Category Archives: In play trading

Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections

In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool”
The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings.
I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters
DOB % >= 50%
Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75%
Win % >= 20%
These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site.
This gave me this screen

Click the picture to enlarge in another tab

The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were
15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden
15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt
15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame
16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord
17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel
18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings
18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark
18:45 Kempton; Altraif
19:15 Kempton; Jumbly
19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express
Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list
Love is Golden amd Jumbly
Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board.
By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:

Click the image to open in a new tab

We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality.
In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded

Back Bet
Lay bet

The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5
A successful Trade!
Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark
Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam.
With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths
You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet
Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!

To get a free 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool click the banner below. Please like this post if you want more posts in the same vein.

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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

There are 3 horses meeting the criteria today (4th Sept)
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock

Please bet responsibly

Todays Top Tipped Horses (Monday 30 Aug) No 1 Prop Forward

The first of todays top tipped horses is Prop Forward in the 13:30 at Wolverhampton
I have just Backed it at 2.02 on the betfair exchange for £10.00 and have put in a lay bet order for £10.98 at lay odds of 1.86 (15 ticks below 2.02)

Having run just twice the last time out at Bath the BSP was 2.28 at Bath on 4th August which it won (i-p low of 1.01) achieving a 113 tick drop. The time before that it ran at Salisbury with a BSP of 4.62 coming second with an in-play low of 1.11 – a total tick drop of 165 ticks
Its run style in both races was 1 which means that it prefers to run from the front
It has already reched odds of 1.7 meaning that before the race even started I have a 76p profit win or lose

All these stats and more are available on the in-running trading tool website Click the link below to get a 7 day free trial

In running trading tool

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3 Results

Just 2 horses finished 1st yesterday from the 10 most tipped horses and these were Finest Sound and Find both running at Yarmouth. An absolute disastrous day as far as level bet wagering was concerned, however, as in the previous 2 days there was a 100% strike rate in the 15 tick drop system. This makes it 30 for 30. In the table below you can see that there were a couple of near things but the facts remain, from the 3 days trialled I have come away with profits each day.

HorseMeeting TimeTipsB.S.P.i-p Low15 TickResult
Mahanakhen PowerYarmouth13:3073.811.63.052nd
BeltaneBeverley13:55112.531.852.222nd
Finest SoundYarmouth14:0582.961.012.661st
FindYarmouth14:40111.341.011.191st
Firth of ClydeGoodwood14:50111.591.091.442nd
Epic PassGoodwood15:2582.221.931.962nd
RhoscolynGoodwood16:0065.233.83.853rd
Just FineGoodwood16:3572.361.882.06Last
Molly ShawYarmouth17:0073.822.23.054th
Cool SpiritBeverley17:2073.572.642.927th

Todays’ top tipped horses are, as with previous posts in this study, exported from the In-Running Trading tool website in the form of an easy to view spreadsheet. Included in this information is each runners previous BSP and in-play low odds as well as its average tick drop for all races it has run in.

top-tipped-30aug2021Download

I have also included for your convenience my own 15 tick drop calculator simply enter your back odds and stake in the appropriate boxes and the odds for a 15 tickdrop and the required stake to obtain a level profit if the horse wins or loses will automatically be shown. The commission rate is set at 2% by default and this can also be changed by entering your own rate.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

If you want to learn more on trading in play and want free access to all the stats provided by In Running Trading Tool you can get a free 7 day trial of the In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below.

In-Running Trading Tool

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3

With a 100% strike rate can this system make it 3 days in a row. Sundays are notoriously frustrating in the tipsters department – perhaps it is the drowning of their sorrows after yet another week of failed NAPs and felled favourites or just ashamed to show their faces but there never seems to be the same amount of tips submitted on Sundays. That being said when they band together in splendid isolation it seems that sometimes they know something. Yesterdays crop of 10 most tipped horses managed a win strike percentage of 60% but more importantly they ALL traded in play 15 ticks below their B.S.P. Admittedly the returns on these trades are minimal and just 1 failed trade would wipe out the days profit, but if we were to lay the trade at the same odds but with just a covering stake if the horse went on to win – which 7 did on Friday and 6 yesterday – the maths changes significantly. For Instance
The first horse in the list yesterday was Barn Owl which went of at a BSP of 3.05 and won
If we had laid to an equal profit at 15 ticks the lay stake would have been £11.30 at odd of 2.72 if we had backed it at £10.00 we would have come away with a £1.07 profit if the horse won or lost.
Alternatively if we had Underlaid with a lay stake of £10.20 if the horse won (which it did) the profit rises to £2.96 but breaks even if the horse loses, winning or losing nothing. Something to think about if this study pans out to be a viable system.
Anyway yesterdays full results are as follows

