Todays SSPB from SkyBet has Leicester, Everton, and Sheffield United all to win at a boosted price of 5/1 from 3/1 Leicester City are hosting Burnley and are currently mid table, looking for a 3 pointer to boost them up the table The last 2 home games have seen them hold Manchester City to just a 1 goal defeat and a 1-0 win against Wolves. Burnley have yet to win an away game and after losing to both Merseyside sides. Leicester have won 4 out of their last 6 meetings at home against Burnley with this fixture last season ending 4-2. Verdict: Leicester win Everton are playing Norwich City at Home and have a 100% record here this season. Winning both games this season 3-1 against Southampton and Burnley they are currently 6th in the league on 10 pts with the top three sides on 13 each. Norwich City have yet to score away this season and have lost both of their away games 1-0 and 5-0 against Arsenal and Man City resepectfully. In fact they have yet to win. Verdict: Everton Win The final game in this boosted treble is a bit more tricky and takes us to the championship where Sheffield Utd host Derby County. Having won just 1 game at home this season they have a bit of a mixed bag of results when playing on home soil. With the Yorkshire side being unbeaten this season in the last 4 games (Home and Away) and the fact that they have scored a total of 9 goals at home so far this season to Derby’s 2 away goals from 4 games it would seem a home win is on the cards. Verdict: Tentertive Sheffield Utd win. I am going to back this boost with the free £5.00 bet which SKYBET is giving away for any cash bet on the Chelsea game this lunchtime against Manchester City. N.B. you must opt-in to the offer to receive the free bet but a bet of as little as 5p will secure your free bet. It would be unfair to not mention that there is also a Sheffield “Draw” option to this boost and is priced at 11/1 I will also be using one of my other free bets on this option as well
I’ve made my Soccer Saturday Super 6 predictions for the week. Leicester 2-1 Burnley, Leeds 2-1 West Ham, Everton 2-1 Norwich, Watford 2-1 Newcastle, Bristol City 2-1 Fulham, Sheff Utd 1-2 Derby. Enter yours now for the chance to win thousands for FREE! http://sky.me/Super6
I’ve made my Soccer Saturday Super 6 predictions for the week. Man City 2-1 Southampton, Liverpool 2-1 Crystal Palace, Burnley 1-2 Arsenal, Norwich 2-1 Watford, Preston North End 2-1 West Brom, Cardiff 1-2 AFC Bournemouth. Enter yours now for the chance to win thousands for FREE! http://sky.me/Super6
I’ve made my Soccer Saturday Super 6 predictions for the week. Leicester 1-2 Man City, Man Utd 2-1 Newcastle, Arsenal 2-1 Norwich, Southampton 1-2 West Ham, Watford 2-1 Wolverhampton, Brentford 2-1 Brighton. Enter yours now for the chance to win thousands for FREE! http://sky.me/Super6
Is the old adage “safety in numbers” true to making bets? In this blog I will disclose my findings on different ways that I have approached betting on the most tipped horses of the day. Limited to just 4 bets a day these horses are chosen for me by horseracing.net as their Paddy Power advertising banner shows these horses and is a useful “Cut-out” tool as there could be multiple selections with the most tips and then you need to ask is where do I stop! For anyone reading this and wish to find these selections they can be found below all the “New Account” Ads on any main horseracing.net page
You can bet directly from the site I suppose
I have approached this from several betting angles and with the use of spreadsheets have posted my findings so far this Month (AUG 21) The first and easiest bets are the £1.00 level stakes and I confess to adopting this staking plan as I work nights and to stay awake for the races is not an option. I can get my bets on with SkyBet after 9am to take advantage of any B.O.G. available. It also can get you a couple of better priced horses if the odds come screaming in. A couple of rule 4 occurrence’s have reduced the payout significantly for that race but when looking at the starting prices of some selections and the early price I got in the morning more than makes up for these reductions. Any way onto my findings after 13 days The following staking plans are analysed below
10% of a Starting bank of £10.00 (Current balance is £52.29) £1.00 Level Stakes (current Balance £20.93) Double Stake after a Win (current balance -£57.84) £2.00 stake on any selection at odds over 2.0 (current balance £35.32) Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price ( current balance – £46.70)
1. 10% stakes The idea behind this plan is to bolster any winning streaks by adding to the stakes used after each win. This is currently out-performing the other methods hands down as the “strike-rate” is quite high but has the drawback of not being a “fire and forget” system as you need to be aware of each selections result as it happens. To use this system is simple enough – you simply stake 10% of your bank for instance the first bet from a £10.00 bank would be £1.00 If the bet wins any profit is added to the bank and the next bet would be 10% of the new balance e.g. an even money win would stand the bank at £11.00 the next bet would then be £1.10. After a dismal start on the 1 Aug where all 4 lost my theoretical bank stood at £6.56 but things started to improve with its highest point being £88.55 on the 12 August! it is currently at £52.29 after a losing streak of 5
2. £1.00 Level Stakes As it says on the Tin this is simply staking £1.00 on each selection regardless of odds or whether the previous selection won or lost. Again a disatrous start of 4 losers gave me a loss of £4.00 but this too started to improve with a current profit of £20.93 with the highest profit point of £25.93 on the 12 August. As you can see a losing streak of 5 has only reduced the profit by £5.00 whereas in the 10% system the profit reduction is £36.21.
