Category Archives: Most Tipped Horses

Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections

In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool”
The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings.
I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters
DOB % >= 50%
Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75%
Win % >= 20%
These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site.
This gave me this screen

Click the picture to enlarge in another tab

The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were
15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden
15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt
15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame
16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord
17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel
18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings
18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark
18:45 Kempton; Altraif
19:15 Kempton; Jumbly
19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express
Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list
Love is Golden amd Jumbly
Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board.
By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:

Click the image to open in a new tab

We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality.
In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded

Back Bet
Lay bet

The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5
A successful Trade!
Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark
Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam.
With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths
You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet
Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!

To get a free 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool click the banner below. Please like this post if you want more posts in the same vein.

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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

There are 3 horses meeting the criteria today (4th Sept)
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock

Please bet responsibly

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3 Results

Just 2 horses finished 1st yesterday from the 10 most tipped horses and these were Finest Sound and Find both running at Yarmouth. An absolute disastrous day as far as level bet wagering was concerned, however, as in the previous 2 days there was a 100% strike rate in the 15 tick drop system. This makes it 30 for 30. In the table below you can see that there were a couple of near things but the facts remain, from the 3 days trialled I have come away with profits each day.

HorseMeeting TimeTipsB.S.P.i-p Low15 TickResult
Mahanakhen PowerYarmouth13:3073.811.63.052nd
BeltaneBeverley13:55112.531.852.222nd
Finest SoundYarmouth14:0582.961.012.661st
FindYarmouth14:40111.341.011.191st
Firth of ClydeGoodwood14:50111.591.091.442nd
Epic PassGoodwood15:2582.221.931.962nd
RhoscolynGoodwood16:0065.233.83.853rd
Just FineGoodwood16:3572.361.882.06Last
Molly ShawYarmouth17:0073.822.23.054th
Cool SpiritBeverley17:2073.572.642.927th

Todays’ top tipped horses are, as with previous posts in this study, exported from the In-Running Trading tool website in the form of an easy to view spreadsheet. Included in this information is each runners previous BSP and in-play low odds as well as its average tick drop for all races it has run in.

top-tipped-30aug2021Download

I have also included for your convenience my own 15 tick drop calculator simply enter your back odds and stake in the appropriate boxes and the odds for a 15 tickdrop and the required stake to obtain a level profit if the horse wins or loses will automatically be shown. The commission rate is set at 2% by default and this can also be changed by entering your own rate.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

If you want to learn more on trading in play and want free access to all the stats provided by In Running Trading Tool you can get a free 7 day trial of the In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below.

In-Running Trading Tool

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further

Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below

top-tipped-27aug2021Download

Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.

HorseMeetingTimeTipsBSPi-p low15 tick oddsresult
Silk RomanceNewmarket13:10111.751.011.61st
Razzle DazzleNewmarket14:2091.951.011.81st
Percy’s PrideFfos Las15:05101.421.011.271st
AlhezabrFfos Las15:40102.041.081.872nd
AsjadFfos Las16:10131.791.121.642nd
Kentucky RoseHamilton16:3593.921.13.142nd
Thunder LegendHamilton17:10111.671.011.521st
Sweet BelieverHamilton18:10121.831.011.681st
Country PyleGoodwood18:23142.681.132.323rd
MahrajaanHamilton18:40102.441.012.141st

As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed!
I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below

betfair-tick-counterDownload

To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below



top-tipped-28aug2021Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

Backing The Most Tipped Horses (16 Aug)