HorseMeetingTimeTipsBSPi-p low15 tick oddsResult
Barn OwlBeverley14:0583.051.012.721st
ManaccanNewmarket14:1082.391.012.081st
GladiatorialCartmel14:5091.651.011.51st
NaganoGoodwood15:00101.751.091.62nd
AquamanNewmarket15:2092.632.32.323rd
Live Your DreamNewmarket15:5591.991.821.844th
FireworksBeverley17:00121.161.011.011st
Bellstreet BridieRedcar17:40102.421.62.122nd
AlqamarCartmel17:50102.681.012.381st
Solid StoneWindsor18:3093.661.012.961st

Totays top tipped horses are provided below as a spreadsheet exported from In Running Trading Tool and lists the runners, previous form, previous BSP and in-play lows, running style, and a whole host of other information.
Simply click download to have this information at your fingertips

top-tipped-29aug2021Download

Also provided to help you determine the 15 tick drop needed I provide my own Tick drop calculator
To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

To get the previous 2 blogs on this study click the link below

Yesterdays Post

It will open in a new window for your convenience.

To get a free 7 day trial of the information that is provided by In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further

Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below

top-tipped-27aug2021Download

Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.

HorseMeetingTimeTipsBSPi-p low15 tick oddsresult
Silk RomanceNewmarket13:10111.751.011.61st
Razzle DazzleNewmarket14:2091.951.011.81st
Percy’s PrideFfos Las15:05101.421.011.271st
AlhezabrFfos Las15:40102.041.081.872nd
AsjadFfos Las16:10131.791.121.642nd
Kentucky RoseHamilton16:3593.921.13.142nd
Thunder LegendHamilton17:10111.671.011.521st
Sweet BelieverHamilton18:10121.831.011.681st
Country PyleGoodwood18:23142.681.132.323rd
MahrajaanHamilton18:40102.441.012.141st

As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed!
I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below

betfair-tick-counterDownload

To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below



top-tipped-28aug2021Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections (Monday 23rd Aug 2021)

Using the same criteria even though one runner yesterday went out of scope on the B.S.P. there are two probable selections for today
Just to remind you of the criteria

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5


The first is Café Sydney in the 15:15 at Brighton. With a win rate percentage of 16.67 and a forecasted B.S.P. of 13.00 Mollie Phillips has piloted this horse to a 65 tick drop at Leicester last time out and a massive 193 tick drop at its last time running here at Brighton. I think that it is worth mentioning the “Race style” column on the spreadsheet. This is represented by the numbers 1-4 with 1 being a front runner and 4 liking the veiw of the other horses arses! The average race style of Cafe Sydney is 3 but in its last 7 Runnings 3 of which it won, albeit on the all weather, the actual race style was 4 and only once did it not meet the 15 tick drop threshold and that was at Windsor on soft ground. This suggests that it likes other horses to make the running and then break from behind but doesn’t like soft going. With the going at Brighton this afternoon being good, hopes are high for this one.
The second selection on the list is Ballon Onabudget (who thinks these names up?) which has a forecasted B.S.P. of just 3.50 and looking at the betting markets is currently 3rd fav at 4.5 at SkyBet. A winrate % of 20.05% and running over 2 miles today instead of its usual 3ish miles (its last 9 outings have been between 2m6f and 3m2f. Its average race style is actually 3 but the last twice it ran over todays distance it was 2 hinting that at the shorter distance it likes to be in touch with the leader in the hopes of making that final break for it near the end. With only 5 runners in the race today I think that on previous form and with Johnathan Burke on board we may have a 1-2 clean up today lets face it I need it after yesterday.
As I have done previously I have provided the spreadsheet detailing these two runners form, race styles and starting odds etc. for download by clicking the link below

inrunningtradingtool-26Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Sundays Results

