Todays DOB of the day is Dragon Symbol running in the 14:00 at the Ascot meeting. Preferring to lead the race and with the advantage of Oisin Murphy on board today. Murphy has failed to win on Dragon Symbol from the past 5 rides last winning at Kempton on the All-Weather back in April. While the All Weather surface seems to suit Dragon Symbol better he has won or placed in all but 1 of his 10 previous races in a varied going conditions. The racing Press have Napped him twice and has is tipped by 2 others.
Dragon Symbols Form as laid out by The In-Running Trading Tool. Click Image to enlarge in a new tab
Dragon Symbol is currently available to Back at 9.6 on the exchange at Betfair which you would lay off at odds of 4.8 in running (dont forget to click the “Keep” button when laying the bet.) Forecast odds for Dragon Symbol range about the 5.5 mark (9/2) This is the best DOB selection of the day using my own criteria on the In-Running Trading Tool. To get your free trial of this very worthwhile trading software please click the link below
Welcome to todays DOB of the Day Post where, unfortunately there is only 1 selection that meets the criteria laid down for this. La Petite Coco is running in the 14:20 at the Curragh this afternoon and whilst it would be the Ideal contender for today It has 2 horses in front of it in the betting who are both front runners and the markets probably wouldnt be able to sustain 3 selections shortening so much. Timeform pace hints favour Love and Thundering Nights the two horses in question. I am going to give this one a miss today which after my luck yesterday with the Betfair “Outage” the damned thing will probably go on to win 🙄 There are some higher priced horses in other races which I am going to set betangel in practice mode to automate the process
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I have created this automation rule to the exact instructions of the betangel maestro, Peter Webb, and I am running BetAngel in practice mode.
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The selections I have loaded into betangel are the top DOB possibilities as sorted by the In-Running Trading Tool
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If you enlarge the sceenshot above you will see why onlt La Petite Coco was the only one to meet MY criteria, Heavenly Power, Point Lonsdale, and Barrington Court are out side of the odds scope While Fast Response and Turbulance have a “red” short in running total. This is a “blind” trial as I have simply loaded the selections into betangel with instructions to back the horse 5 seconds before post time at current odds and put a corresponding DOB lay order in the market with instructions to keep when event goes in-play. I have also instructed BetAngel to record the lowest in-play traded price for the selection. I have done no other research apart from the initial findings as outlined about La Petite Coco. To get a Free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
Having had some success over the past few days with Double or Bust bets I have decided to feature a DOB of the Day Using the In-Running Trading Tool I have set the criteria at the following parameters and lets see how they do.
The “DOB of the Day” will always be the horse which meets all these conditions
DOB rate of over 85% average for all races
Short in running figure zero or greater
A “DOB return” of over £25.00
Forecast odds between 3.0 and 20
A “Runstyle” of 1 or 2
Todays horse that meets all of these conditions is:
17:30 Galway; Past Time She has a forecast S.P. of 3.25 Short in Running Figure is £9.80 Average Runstyle is 2 DOB return of £29.40 She has “DOBBED” every race run giving a 100% DOB Rate
Other factors in her favour are todays race is over 7f, a distance she has only raced at. Same jockey on board (Leigh Roche). It is the most tipped horse in the race (If thats a factor in her favour 😏) I backed her at odds of 4.4 at 12:01 for £5.00 and set an Auto Cash out for £5.00 (a simple but effective way of “DOBBING”) At 12:27 the odds have come in to 3.7
The information used for this bet has come solely from the In-Running Trading Tool There was just 1 selection yesterday which was O’Faolins Lad which went off at a B.S.P. of 14.5 and won To get a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool pleas click the link below
“Dobbing” or backing to lay a horse to double your money or bust your bank is a popular technique for making profitable trades out of losing bigger-priced horses. The knack however is picking the right horses in the right races The “In-Running Trading Tool” has an excellent page that outlines potential horses that could trade at half the B.S.P. For a trade to successfully “DOB” the In-Play Low must reach half the B.S.P. – or half the price you backed the horse at if you got a bigger price (or lower) before the off for instance: If you backed a horse on the exchange at odds of 11.00 (10/1) for £10 you would need to place a lay bet order of £20 at odds of 5.5 The In-Running Trading Tool gives some useful advice and provides all the information required to make an informed decision. Dobbing short-priced horses is possible if the odds are above evens but the price needed to lay a horse that you backed at odds of 2.5 (6/4) would need to trade in-play at a low of 1.25 (4/1 ON!) Backing higher priced front running horses can be a better option but sorting through the information provided can quickly become confusing and cause mistakes to be made. To this end I have done a little record keeping and have analysed the top priced top tipped horses which are easily found on the Horseracing.net website on the tips page On 1st September using the criteria outlined on the In-Running Trading Tool there was just 1 contender 15:50 Uttoxeter; Ship of the Fen This horse had a B.S.P. of 10 and traded in-play at a low of 4.0 easily passing the 5.0 lay bet order. Thats 1 out of 1 Horseracing.net actuall lists 5 horses in the highest priced tipped horses and the other 4 faired as follows even though they did not meet the In-Running Trading Tool Criteria 15:05 Gowran Park; No Show B.S.P. 10 In-play Low 3.75 DOB – Yes 15:30 Lingfield Park; Dourado B.S.P. 26.83 In-play Low 7.0 DOB – Yes 15:30 Lingfield Park; Smart Qibili B.S.P. 140.0 In-play Low 120 DOB – No 16:20 Uttoxeter; Begoodtoyourslf B.S.P. 6.73 In-Play low 7.2 DOB – No
