Category Archives: Free bet Challenge

FreeBet if 2nd or 3rd (Wednesday 28th March 23)

Continuing my analysis of backing the favourite to earn a free bet if placed I should include Monday and Tuesdays results.
Mondays races started with the 13:45 at Lingfield and the favourite when I backed the horse at 10:28 that morning was Hiromichi

The second race was from Wincanton and again when I placed the bet The Kings Writ was favourite at odds of 4.33. He failed to place coming in 4th of 8.

Total profit for Monday was £12.50 taking the total tally to £55.00 and a free bet of £5.00 which I used on the Austria v Estonia Euro Qualifying game as a Correct Score bet on 2-1 This also Won taking the total profit upto Monday night to £95.00

Tuesday
First race was Huntingdon at 14:30 and I Backed Keplerian at odds of 4.33(fav at the time) This was a Non Runner and as I had already made a cash bet on this race I am not entirely sure if a subsequent bet would qualify for the promotion but it was the favourite Master Malcolm that won at odds of 3/1

The second promotional race from #virginbet was the 15:45 at Hexham where I backed the favourite Lewa House at odds of 3.25. Lewa House placed giving me a £5.00 free bet.

Total loss for Tuesday £5.00 but a £5.00 free bet gained
Total Tally so far Profit of £90.00 plus a new free bet to play with.

Wednesdays bets are as follows.

FreeBet if 2nd or 3rd Saturdays results

Firstly SkyBet and their CASH back if 2nd or 3rd

13:30 at Newbury saw Inneston start as favourite at 9/4. Unfortunately he could only manage 2nd. I got my fiver back as promised no loss or profit.

Next up was the 14:05 again at Newbury where Heltenham started 7/2 jt Fav after some elephant racing with the odds for Espoir De Guye and fellow jt Fav Super Six. Having backed Heltenham earlier in the morning I also got BOG which returned £22.50 netting £17.50 profit.
Finally the 15:35 at Kelso saw Forward Plan which I backed as favourite earlier in the day at odds of 11/4 was backed out of favouritism by Half Shot started at 4/1 but could only manage 3rd place earning me a £5.00 free bet

Total Profit for Friday and Saturday £42.50 plus a £5.00 free bet on #VirginBet and a £5.00 refunded stake from #SkyBet.

Money back as Cash if 2nd or 3rd

SkyBet offer a similar promotion to virginBet where they offer CASH back instead of a freebet if your chosen horse places 2nd or 3rd. Todays race is 13:30 at Newbury and is never the same race as virginbet offer so you cant hedge your bet to try and catch the race with 2 runners.
Todays race is a Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f and they dont offer BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed)
Using stats from Adrian Masseys website the following can be assumed to be true as he is meticulous when he complies his stats.
From 2003 to 2022 there were 17720 handicap hurdle races run in Great Britain of these just 29% of favourites won and 57% placed. 
Newbury has hosted 281 handicap hurdle races where just 28% of favourites won and 55% placed giving a slightly less chance here of the favourite either winning or placing here as opposed to the overall chance of 86%
It looks like SkyBet have chosen their race well in that they have a 72% chance of the favourite not winning. That being said however there is a statistical chance of you either winning or getting your cash back of 83%

I have backed the favourite Inneston at odds of 3.25 for a fiver

FreeBet if 2nd or 3rd

Following on from yesterdays post where both favourites won at odds of 3/1 and 15/2 giving me a profit of just under £25.00 Todays two races offering a freebet by #VirginBet are
Race 1 14:05 at Newbury
Race 2 15:35 at Kelso

Race 1
2 1/2 mile Handicap chase
#adrianmassey stats for this type of race read as follows
17796 bets on the favourite resulted in 30% winning and 53% placing giving an 83% chance of the favourite either winning or placing. In March this rises slightly to 84% with 31% of favourites winning. However on races run on a Saturday only 26% of favourites won and just 51% placed. Todays going is officially Soft and of the 3855 races run between 2003 and 2022 on this ground there is still an 82% chance of the favourite winning or placing. There have been 402 Handicap races run in the time frame at Newbury and 85% of favourites won or placed here.
There is very little difference between this race and both handicap hurdles of yesterday in terms of stats and will post results of Fav and price later. At the time of writing this there is no market available by #VirginBet but other bookmakers are making Heltenham favourite trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by Harry Skelton.

Race 2
3 1/4 mile Handicap chase
This distance has a 30% chance of the favourite winning and a significant lower chance of just 52% of placing but overall a 82% chance of either winning or placing. The going is good to soft with rain expected today perhaps softening the ground a bit more. The good to soft ground raises the expected place percentage to 54% leaving a 14% chance the favourite will not win or place. The present posted favourite, Forward Plan, has won over this distance on both good and soft ground pointing us toward another bet that will either win or a return in the form of a free bet.
Results will be posted later

Backing the Favourite in races that bookies promote with a free bet if 2nd or 3rd

A promotion offered by bookies that is becoming more common is the free bet if your horse comes 2nd or 3rd. This type of promotion started witha free bet if your horse finished 2nd to the favourite which encouraged punters to back non-favourite horses, can they stoop any lower? one asks. Evolving from this is the promotion free bet if 2nd or 3rd which if we really think about this the logical bet would be the favourite.

Today (24 March 2023) VirginBet are promoting two races the first is at Musselburgh at 13:50 a 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdle. Using stats from Adrian Masseys website the following can be assumed to be true as he is meticulous when he complies his stats.
From 2003 to 2022 there were 17720 handicap hurdle races run in Great Britain of these just 29% of favourites won and 57% placed. At Musselburgh 32% of favs won and 57% placed. If we drill it down to distance 30% of favourites won over 2m to 2m 1furlong and 58% placed. The official going today at Musselburgh is good to soft and just 28% of favourites won on this ground and 58% placed. The figures are similar for second race of the day prize money day of the week month of the year. In all about 85% of all favourites in a handicap hurdle will either win or more likely place so again the bookies have done their homework and there is about a 58% chance that the favourite will not win but place and a 14% chance that they wont be paying out anything.
In this case The favourite won and at 3/1 The SP 2nd and 3rd favourites Maimie’s Magic (5/1) and Poppy Rose (11/2) came 6th and UR respectively.

Second race that virgin are offering their free bet if 2nd or 3rd is the 16:20 at Hereford, another Handicap Hurdle being run over 2 1/2 miles as well as being on the same good to soft ground. Hereford has a slightly lower percentage of winning favourites than Musselburgh at 29% but still an 86% chance of the favourite winning or placing over all.
In the case of this race the favourite won again at S.P. odds of 15/8. Both the 2nd and 3rd Favourites pulled up 2 out.

Today the bookies lost and I won