Hi All
I will get straight into the results so I can post todays selections in my next post
Yesterday there were 3 possible selections for the 15 tick drop strategy all at different racecourses
The first on the list was Viking Ruby running at Worcester in the 13:35, Far from being favourite it went off at odds of 24.9 on Betfair and the in-play low price got to 8.4 before the traders gave up. Although this B.S.P. is out of our scope it is worth logging as these rules are not set in stone and I can adjust them as more results play out. The 15 tick drop price would have been 15.00 so this would have been a complete success giving a healthy £6.02 profit after Commission had been deducted
Middle for Diddle was Affable running in the 15:30 at Naas. A healthy in scope B.S.P. of 11.00 rose to an in-play low of 15.00 which means that the jockey must have put the damned horse in reverse at the start losing £10.00 into the bargain.
Lastly, and fortunately a placed horse Beyond Equal started with a healthy in scope B.S.P. of 9.40 dropped to an in-play low of just 2.00 which easily met our 15 tick target of 6.4 and after betfair commission has been paid I was left with £4.18 profit.
In summary then with one runner out of scope I lost £5.82 on day 1 to £10.00 stakes
No one can accuse me of waiting until I had a winning day to start my study.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections

With a 100% success yesterday the selections for this study as determined by the criteria defined on In Running Trading Tool website are as follows

  1. Viking Ruby 13:35 Worcester
  2. Affable 15:30 Naas
  3. Beyond Equal 17:20 Sandown

Viking Ruby has a forecast B.S.P of 13.00 and a “Short In Running” return of £17.00. A win rate percentage of 15.79% put it just within the parameters required
Affable has the biggest win rate percentage of 23.53% and a forecast B.S.P. of just 6.00. “Short In Running” returns are £3.50 and an average “Tick Drop” of 94!
Beyond Equal with a forecast B.S.P. of 11.00 and a profitable “Short In Running” figure of £3.50 as well as a 20% win rate percentage
As yesterday the complete form, previous B.S.P and in play low prices along with average race style and a host of other information is availale in the form of a spreadsheet that you can download from the link below.

inrunningtradingtool-24Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

Trading a Horse at 15 tick drop in-play 21 Aug update

Carrying on from yesterdays post I outlined the nuts and bolts of trading a horse in play after backing it at B.S.P. (Betfair Starting Price). This system of trading uses a specific set of criteria pulled from the In Running Trading Tool website.

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

Using this determined that there were 4 possible selections. These were
Wrenthorpe 15:20 Chester
Pablo Escobar 15:35 York
Robin Des Foret 16:35 Killarney
Cockalorum 16:45 York
These horses and their form were provided in the form of a spreadsheet which I posted for download and if you missed it you can download it below

inrunningtradingtool-23Download

Starting with Wrenthorpe
The B.S.P. forecast was 17.00 but actually went of at 32.00 making it move outside of the scope and therefore disqualifying it from the system but it did go on to trade inplay at a low of 16.5 with the 15 tick threshold at 18.00 would have made a successful trade. making a £7.10 profit to a £10.00 stake after commission deductions.
Pablo Escobar
The B.S.P. forecast was 21 just qualifying for the study but went off at a massive 65 15 ticks below this price is 28 but it went on to trade at 17. had we have initiated this trade when the market hit 28.00 we would have made a £12.41 profit to our £10.00 stake. The horse actually finished 8th out of 20, 10 lengths off the winner!
Robin Des Foret
With the lowest forecast B.S.P. yet at 13.00 this seemed as though we may have seen a bet placed ready for a trade but fortunately, in hindsight, the B.S.P. was in fact 35.76 making the 15 tick trade point 19.00. It only traded at an in-play low of 24.00 potentially losing us our £10.00 stake
Cockalorum
This was the last selection meeting the potential criteria and actually went off 3 ticks below the forecast B.S.P. of 17.00 at 16.70 trading inplay at a low of 4.2. Our 15 tick trade point was 9.6 making a £6.80 profit to a £10.00 stake.

In summary then of the 4 possible selections the only horse to actually start within the parameters was Cockalorum and did handsomely putting us £6.80 up on day 1.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool