Is the old adage “safety in numbers” true to making bets? In this blog I will disclose my findings on different ways that I have approached betting on the most tipped horses of the day. Limited to just 4 bets a day these horses are chosen for me by horseracing.net as their Paddy Power advertising banner shows these horses and is a useful “Cut-out” tool as there could be multiple selections with the most tips and then you need to ask is where do I stop! For anyone reading this and wish to find these selections they can be found below all the “New Account” Ads on any main horseracing.net page
I have approached this from several betting angles and with the use of spreadsheets have posted my findings so far this Month (AUG 21)
The first and easiest bets are the £1.00 level stakes and I confess to adopting this staking plan as I work nights and to stay awake for the races is not an option. I can get my bets on with SkyBet after 9am to take advantage of any B.O.G. available. It also can get you a couple of better priced horses if the odds come screaming in. A couple of rule 4 occurrence’s have reduced the payout significantly for that race but when looking at the starting prices of some selections and the early price I got in the morning more than makes up for these reductions.
Any way onto my findings after 13 days
The following staking plans are analysed below
10% of a Starting bank of £10.00 (Current balance is £52.29)
£1.00 Level Stakes (current Balance £20.93)
Double Stake after a Win (current balance -£57.84)
£2.00 stake on any selection at odds over 2.0 (current balance £35.32)
Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price ( current balance – £46.70)
1. 10% stakes
The idea behind this plan is to bolster any winning streaks by adding to the stakes used after each win. This is currently out-performing the other methods hands down as the “strike-rate” is quite high but has the drawback of not being a “fire and forget” system as you need to be aware of each selections result as it happens. To use this system is simple enough – you simply stake 10% of your bank for instance the first bet from a £10.00 bank would be £1.00 If the bet wins any profit is added to the bank and the next bet would be 10% of the new balance e.g. an even money win would stand the bank at £11.00 the next bet would then be £1.10.
After a dismal start on the 1 Aug where all 4 lost my theoretical bank stood at £6.56 but things started to improve with its highest point being £88.55 on the 12 August! it is currently at £52.29 after a losing streak of 5
2. £1.00 Level Stakes
As it says on the Tin this is simply staking £1.00 on each selection regardless of odds or whether the previous selection won or lost. Again a disatrous start of 4 losers gave me a loss of £4.00 but this too started to improve with a current profit of £20.93 with the highest profit point of £25.93 on the 12 August. As you can see a losing streak of 5 has only reduced the profit by £5.00 whereas in the 10% system the profit reduction is £36.21.
3. Double Stake after a win
This one can get scary as a winning streak of 10 (which happened between 5th Aug and the 7th Aug) puts the next stake of £1024.00 onto the 11th runner, In this case a Non Runner and the 12th selection lost plunging a very healthy bank of £959.78 into a -£64.22 and just a quid going onto the next selection. Not a system for the faint hearted but some sensible rules about pulling out after a win steak of 4 and starting with a quid on the 5th selection would have seen a healthier balance and I will figure out the excel formula for this when I have the time. This system can again only be implemented if you are able to see all the selections results as they happen.
4. £2.00 level stakes on selections over 2.0 odds
I am looking at this system purely from the aspect of staking enough money on SkyBet to earn my £5.00 free bet for my Cheltenham campaign in March next year. Just betting £1.00 on each selection left me £8.00 short in the first week. With hindsight however £2.00 level stakes would see a bank of £41.86 (double the £1.00 level stake system) and an easy £5.00 free bet addition to my growing Cheltenham pot.
4. Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price
You have to be cynical in all studies and this system lays all selections to lose and while the first day was particularly successful as they all lost the decline has been steadily progressive. A high strike rate of 63% and with just 45% of runners starting at odds on laying these horses is just not an option.
Below you will find the spreadsheet available to download
It lists all the runners and their S.P.s and BSPs
Betornot 