Yesterday’s Selections were a bit of a mixed Bag odds wise and with 2 drifting and 2 getting shorter I was glad I put my bets on early. The first one away was Bloomington Bride which drifted out to 1.91 from 1.44 but alas was beaten also Boltaway didn’t come first either and held its odds of 2.38 to no avail. The third selection was 3/1 (4.00) Sky Blue Thinking which not only had a rule 4 10p reduction but also started the race at odds of 2.37 and favourite to win – which it did – just but a win is a win and after my 10p was thieved from me I was left with the equivalent odds of 3.70. Cant complain at that!
No four yesterday was Alpha Cru which also won and by 3.5 lengths. Backing it at 1.83 in the morning at 1.83 saw it drift out to 2.4 by post time and an extra 57p thank you very much which didnt quite make up for the 2 that lost but cancelled out the Rule 4 deduction imposed upon Sky Blue Thinking.
Todays 4 most tipped selections are as follows
1. Smooth Spirit 14:40 Lingfield backed at 2.75 at 09:04am
2. Nadein 16:05 Catterick backed at 1.25 at 9:05am
3. Rose Barton 17:25 Windsorbacked at 2.38 at 9:06am
4. Sir Tivo 20:05 Bangor-on-Dee backed at 2.75 at 9:07am

Backing The Most Tipped Horses (15 Aug)

Yesterday, (14 Aug) was a significant improvement on Friday 13th. First into the winners enclosure was Mojo Star which I backed at the rediculously short price of 1.06 (1/16) but because of B.O.G. the S.P. came back to 1.17 (1/6) This yeilded a profit of 17 whole new pennies and broke the 5 time losing streak putting me back on the road to sanity.
Dynamic Force was pipped to the post by a head! This dipped the running bank of the 10% staking plan to below £50 (£47.86) and the £1 level stakes hovering about the £20 profit mark
Third up to the plate was Papacito and won at Doncaster at backed odds of 1.73. This won us a theoretical £3.49 in the 10% staking plan lifting the Bank back into a healthy £51.35 and an actual profit of 73p in the £1.00 level stakes making it just 10p down on the day with a race to run
Fontana Ellissi romped home 6.5 lengths in front of its nearest rival at backed odds of 2.1 (The S.P. was 1.5!!) This price skews the figures as the 10% bank figure is dependant on S.P. With adjusted odds to reflect the true return the running bank now stands at £54.18 (£44.18 profit) This of course doesn’t effect the £1.00 level stakes figure which finished on £31.93 (£21.93 profit after 14 days
Todays most tipped horses are as follows
Bloomington Bride 14:00 Pontefract
Boltaway 14:35 Pontefract
Sky Blue Thinking 15:00 Chelmsford
Alpha Cru 16:55 Pontefract

Backing the Most Tipped horses of the day – A Study!!

Is the old adage “safety in numbers” true to making bets? In this blog I will disclose my findings on different ways that I have approached betting on the most tipped horses of the day. Limited to just 4 bets a day these horses are chosen for me by horseracing.net as their Paddy Power advertising banner shows these horses and is a useful “Cut-out” tool as there could be multiple selections with the most tips and then you need to ask is where do I stop! For anyone reading this and wish to find these selections they can be found below all the “New Account” Ads on any main horseracing.net page

You can bet directly from the site I suppose

I have approached this from several betting angles and with the use of spreadsheets have posted my findings so far this Month (AUG 21)
The first and easiest bets are the £1.00 level stakes and I confess to adopting this staking plan as I work nights and to stay awake for the races is not an option. I can get my bets on with SkyBet after 9am to take advantage of any B.O.G. available. It also can get you a couple of better priced horses if the odds come screaming in. A couple of rule 4 occurrence’s have reduced the payout significantly for that race but when looking at the starting prices of some selections and the early price I got in the morning more than makes up for these reductions.
Any way onto my findings after 13 days
The following staking plans are analysed below

10% of a Starting bank of £10.00 (Current balance is £52.29)
£1.00 Level Stakes (current Balance £20.93)
Double Stake after a Win (current balance -£57.84)
£2.00 stake on any selection at odds over 2.0 (current balance £35.32)
Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price ( current balance – £46.70)

