predominantly at score lines that have less than 3 goals and these are as follows
Score Odds
1-0 6.6 (15.2% Implied Probability)
2-0 7.6 (13.2% Implied Probability)
1-1 9.0 (11.1% Implied Probability)
0-0 11.0 (9.1% Implied Probability)
0-1 17.0 (5.6% Implied Probability)
0-2 48.0 (2.1% Implied Probability)
These probabilities added together gives an overall probability of 56.3% Which in actual fact returns odds of 1.78 – exactly the odds of a No in the BTTS market!
This hasn’t really clarified the issue.
Actual goal based stats are invaluable as you saw yesterday as relying on bookmaker odds, which carry such an overround in their favour, are good only to get a general feel for the bet.
I will be looking at the over 2.5 goals stats to start with and can see straight away that Brentford, when playing at home average an over 2.5 goal rate of 56% with an average home scoring rate of 1.94 goals per game. They also have a conceding rate of 1.06. In layman’s terms this gives the impression that the score could well be 2-1.
I have not ignored Birmingham City’s ability (or lack of it) and as miniscule as it is, it is still relevant and their average goals scored when playing away is 0.74 If we couple this with Brentford’s 1.94 it gives us an average of 2.68 goals – over 2.5.
If you like this please click my like button on twitter or on here.

Having just done a blog post on researching “Will Both Teams Score” and showing the workings for the lunchtime game between Middlesbrough and Watford I thought I might use it to enter question 2 of this round.
As I said in my previous blog there can be 4 different outcomes to this question
No teams score
Team A scores and Team B doesn’t
Team B scores and Team A doesn’t
Both Teams score.
Middlesbrough are hosting Watford today and BTTS odds are as follows
Yes 1.91 – 2.1
No 1.72 – 1.87
This gives us an implied probability of -Yes 46.6% – No 53.5%
I contrast to this and as an additional research point I had a quick look athe correct score markets and found that the 1-1 market is actually the favourite at odds of 6.8. While the odds are irrelevant as far as a return on your money is concerned. In relation to the other correct score odds it might indicate the bookies are hedging a BTTS outcome. From this I conclude that perhaps the odds on a yes result can be of value and might just back it for my first bet of the week towards my “Road To Cheltenham 2022” campaign at SkyBet.
But I have Digressed and to get back on track the next market I looked at was the match odds and found that Watford were favourites at best odds of 2.3 (43.5% Implied Probability) and a Middlesbrough win can be backed at best odds of 3.85 (26% Implied Probability) With these figures in mind Recent home form of Middlesbrough indicates that having only failed to score in one game from the last 8 and the last 4 home games produced at least 1 goal the law of averages suggest that today may be another. I personally think that this conclusion can be backed up by the 1-1 correct score market being the favourite.
When playing away Watford has the same game form but scored considerably more goals in each of the games averaging 2.0 (Middlesbrough averaged 1.45) Both of these averages are what I prefer to see when I am looking at both teams scoring. These figures are for both home and away games, if we drill it down further to the last 4 home games Middlesbrough played the goal average is even better at 1.75 and Watford’s away goals average is 2.25
The “Won to Nil” Stats are also encouraging as Middlesbrough have only 37% of their home games this season and Watford’s Away “Won to Nil” percentage is even better at 16%
Lastly a look at the Head 2 Head stats and can see that even though the last twice these two teams met Watford won both to nil at home but when Middlesbrough hosted 4 out of 5 games ended with both teams scoring.

 

I do not usually get past Question 3 in Paddys Beat The Drop quest for a thousand quid but I thought i would share some insights as to how to research the different questions.
First on the list is “Will Both Teams Score?”
There can be 4 different outcomes attributed to this question:
1. No Teams Score
2. Only Team A Scores
3 . Only Team B Scores
4. Both Teams Score
The first place to visit is the odds offered by the bookmakers themselves, and predominantly the BTTS Market. For instance one of the questions today is “Will Both Teams Score in the Middlesbrough v Watford Game?.
The best place for this is that I have found is Oddschecker. This will give you an indication as to what the bookmakers are expecting the outcome to be and in this case the odds are as follows
Yes : 1.91 – 2.1
No : 1.72 – 1.87
This straight away suggests that if we take the highest odds of each outcome the implied probability of both teams scoring is Yes : 46.6% No : 53.5%
I then look at the odds for the match itself and again in this case the odds are as follows
Middlesbrough : 3.4 – 3.85
Watford : 2.1 – 2.3
Using my trusty odds converter the implied probability of Middlesbrough winning is just 26% and Watford 43.5%
As you can see, a picture is already forming. I now take this a step further and go to soccerstats.com
Soccerstats has an absolutely massive database of stats and sometimes you can over think the situation
For BTTS questions I will stick to Recent home and away form and win to nil and lose to nil stats as this is predominantly what we need
So going with recent form for Middlesbrough we find that from the last 8 home and away games they have scored in all but 1 (away to Millwall) Watford has the same form only failing to score once (Away to Bournemouth)
This suggests that this might after all be a case for a yes
The “Won to nil” stats give a further indication as to the outcome and in the case of Middlesbrough playing at home they have only “Won to Nil” in 37% of their games this season and Watford Away just 16%
The “Lost to Nil” percentages also give the same indications as they are both 21%
As a quick comparison, if we look at the bottom team in the league, Wycombe, their win to nil away percentage is 0% meaning that they have not won a game this season without conceding at least one goal and their lost to nil away percentage is 47% meaning that they have not scored when playing away in nearly half of their games.
These stats alone do not take into consideration 0-0 draws and this can be found in their scoring and “failed to score” rates
In the case of Middlesbrough their scoring rate is 74% and failed to score 26% (100%)
Watfords rates are 53% and 47% which could be a worry.
Lastly I will look at the history of the head 2 head games and these are as follows and we can see that although in the last twice that these two teams have met Watford have won to nil both time but when Middlesbrough are at home both teams have scored in all instances but one and there has never been a 0-0 draw.

11 Sep 20	Watford – Middlesbrough	1 – 0
6 Apr 15	Watford – Middlesbrough	2 – 0
25 Oct 14	Middlesbrough – Watford	1 – 1
15 Feb 14	Watford – Middlesbrough	1 – 0
9 Nov 13	Middlesbrough – Watford	2 – 2
12 Jan 13	Middlesbrough – Watford	1 – 2
6 Oct 12	Watford – Middlesbrough	1 – 2
28 Apr 12	Watford – Middlesbrough	2 – 1
5 Nov 11	Middlesbrough – Watford	1 – 0
19 Mar 11	Middlesbrough – Watford	2 – 1
25 Sep 10	Watford – Middlesbrough	3 – 1

Beat the Drop is a free feature run by Paddy Power and as a consequence a great deal of fun. Nothing is lost in real money terms when you get a question wrong but get all 12 right and £1000 is yours. If we take this question to point and after doing the research you think that it is perhaps only a 75% chance of both teams scoring then you are able to split your pot accordingly or do more research into other questions that might give a more cut and dried outcome
you can even do absolutely no research at all, split the pot for every question 50/50 and at the end of 12 questions be left with 24p – but where is the fun in that!