If we had Dobbed all of the 5 selections we would have been in profit (3 out of 5) Just as a footnote to these 5 horses No Show also ran the day after and won carrying a 3lb penalty!!
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In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool” The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings. I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters DOB % >= 50% Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75% Win % >= 20% These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site. This gave me this screen
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The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were 15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden 15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt 15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame 16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord 17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel 18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings 18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark 18:45 Kempton; Altraif 19:15 Kempton; Jumbly 19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list Love is Golden amd Jumbly Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board. By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:
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We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality. In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded
Back Bet
Lay bet
The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5 A successful Trade! Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam. With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!
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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.
Similar to trading a 15 tick drop, this system allows the trade to trading price to drop to 50% of the back price and lay at double the stake. for instance if you back a horse at 10/1 (11.00) for £10.00 to double your stake you would need to lay the horse in running at odds of 9/2 (5.50) at a stake of £20.00! The calculation is as follows Back £10.00 @ 11.00 returns a £100.00 profit (£10 stake x 11.00 Odds – £10 stake = £100) if the horse wins, -£10.00 if it loses Lay £20.00 @ 5.50 will give a loss of £90 (£20.00 stake x 5.5 odds – £20.00 stake) if the horse wins, £20.00 profit if it loses. So if the horse wins we win £10.00 (£100 – £90) and if the horse loses we win £10.00 (£20 – £10) There would also be a commission to pay at what ever rate betfair charge you on your account, in my case it is 2% so I would be left with a £9.80 profit. and its doesn’t matter if the horse wins or loses. This part is simple enough the hard part is finding suitable horses in which this strategy has a greater chance of happening than others. Every horse that wins, DOBs this is a fact! so you might be excused to think that if you DOB all favourites then you should be in profit but the figures for all outright favourites winning in 2020 was just over 35% and some of the other 65% of losers would undoubtedly have DOBbed but we are looking for a more cast iron way of picking suitable runners. This is where the nice people at “In Running Trading Tool” website come in. In their “simple DOB strategy they recommend the following criteria
Eliminate all horses that have a DOB% rate of 84.99% or less
Eliminate all horses that have a “ShortinRunning” figure that is a negative
There is no criteria mentioned for forecast odds or win% rate.
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As you can see from the screen shot above there are only 2 suitable selections for today and while the picture is not as clear as I would like I have also “Expanded” the stats for each runner to show their BSP and in-play low prices for all of their previous races to try and get a feel for the prices involved and how they ran
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I have zoomed in on the first runner to try and make it a bit clearer so you can see that Sol Del Mar hasn’t looked like winning in all three of its previous races coming 17th, 11th, and 10th. It is however ridden by Conor Hoban who, in his 2 previous rides convinced the traders to back him in running to low prices of 8.00 and 16.00 from B.S.P.s of 80.52 and 471.69 respectively. With these facts in the back of my mind I am going to set the betangel software that I use for trading to back these 2 runners at best price 10 seconds before post time and to trade out at 50% tick drop during in-play I will post the resulting profit or loss on a post tomorrow The beauty of using the in running trading tool is that yesterdays figures can be called as they were posted on the day and without the days results incorporated into the stats so that you can actually do a real time analysis of the criteria knowing in advance the result
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Betornot 