Back to Fontwell again today for bet No 2 and I have discarded my original stake of £2.00 placing the total profit so far of £3.15 at odds of 3.05. This will make my Lay order of a 15 tick drop at 2.72 for a stake of £3.56 Having an average tick drop of 166 the highest in-play low price was 1.2 when it ran at Uttoxeter in Jul this year and winning at Worcester 30 days ago
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As with all of these Back to Lay selections this has been picked using the back to lay feature of the In-Running Trading Tool of which a free trial can be obtained by clicking the link below
The first Back to Lay selection today is Friend or Foe running in the 14:00 at Warwick. I have backed it at for £3.38 (my origional stake plus profit from yesterday) at odds of 2.92 as the odds were falling but it seems I was a bit premature as the market has drifted out a bit to 3.05 as I write this. My lay order of £3.80 at a 15 tick drop to 2.62 probably wont get matched before the off but I am hopeful that the traders will help me out as the race gets under way. Having just watched his debut into chase racing on the 1st May this year , he was content to sit at second until about the 3rd from home where Briony Frost let him have his head and motored to victory, winning by nearly 5 lengths. His last outing as a hurdler was on heavy ground at Wincanton and he didn’t fare too well finishing 4th out of 5 finishers in the Betway Kingwell Hurdle on the 20th February 70 days previous . Making heavy work out of the heavy going it is plain that the going today at Warwick should suit him as the distance of 2m and good going seem to agree with him. Harry Cobden rides him today instead of Briony Frost but has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 rides. His other ride on Friend or Foe was on the 23 march 2019 where he came 10th over a bigger distance of 2m3f. At the 2 mile point he was just disputing the lead but faded badly after 2nd from home fortifying the desision to run him at 2m or there about to optimise his talent. With 1 hour to go before the off the market on Friend or Foe is static at about 3.05-3.10 For more Back to lay selections and other in running trading opportunities a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by clicking the link below.
Welcome to todays DOB of the Day Post where, unfortunately there is only 1 selection that meets the criteria laid down for this. La Petite Coco is running in the 14:20 at the Curragh this afternoon and whilst it would be the Ideal contender for today It has 2 horses in front of it in the betting who are both front runners and the markets probably wouldnt be able to sustain 3 selections shortening so much. Timeform pace hints favour Love and Thundering Nights the two horses in question. I am going to give this one a miss today which after my luck yesterday with the Betfair “Outage” the damned thing will probably go on to win 🙄 There are some higher priced horses in other races which I am going to set betangel in practice mode to automate the process
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I have created this automation rule to the exact instructions of the betangel maestro, Peter Webb, and I am running BetAngel in practice mode.
To get a free 14 day trial of the Betangel software by clicking the link below
The selections I have loaded into betangel are the top DOB possibilities as sorted by the In-Running Trading Tool
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If you enlarge the sceenshot above you will see why onlt La Petite Coco was the only one to meet MY criteria, Heavenly Power, Point Lonsdale, and Barrington Court are out side of the odds scope While Fast Response and Turbulance have a “red” short in running total. This is a “blind” trial as I have simply loaded the selections into betangel with instructions to back the horse 5 seconds before post time at current odds and put a corresponding DOB lay order in the market with instructions to keep when event goes in-play. I have also instructed BetAngel to record the lowest in-play traded price for the selection. I have done no other research apart from the initial findings as outlined about La Petite Coco. To get a Free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
Todays DOB of the Day is Makinitup running at Sandown this afternoon in the 15:35. Making the criteria easily this 3 yr old filly has raced 3 times winning twice. This is the first Handicap she has raced in but it seems that she is in the very capable hands of Cameron Noble as Timeform have posted this in their “Specific Pace Notes” – “Hold-up horses normally aren’t favoured at this trip here and the pace forecast suggests MAKINITUP (IRE) should still be better placed than AREEHAA (IRE) to take advantage.” A slight negative to this is that she is yet to run over good ground competitively and the market should be watched nearer post time to see where the money is going. I however have thrown caution to the wind and Backed her at odds of 4.3 and placed my lay order into the market at odds of 2.13
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As you can see her forecast odds are 3.25 so I am hoping that the market will come in closer to post time shortening the gap to my lay order. If you look closely at the image above you can see that as the pace note say Areehaa might well run from the front but is perhaps unable to sustain this as her DOB rate is just 50% and in actual fact she has drifted slightly in the market in response to money going onto Pearl bay who has been backed into 6.2 from about 6.8 a few minutes ago. There is now just 40 minutes to post time and I apologise for the lateness of the post but I had a Puncture last Night putting me about 3 hours behind – Fridays!!!
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Yesterday was another successful trade with Anmaat winning makes that £10.00 profit less a bit of commission. Today there were 2 possibles but Kawida in the 14:40 at Doncaster is now a non runner, leaving Free Wind in the race after at 15:15 To remind you of the criteria
DOB rate of over 85% average for all races
Short in running figure zero or greater
A “DOB return” of over £25.00
Forecast odds between 3.0 and 20
A “Runstyle” of 1 or 2
Todays selection meets all of these conditions. Early this morning I backed it on the exchange at odds of 3.85 and subsequently put my lay bet order in as soon as the back bet was matched. (I should point out at this stage that there was a significant gap between the back odds and the lay odds (3.4 to back and 3.9 to lay) so I simply asked for a £5.00 back bet at 3.85 this was matched quite quickly so it is well worth NOT taking the back odds as is, and trying for a bit more. By doing this I have gained 9 ticks, not much I know but every little helps. At some point in the morning Glenartny was withdrawn at odds of about 15.00 so the rule 4 was invoked and now my back odds are 3.6 and Betfair has automatically adjusted my lay bet so no harm done. All that been said there are a couple of points to fortify the decision to Dob this horse. In its previous race (which is not shown in the In-Running Trading Tool) Free Wind was ridden by Frankie Dettori in Deauville to victory over a mile and a half in August beating the favourite by 1 and a half lengths showing that there is a horse/jockey connection to todays race as Dettori hadn’t ridden Free Wind before.
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After yesterday’s success with Past Time, I am £5.00 in profit after backing her at 4.4 and she traded at 1.77, 33 ticks below the required 2.2, we move onto today’s DOB of the Day. Running at Doncaster in the 16:30, Anmaat has forecast odds of 4.00 and a DOB percentage of 100%. £49.00 reflects the 5/5 times he has run and “DOBBED” With an average racestyle of 1 he prefers to lead or just tuck in behind the leader and after looking at his previous runs seems to make his move 2f out and giving all in the final furlong. One concern would have been if the going was good to soft as a previous race was lost seemingly due to the ground not being exactly to his liking and tiring him 100 yds from the finish allowing Encourage to win by 3/4 length. that being said an in play low price of 1.33 suggests the work was done inside the 2nd furlong from home. I actually backed him at 5 o’clock this morning at odds of 5.7 so my exit price is 2.86 This price is still available There is more information today and I am grateful for the additional resources provided by #caanberry and #timeform which is ever-present on one or more of my computer screens There is one other possible DOB candidate but it fails on the short in- running condition. This is Al Simmo in the race after Anmaar’s at 5 o’clock full details and a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be had by clicking the link below
Having had some success over the past few days with Double or Bust bets I have decided to feature a DOB of the Day Using the In-Running Trading Tool I have set the criteria at the following parameters and lets see how they do.
The “DOB of the Day” will always be the horse which meets all these conditions
DOB rate of over 85% average for all races
Short in running figure zero or greater
A “DOB return” of over £25.00
Forecast odds between 3.0 and 20
A “Runstyle” of 1 or 2
Todays horse that meets all of these conditions is:
17:30 Galway; Past Time She has a forecast S.P. of 3.25 Short in Running Figure is £9.80 Average Runstyle is 2 DOB return of £29.40 She has “DOBBED” every race run giving a 100% DOB Rate
Other factors in her favour are todays race is over 7f, a distance she has only raced at. Same jockey on board (Leigh Roche). It is the most tipped horse in the race (If thats a factor in her favour 😏) I backed her at odds of 4.4 at 12:01 for £5.00 and set an Auto Cash out for £5.00 (a simple but effective way of “DOBBING”) At 12:27 the odds have come in to 3.7
The information used for this bet has come solely from the In-Running Trading Tool There was just 1 selection yesterday which was O’Faolins Lad which went off at a B.S.P. of 14.5 and won To get a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool pleas click the link below
“Dobbing” or backing to lay a horse to double your money or bust your bank is a popular technique for making profitable trades out of losing bigger-priced horses. The knack however is picking the right horses in the right races The “In-Running Trading Tool” has an excellent page that outlines potential horses that could trade at half the B.S.P. For a trade to successfully “DOB” the In-Play Low must reach half the B.S.P. – or half the price you backed the horse at if you got a bigger price (or lower) before the off for instance: If you backed a horse on the exchange at odds of 11.00 (10/1) for £10 you would need to place a lay bet order of £20 at odds of 5.5 The In-Running Trading Tool gives some useful advice and provides all the information required to make an informed decision. Dobbing short-priced horses is possible if the odds are above evens but the price needed to lay a horse that you backed at odds of 2.5 (6/4) would need to trade in-play at a low of 1.25 (4/1 ON!) Backing higher priced front running horses can be a better option but sorting through the information provided can quickly become confusing and cause mistakes to be made. To this end I have done a little record keeping and have analysed the top priced top tipped horses which are easily found on the Horseracing.net website on the tips page On 1st September using the criteria outlined on the In-Running Trading Tool there was just 1 contender 15:50 Uttoxeter; Ship of the Fen This horse had a B.S.P. of 10 and traded in-play at a low of 4.0 easily passing the 5.0 lay bet order. Thats 1 out of 1 Horseracing.net actuall lists 5 horses in the highest priced tipped horses and the other 4 faired as follows even though they did not meet the In-Running Trading Tool Criteria 15:05 Gowran Park; No Show B.S.P. 10 In-play Low 3.75 DOB – Yes 15:30 Lingfield Park; Dourado B.S.P. 26.83 In-play Low 7.0 DOB – Yes 15:30 Lingfield Park; Smart Qibili B.S.P. 140.0 In-play Low 120 DOB – No 16:20 Uttoxeter; Begoodtoyourslf B.S.P. 6.73 In-Play low 7.2 DOB – No
If we had Dobbed all of the 5 selections we would have been in profit (3 out of 5) Just as a footnote to these 5 horses No Show also ran the day after and won carrying a 3lb penalty!!
