A couple of ups and downs this week and a lucky 2nd place saw a slight profit this week in my quest for a £5.00 free bet Bet 1 was struck on Monday with an over 2.5 goals punt on a game that should have yielded about 4 which left me £5.00 down. Bet 1 Blog here Bet 2 on Tuesday was an exact opposite of Under 2.5 goals which had me in palpitations as France scored an own goal but ended well with £5.00 up and even over all. Bet 2 Blog Here Bet 3 took a trip to the races and tried to take advantage of the skybet offer of cashback if 2nd or 3rd Goodnight Charlie was pipped at the post into 2nd which after cash back still left me Even over the week. Bet 3 Blog Here Bet 4 This week went back to football and the Castellon v Espanyol game and an over 2.5 goals bet which won giving £6.88 Profit and the same over the week Bet 4 Blog Here Bet 5 each week will be the Soccer Saturday Price Boost which of course lost leaving me in profit over the week of £1.88 and a £5.00 Free Bet Bet 5 Blog Here
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With only £5.00 left to wager to get my next free bet, SkyBet’s Soccer Saturday Price Boost (As always on a Saturday) jumped to the fore on my computer sceen this morning offering a boosted treble of the top 3 sides in league one to win from 4/1 to 6/1. Any treble of 4/1 or less is worth looking at and as I had just analyzed Ladbrokes Saturday Treble (Read it here) and it contained two of the selections in this treble two-thirds of the research was already done. My apologies to anyone who has already read the Ladbrokes dissection as I am simply copying what I blogged earlier for the Sunderland and Peterborough games.
Sunderland are currently 3rd in the league with 2 games in hand to league leaders Hull and one game in hand to second place Peterborough. Form from the last 8 games suggest that Sunderland are on fire gaining a total of 20 points from these games. Bristol Rovers are hosting this match and Sunderlands form from the last 4 aways put 10 points on the board. Bristol need a win today just to keep from swirling into the relegation zone. This does not look likely as they have lost over half (56%) of their home games, 2 of them to the top two sides in the league by a 2 goal margin in both games. In the 5 times that Sunderland and Bristol have played Sunderland has won 3 of those matches. Their last game ended 1-1 last September.
League leaders Hull are at home to Gillingham who are looking for a playoff spot. Hull needs to win today to fend off both Peterborough and Sunderland’s envious eyes on that automatic promotion spot. Gillingham’s form against the top 5 teams has only ended in victory once and that was against Lincoln who after last night’s performance against Oxford is no surprise. (Read last night’s blog). Hull City’s goal-scoring ability is second to none this season with 62 balls hitting the back of the net from the 37 games played, Gillingham has allowed 49 goals past them in the same number of games. Defensively, at home, Hull has conceded just 9 goals this season whilst scoring 21.
With a game in hand over Hull at the top 3 points separate them so this is an ideal opportunity for Peterborough. Their home form record has seen them accrue 41 points from 17 games Having only lost 2 home games all season once against Hull and once against Blackpool. Peterborough have 58 goals from 36 games while only conceding 37. Accrington on the other hand have scored in 82% of their away games and will prove challenging opponents for Peterborough but the likelihood is, I think, that Peterborough will end the game as victors.
I am back to football today and after analysing Ladbrokes friday night boosted treble unearthed a likely candidate for my 4th bet this week. Espanyol are away to Castellon tonight in a game that is crucial to both teams. A win for Espanyol would put them level on points with top team Mallorca who they beat when away and have yet to play them at home and at the other end of the league Castellon need points desperately to get themselves of the relegation precipice. Espanyol are expected to win and probably will but Castellon have scored at home against the 3 top teams they played. A 1-2 scoreline is entirely possible but I am playing safeish and backing over 2.5 goals at 2.38.