1. 10% stakes
The idea behind this plan is to bolster any winning streaks by adding to the stakes used after each win. This is currently out-performing the other methods hands down as the “strike-rate” is quite high but has the drawback of not being a “fire and forget” system as you need to be aware of each selections result as it happens. To use this system is simple enough – you simply stake 10% of your bank for instance the first bet from a £10.00 bank would be £1.00 If the bet wins any profit is added to the bank and the next bet would be 10% of the new balance e.g. an even money win would stand the bank at £11.00 the next bet would then be £1.10.
After a dismal start on the 1 Aug where all 4 lost my theoretical bank stood at £6.56 but things started to improve with its highest point being £88.55 on the 12 August! it is currently at £52.29 after a losing streak of 5

2. £1.00 Level Stakes
As it says on the Tin this is simply staking £1.00 on each selection regardless of odds or whether the previous selection won or lost. Again a disatrous start of 4 losers gave me a loss of £4.00 but this too started to improve with a current profit of £20.93 with the highest profit point of £25.93 on the 12 August. As you can see a losing streak of 5 has only reduced the profit by £5.00 whereas in the 10% system the profit reduction is £36.21.

3. Double Stake after a win
This one can get scary as a winning streak of 10 (which happened between 5th Aug and the 7th Aug) puts the next stake of £1024.00 onto the 11th runner, In this case a Non Runner and the 12th selection lost plunging a very healthy bank of £959.78 into a -£64.22 and just a quid going onto the next selection. Not a system for the faint hearted but some sensible rules about pulling out after a win steak of 4 and starting with a quid on the 5th selection would have seen a healthier balance and I will figure out the excel formula for this when I have the time. This system can again only be implemented if you are able to see all the selections results as they happen.

4. £2.00 level stakes on selections over 2.0 odds
I am looking at this system purely from the aspect of staking enough money on SkyBet to earn my £5.00 free bet for my Cheltenham campaign in March next year. Just betting £1.00 on each selection left me £8.00 short in the first week. With hindsight however £2.00 level stakes would see a bank of £41.86 (double the £1.00 level stake system) and an easy £5.00 free bet addition to my growing Cheltenham pot.

4. Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price
You have to be cynical in all studies and this system lays all selections to lose and while the first day was particularly successful as they all lost the decline has been steadily progressive. A high strike rate of 63% and with just 45% of runners starting at odds on laying these horses is just not an option.

Below you will find the spreadsheet available to download
It lists all the runners and their S.P.s and BSPs



most-tipped-horsesDownload


Laying Horses for a profit?

I am sure that the majority of people reading this post will know what laying a horse – or any sporting event is, but there are still people who, through no fault of their own, have yet to discover the minefields of the exchanges. Without going into too much blurb, a betting exchange is where you can be a bookie or a punter. Being a bookie involves you betting that a horse, greyhound, footballer, politician or just about anything else will not win. This is called “laying” the horse, greyhound, footballer, politician or just about anything else. So far So Good. This must be easy to win with, after all who has ever heard of a poor bookmaker! While I was compiling the daily NAPs stats for another post it suddenly struck me as to the amount of losing streaks these tipsters have and how we as punters, constantly looking for ways of beating the bookie, but why shouldn’t we be the bookie. I have, up to the time of writing this blog, only analyzed the overall leading tipster in the NAPs table, this being Templegate from the Sun newspaper and at £1.00 level stakes for the month of July, and with today’s NAP yet to run he is at a loss of £5.42. If we had laid his selections at BSP (Betfair Starting Price) we would be in profit to a tune of £27.16!! We do have to take into consideration, however, that the minimum bet on Betfair is £2.00 and in my case, a 2% commission is taken from the winnings. Having only 7 winners in July so far and 1 NAP left to run we are guaranteed a profit unless Hurricane Ivor goes off at 15.0 and wins!!! His biggest-priced winner was Guru at Ascot on the 24th at 5.5 and cost us £9.10. His biggest priced selection was Chookie Dunedin on the 5th July which started at a BSP of 11.37 and would have been a £20.74 loss should it have won.
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The initial Bet-Or-Not verdict on this one is I will be reserving a £20.00 bank on my Betfair Account to live test this in september when I have looked into which Tipster is most likely to not win 😁