3. Double Stake after a win This one can get scary as a winning streak of 10 (which happened between 5th Aug and the 7th Aug) puts the next stake of £1024.00 onto the 11th runner, In this case a Non Runner and the 12th selection lost plunging a very healthy bank of £959.78 into a -£64.22 and just a quid going onto the next selection. Not a system for the faint hearted but some sensible rules about pulling out after a win steak of 4 and starting with a quid on the 5th selection would have seen a healthier balance and I will figure out the excel formula for this when I have the time. This system can again only be implemented if you are able to see all the selections results as they happen.
4. £2.00 level stakes on selections over 2.0 odds I am looking at this system purely from the aspect of staking enough money on SkyBet to earn my £5.00 free bet for my Cheltenham campaign in March next year. Just betting £1.00 on each selection left me £8.00 short in the first week. With hindsight however £2.00 level stakes would see a bank of £41.86 (double the £1.00 level stake system) and an easy £5.00 free bet addition to my growing Cheltenham pot.
4. Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price You have to be cynical in all studies and this system lays all selections to lose and while the first day was particularly successful as they all lost the decline has been steadily progressive. A high strike rate of 63% and with just 45% of runners starting at odds on laying these horses is just not an option.
Below you will find the spreadsheet available to download It lists all the runners and their S.P.s and BSPs
Punchestown day 2 and SkyBet are again paying 7 places and have boosted “The Great White” to 2.1 to place It is currently 2nd Fav at 7.5 to win Yesterdays similar bet won so why not try it again. To quote Sporting Life ” THE GREAT WHITE was beaten a long way behind Low Lie The Fields here in January but it was a different matter at Limerick last week where he was impressive. He’s up 11lb but still on a lowly mark and a quick double beckons.”
For those of you who are just joining this series of bets I am placing 5 bets per week of £5.00 with SkyBet at odds of 2.0(evens) or better to earn a £5.00 free bet each week to use in next years Cheltenham festival. I already have £75.00 and this is just the start of week 7. Bet No 1 this week is an In-Play bet of £5.00 at odds of 2.2 in the Sydney v Melbourne Victory game this morning. Sydney scored first in 6 minutes but there was no other score upto half time. Melbourne have had 2 shots on target so far and time is running out. With luck they will net the ball in the second half. With the exception of the Melbourne City game they have scored in the other 3 of the last 4 away games as they have scored their most away goals in the second half in the last 15 minutes of the game.
SkyBets Soccer Saturday Price Boost is bet 4 this week with Watford Barnsley and Norwich all to win Watford host Millwall today and have a 100% home “Win to Nil” record from the last 4 games and have accrued 53 pts from their 21 Home games. In contrast Millwall have earned themselves just 31 pts from the same number of away games. When playing Millwall at home Watford have won 4 out of the last 5 games only drawing 0-0 in November 2012. Barnsley are at home to struggling Rotherham and will be pushing to get a play-off place and a win today will see them level on points with Bournemouth. Having won 5 of their last 8 games this shouldnt be too much trouble for this in-form side. Rotherham’s abysmal form has seen them lose 5 times from their last 8 games pretty much sealing their relegation. Barnsley have won all 3 of these two sides previous meetings in the championship league winning 4-0 in the only home fixture and conceding a total of just 1 goal in all three games. The only away side in this treble is League winners Norwich City who are being hosted by 8th place Q.P.R. If Norwich win today it would be their 8th consecutive away match without defeat, and having scored in 81% of their 21 away games they have only lost 4 games all season 3 of them being to teams in the top 5 of the league.
Betornot 