Researching bookies boosted bets. Are they really value or just a way of getting you to part with your money
Out of the blue I was given a £1.00 free bet by Virginbet and I have bet the whole thing on Dandenong City vs Dandenong Thunder in Australia being over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62. If the bet comes in then I will have 62p cash.
After Mo Salah scored yesterday My Fives team got me £1.00 to use and after analysing Paddy Powers boosted bet this morning decided on an alterative paying 10.63 instead of 7.5
Tottenham v Manchester United is likely to see a rash of goals given previous form with Tottenham being early goal specialists and Man Utd having a tendency to concede early but rally and come from behind have put BTTS into leg 1
Sheffield Utd are hosting Arsenal and with their very poor home record think that there might well be 2 or more goals in the 1st half so have stuck over 1.5 goals in the 1st half into Leg 2
Angers have not conceded in their last 3 away games and if this trend continues Lyon would have to score 3 for under 2.5 goals for leg 3 to fail
After a resounding 2nd minute goal by Bale I can move onto bet no 3 and have chosen a Bundesliga 2 game tonight between St Pauli and Hamburger SV.
St Pauli are currently sitting at 12th place out of 18 in the league and have an impressive 8 game form record of 19 points as opposed to Hamburger being 4th in the league and a less impressive form of just 13 points from 8 games
St Pauli’s last 4 home games have been 3 wins and 1 defeat and this against league leaders Bochum where there were a total of 4 goals in the 1st half with St Pauli scoring first in the 4th minute and a game of “Ping Pong” ensued. leaving a half time score line of 2-2. Bochum then administered the Coup de Gras in the 63rd minute.
To probe further back, the first home game of the season began well for 1st half goals with 2 being scored in this game followed by 2 more in the match v Nurnberg. Karlsruher made it 3 on the trot with a single scored in the 4th minute. A disappointing end to November saw Osnabruck score the only goal to win in the 85th minute. Christmas Month started well with a 10 minute score by Erzgebirge and the first goal scored by Dusseldorf in the same minute in the next game. This year there has been only 2 home games where there were no first half goals once v Holstein Kiel and the other against Sandhausen.
On to 4th Placed Hamburger and the 1st half goals statistic is at least 1 first half goal has been scored in 86% of Hamburg’s 2. Bundesliga games this season. That home and away. If I look at just the away games the 1st game of the season against Paderborn saw 5 (FIVE) first half goals. We then have to go to the 12th Dec to see no goals in the 1st half, this was against Darmstadt. Since then only the Dusseldorf game has seen no 1st half goals!
5 out of 6 games this year have seen Hamburger score or concede at least 1 goal in the first 20 minutes when playing away.
With adrenaline pumping I have just put £1.42 on there being over 0.5 first half goals in the Tottenham v Burnley game this afternoon. Tottenham’s 11 first half goals count as 65% and 9 of these being scored in the first 30 minutes makes this an attractive proposition, coupled with this, Burnley have managed to keep a clean sheet up to half time only once in their last 5 premiership away games.
Having lost my £1.77 to a fit of greed, the Wonder Wheel paid out again this time with 5 free spins and £1.04 in winnings. So I begin again courtesy of Mr Power.
That’s as far as i got yesterday before my laptop battery gave a bit of a squeak threatening all sorts of violence unless plugged in pronto. Being banned from my office for the afternoon as my wife had zoom meetings.
Now its 5 am and I am back in the seat of power
Before going for my afternoon sleep,(As I have mentioned before I am a full time truck driver for a meat packing company. Every nights a day in my life), I stuck £1.04 on the over 0.5 goals in the 1st half Frankfurt Market at odds of 1.36 – Heres why
Bremen Hosted Frankfurt Last night in the Bundesliga. From the last 4 away games frankfurt have produced 6 first half goals as well as conceding 2. Bremen have conceded 3 first half goals in the first half in 2 of the last 4 home games.
Due to circumstances beyond my control I was unable to post yesterdays Paddy Power £1.00 to £100 instalment but did however research it and stake the full £1.77 on not one but two Europa League games last night as a greedy double. Here’s why.
“For the next bet (£1.77) I am looking at the Europa League. Looking at match odds of 1.5 or below for the favourite I drew up the following shortlist.
Hoffenheim 1.25 (v Molde)
AC Milan 1.43 (v Crvena Zvezda (Red Star))
Leicester 1.50 (v Slavia Praha)
So with 3 matches to choose from I started with Hoffenheim.