A change in tack 😜 for this bet means we head off to Chepstow for the 14:07 Easter Titles at Oliversbookshop.co.uk Handicap Chase. I received a tip last night for Goodnight Charlie from one of the lads in Smithfield Market so when I got home this morning had a look at its recent form and its last 3 outings were at Warwick over progressivly longer distances with the last one over 3m 5f where it placed on good to soft ground. Todays race is over a still slightly longer 3m 6f 130yds with a good going and good to soft in places. This horse has only run on good or good to soft ground 16 times Winning 3 times and placing 5 times. This race is the furthest she has raced and after starting at 12/1 in her last race a forcast S.P. today of 4/1 you could be excused for thinking at least a place today. I also have the added bonus that should she not win but place 2nd or 3rd then @SkyBet will give me my stake back.
World Cup Qualifiers begin tonight and France host Ukraine and with no stats so far this is a difficult game to decipher. Yet again the 2.5 goals market has a certain appeal with Under 2.5 goals taking my eye. If we take a look at the qualifiers for the 2018 tournament in 2017 Ukraine only had one game in which there were 3 goals or more and that was against Finland. The eventual runners up Croatia could only put 2 in against them. Current Champions, France, however did fair better in their score lines with 3 games from 5 ending with more than 2 goals scored. An other factor in this is that this tournament is unlike any other due to the fact that the Chinese Bat Flu has made it necessary to play the opening qualifiers in a week meaning that each team are playing 4 matches within a week. A tall order for any team. This may mean that whilst the dominant team may well take an early lead will the managers rest their goalscorers for future matches? This will undoubtedly be revealed later on tonight but I am putting my money where my mouth is and backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.0
With only league 1 and league 2 games tonight A league 2 mid table clash between Carlisle and Leyton Orient provides a suitable game to start the week for my next free bet qualifying bet. As I don’t want to lose all my money on one bet I will be staking 5 x £5.00 bets each week to try and stay even if not a little bit in profit. (Remember a total of £25.00 has to be staked at 2.0 (Evens) or better to get your weekly free bet). I have staked £5.00 on the over 2.5 goals market at 2.0 for the following reasons. Carlisle Utd at home have a 72% record of scoring in the first half with 9 out of 23 goals coming in the first 15 minutes and another 10 in the last 15 minutes of the half while in the final third of the second half they have conceded 9 out of the 14 goals against them in the second half. With these stat in mind it would suggest that they are quick to attack in the first half hopefully putting their opponents on to the back foot but let themselves down at the back end of the game indicating perhaps a 2-1 win for the home team. Other factors that give the bet a little weight is that Carlisle have conceded at least one goal in the last 11 games (Both home and Away) but they have scored in all of their home games this season and averaging 2. Leyton Orient have conceded have scored in 71% of their away games this season. Carlisle, when at home to other mid table sides have a 2-1 win v Salford (9th), 3-1 v Bradford (12th) and 4-0 v Stevenage (15th). Leyton’s away games when playing teams above them in the league have all ended with at least 3 goals being scored except for 4 Tranmere, Bolton, Newport and Bradford.
Leicester are hosting Man Utd Today (21 March 2021) and Skybet have offered a free £5.00 bet when any in-play £5.00 cash bet in the first half is struck at odds of 1.5 (1/2) or above. This free bet is advertised as being used in the second half but like all free bets from SktBet it has no expiry. Leicester have scored or conceded over 2.5 goals in 2 of the 3 F.A. Cup games played so far. Man Utd have scored (obviously) in all of their Matches. Both sides have Over 2.5 goals averages of 57% or more which makes this a possible bet. I will be placing the bet as close to kickoff as possible as an Early goal (which both of these sides are capable of) will reduce the odds to below 1.5 and therefore not make the bet qualification terms. Assuming the bet wins at 1.83 (odds at time of writing) the profit will be £4.19. Do not cash out as this will also make the qualification bet void!!
This years Cheltenham Festival saw me enter the fray with over £300 in free bets from SkyBet, whos’ free bets never expire. I managed to convert that to over £199.64 with the help of the money back offers. It is now time to start saving for next year and my first £5.00 free bet is already in the bag due to this weeks bets already settled. and will be credited this Monday. These series of Blog posts will track my bets each week, hopefully ending up in profit as well as having at least £260 in free bets by next March in time for next years Festival. As well as the regular weekly £5.00 free bet for wagering £25.00 there are plenty more opportunities that they offer so follow me on twitter as well as this blog to join in if you want.
Betornot 