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Saturday saw the start of a system that has shown promise, where frustration reigned in regards to well-tipped, short-priced favourites not producing winning performances. When I say Saturday I really mean that I had a 20-20 hindsight day for Friday where I had the fortune of being able to see the results as I mashed the criteria. As you would expect, I got a 100% win rate – who wouldn’t. The two horses concerned were Love is Golden and Jumbly Jumbly won its race but Love is Golden definitely did not but both were low “in-play traders” making it possible to create a small profit from both runners instead of a level stake loss! Applying the same criteria to Saturdays Top Tipped Horses I got 3 horses 14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi 14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge 18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock Loves Me Likearock won its race but the other 2 failed – miserably! However, all three managed at least a 15 tick in play drop from their B.S.P. making the tally so far 5 out of 5 with three of the top tipped selections losing their race Happy days so far then Sunday gave up just 2 selections 14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips) 14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips) Minella Trump won and a B.S.P. of 1.72 soon passed the 15 tick mark after climbing to an in-play high of 2.34 the half length that it won by might have had me twitching a bit if I had been watching but a win is a win. Bigbadmattie on the other hand, despite being quite heavily tipped was not favourite and went off at a B.S.P. of 3.4 and according to Timeform traded in-play at a low of 3.2. this is just 4 ticks. However! I actually backed and laid this race and horse and my lay bet of 2.8 was matched during the race
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I am going to take this as a winner for the system – It would/might have not been totally matched if the bet was more than a tenner 7 from 7 for me and only 3 from 7 as regards to outright winners from the experts. On to today and there is just one selection that meets the criteria 14:10 Newton Abbott; Kilmington Rose A race of just 3 runners and I have just backed it at 1.64! This will have to trade as low as 1.49 for a 15 tick drop
Please take a look at my other posts regarding this system if you want to learn more and a 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by Clicking the link below
Alotaibi was forecast at an S.P. of 1.33 and you would be excused from thinking that with 10 tips from the National Racing Press “Experts” that this is surely one of those banker moments – Alas it was not to be as Wanees came home in front! However Alotaibi did have a B.S.P. of 1.85 which was 13 ticks more than the industry S.P. and reached an in-play Low of 1.4! This was in fact a 45 tick drop – more than enough to meet our requirements of 1.7 for 15 ticks and a small profit Valley Forge with 11 tips and a NAP pushing it along and an attractive forecast S.P. of 3.00 (2/1) many a punter would think that it is “money back time” This was not to be unfortunately as Valley Forge managed just 3rd out of a field of 6. But as it turned out all was not lost as the B.S.P. was 2.51 and his in-play low dipped to 2.00 giving a tick drop of 25. This gave an in running profit of 12.8% With 2 out of 2 losers as far as the straight punters were concerned, I on the other hand have an overall profit of 10% on my stakes. The evening meeting at Wolverhampton and my last selection in this system was most tipped horse with 12 tips, Loves Me Likearock. Winning by just half a length very nearly made it 3 disasters for the favourite backers. Going off at 2.07 at the Betfair exchange traded to the lowest possible at 1.01 and another win for the system and finishing up 10% up on my stakes
There are just 2 selections today (5th Sept) 14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips) 14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
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The screenshot above shows the form and other stats for the two horses To get a free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
Betornot 