Looking at previous Europa League games this season Hoffenheim have played 7 games, 3 of them being goalless at half-time were both red star legs and the away leg of Slovan Liberec. The home games where at least one goal was scored before half-time saw 2 goals v Slovan Liberec at 22′ and 30′. The home leg v Gent also had 2 first half goals at 21′ and 26′ (note: hindsight is a wonderful thing)
Molde only has 2 0-0 score lines at half time these being Dundalks away leg and the home game against (The Mighty) Arsenal.
In all likelyhood there will be a 1st half goal but over over 05 goals can come from either side and Hoffenheim’s excellent 1st half “clean sheet” record would cut that likely probability in half! (Note: it was at this point that I talked myself out of backing this match – fool!!)
The same cannot be said for A.C. Milano who with the exception of the away leg v Lille have scored or conceded in every game. Their opponents tonight Red Star have also scored or conceded in all but 3 games (both Hoffenheim lags and away to Slovan Liberec) in the 1st half. Serie A League stats back A.C. milan’s early goal scoring capability with only 3 games from 23 ending goalless at half-time. With Red Star also having a similar record (3 from 22) this game became a “no-brainer”.
Finally onto Leicester.
Leicester only just made the shortlist with match odds of 1.50 and this one seemed the banker of bankers (W*****rs of bankers more like)
Leicesters journey to the last 32 has seen them, or their opponents score in all but two games in the first half. These facts made me greedy and after talking myself out of backing the Hoffenheim game decided to back the double! and we all know what happened next!!!
After winning 30p in the Man City game last week from my £1.00 the time has come to plunge into staking the lot onto another likely 1st half goal and out of form Brentford v Sheffield Wed is the game tonight. Sheffield seems to be a football barren city this season with both teams looking at relegation this year. With this I am not looking at form neccessarily (although, away, Sheffield have only 11 points from 15 games and at home Brentford have 29 points from the same number of games) but the early scoring and conceding goals is more to the fore. Defensivly Sheffield have conceded less than Brentford (32-34) but Brentford have scored 56 goals from 31 games to Sheffields 21. This is a huge void but again not indicative of early goals. If we look at the total goals scored by Brentford in the first half of all games played they total 23 against 33 scored in the second half but if we look at just the home games the ratio is a bit closer (14-15). To take this a step further the teams where Brentford tended to score 1st half goals against were lower positioned teams in the league
QPR 14′
Preston 8′
Luton 14′
Wycombe 9′
two exceptions are prevalent however these being Huddersfield 58′ and Coventry 46′ These are all first goals scored and are in actual fact scored by Brentford even though they lost to Preston 2-4
Sheffield Weds 1st half stats against teams from the top half of the league are as follows,
Norwich 60′ 😦
Swansea 27′ 🙂
Bournemouth 44′ 🙂
Stoke 83′ 😦
Millwall 10 🙂
Bristol 59′ 😦
Blackburn 41′ 🙂
Defensively Sheffield are more than capable of holding a game but with Brentford’s recent form in mind and Sheffield being at the bottom of the league I would hope to see Brentford attacking from the off.
A couple of facts to support this bet are
There has been a first-half goal scored in each of Brentford’s last 7 games in a row.
At each meeting of these two sides since 2017/18 season, whether home or away, there has been at least one 1st half goal in every match.
Managed to win a quid on Paddys Wonder wheel yesterday
putting it ALL on over 0.5 goals in the first Half at odds of 1.3
how far can I go
A 42 minute Own Goal by Crvena zvezda’s Pankov secured this bet with 3 minutes to spare 🤑 Top Man!!!
I have just done the research on a Paddy Power “Beat the Drop” question which I thought was on the list but turns out I mis-read it ?? Any way the research was Wolves v Leeds Both Teams to Score
Instead of lumping my £1000 pot onto yes I have lumped my £2.62 from the above bet at odds of 1.63. with Paddy Power Click here to go to the bet
Here are the reasons why
Wolves have scored in 3 of their last 4 home games
Leeds have scored in 3 of their last 4 away games
Wolves have only failed to score twice in their last 12 home games (17%)
Leeds have only failed to score once in the 12 away games this season (8%)
Wolves have conceded at least one goal in 75% of their home matches
Leeds have conceded at least one goal in 67% of their away Matches
One blot on this landscape is that Leeds failed to score in the previous meeting of these two teams at Elland Rd.
If you are new to my blog this may seem a bit random so please check out my previous blogs
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
Bet 4 £1 – £100 Using Betfair’s Time of First Goal Market
£1 – £100 using Time of first goal market on betfair “Obituary”
Absolutely devastated that it took 31 minutes for Man City to score. My life is in tatters and in a fit of vengeful rage I backed 1st half Over 0.5 goals in the Crvena Zvezda v AC milan with Paddy Power using my last £1.87 (they wont let me put more than a fiver on anyway) boosting it to 1.4 with my last odds boost – That will show them !!
Betornot 