Researching bookies boosted bets. Are they really value or just a way of getting you to part with your money
This boost has been available for some time but I have been waiting for the team sheet to come out.
Salah has an average of 3.6 shots per game and an average of 1.5 shots on target per game achieving at least 1 shot on target in 12 of his last 13 starts.
It doesn’t seem like it was 6 weeks since Cheltenham, they say time goes faster the older you get.
Tonight Leeds Host Liverpool and yes you guessed it I will be Putting a BTTS “Yes” bet on in-play. Two reasons, at the moment BTTS odds are just 1.5 so I will be watching the game and the odds until they reach 2.0 the second reason is that SkyBet is using the game to offer their “Game of Two Halves” promotion which means that if you bet £5.00 in play at odds of 1.5 or better then you get a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half, but as with all SkyBet free bets they never expire 😁.
Onto tonights bet though, Leeds Utd have scored in only two of their last home games But their average goals per game is 1.4, also only 7 of their 21 home goals have been scored in the first half making it a distinct possibility that the odds could indeed get to 2.0 as Liverpool’s first half scoring rate when they are away is even worse than Leeds’ at 28% or only 8 out of 29 away goals scored in the first half, their scoring rate per game when away however is 1.92. I will be hoping that both teams score their first goals between minutes 46 and 61. If there is an early goal then I will be taking the odds if they are 1.5 or better to secure the free bet. If the odds settle after the first goal below 1.5 then contingency plan A will kick in and a Over 3.5 bet should be at 2.0 or better and usually with early goals come more goals. The last time these two played each other the score was 4-3 and Salah had a hat-trick with two penalties.
The Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week starts at 12:30 due to the Royal Funeral taking place at Windsor this afternoon. This weeks bet is West Ham, Swansea, and Watford all to win.
Starting with the Premiership clash between Newcastle and West Ham United, West Ham are on a bit of a crusade to play in the Champions League next season and another win today will see them take 3rd place in the league above Leicester City. West Ham have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 games. Newcastle has trouble winning at home actually achieving this just 4 times this season so far. Significant defeats against other top-of-the-table sides both home and away set a trend that West Ham will want to carry on especially as earlier in the season West Ham did lose to Newcastle 0-2. The odds for West Ham to win today are 2.05 with SkyBet.
The second game on the list is the Swansea City v Wycombe Wanderers and Wycombe are in trouble! Swansea needs to win today to keep Brentford from leap-frogging them into 3rd spot from the top. Swansea’s recent form at home is not good and need a good win to bolster their morale. This will be an ideal psychological game to achieve that just as long as they don’t go into this match thinking that bottom side Wycombe have no teeth. Wycombe’s form away is dismal having won just 3 games all season.
Watford are away to Luton this lunchtime and currently lie 2nd in the Championship with just a 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough, Watford have won 7 of their last 8 games – 5 of them “to nil” Luton have only won 2 of their last 4 home games losing to both Swansea and Barnsley. In the 41 games played by Watford this season they have scored 59 goals. If you couple this with the fact that Luton have conceded a total of 46 goals in their 40 matches it seem that Watford should retain their second place lead of 7 points in the league.
This seems a fair bet and would see SkyBet paying out twice in two weeks! Never a bad thing.
Tonight sees 16th place Brighton hosting 8th place Everton. Brighton are far from safe with 3 of the top 5 league teams still to play and they will be looking to gain as many points as possible. They are not without the ability to score at home doing so against Man Utd, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. They have in fact scored at home in all but 4 games this season they have also failed to score in the same number of away games. Everton are a strong away side only losing or drawing in 5 of their 14 away games and failing to score just twice. The favourite correct score odds with SkyBet are 6.0 (5/1) for a 1-1 draw which is a good indication of what the bookies think of both teams scoring. Like last week this will have to be an in-play bet when the Odds reach the required 2.0 qualifying level. The pre match odds are presently 1.73 so a few minutes of play will be needed for it to reach 2.0. For this to happen there needs to be no goals scored in at least the first 10-15 minutes. Brightons’ earliest home goal in the premiership this season was 10 minutes against Leicester where they held the lead until the 62nd minute when leicester equalised. Their earliest conceded goal without scoring first came in the 23rd minute against Chelsea from a penalty. Everton have scored in the 1st and 3rd minutes the latter in that memorable derby where they won at Anfield for the first time in years (I forget how many 🤣) but their average is 45 minutes. This should give me plenty of time to wait for the odds and the beauty of a bet like this is that if there is an early goal which holds the odds too low I can just walk away and wait for the next oppertunity
SkyBet have a very tempting offer for the final day ovf the Masters involving Jordan Spieth and current leader Matsuyama.
Only one hole matters and it is the first, a par 4, 445 yard test of nerve.
As I have mentioned in a previous blog I know nothing about golf apart from it is incredibly difficult to get the ball down such a small hole hundreds of yards from your starting point!
The cumulative stats for this hole started with , in round 1 only 1 player birdieing this but 65 players parred it 19 bogeyed and 2 Double Bogeyed. Round 2 saw 6 Birdies 55 Pars 24 Bogeys and another 2 double bogeys. After the cut 4 Birdies and 40 pars were acheived while there were only 9 Bogeys and 1 Double bogey
To me these stats suggest that as the players got used to the course they became more relaxed and at ease. The two players involved in this bet have scored a par on each time they have played
Here’s hoping they can keep their nerve at least for this hole for this fun little bet.
SkyBet are offering the “Game of 2 halves” promotion tonight in the Champions League fixture between Man City and Dortmund tonight. This means that if you place a £5.00 in-play bet in the first half you will be credited with a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half. This free bet however has the same conditions as all their other free bets so can be saved.
This is the first leg of the quarter finals and as such Dortmund being the away side will be all out to score as many away goals as possible tonight to gain that all important away goal advantage. They have scored at least one goal in every one of their Champions League games so far averaging 2.13 per match
The current odds at Skybet for BTTS (Yes) is 2.0 but I need to place this in-play and may have to wait if skybet reduce the odds just before kick off
A concerning stat that may put you off following my lead on this is
Manchester City have Won to Nil in this competition in 75% of their games and in all but one of their home games.
This however is countered by Dortmund having never lost to nil in this competition.
A score draw tonight would give goals advantage in the second leg next week to Dortmund.
Stay close to find out how I do
The week started badly with a trip to Wolverhampton and Lovely Breeze in the 18:30 which was boosted to 2.88. Managing only 6th place this left me £5.00 down. Not to be deterred I again went racing on Tuesday and split my fiver into an E/W bet on Finisk River in the 14:35 at Newcastle where a 4th place was close but no cigar forthcoming! £10.00 Down.
Staying in the north of England for Wednesdays bet I played what I thought was a in-play blinder backing over 2.5 goals 7 minutes into the Carlisle v Crawley match. With the game 2-0 at half time I began to count my winnings only for all hopes to be dashed as yellow cards came out instead of goals going in!! £15.00 down – this is getting depressing!!!
Bet 4 had to be a wembley affair and after careful planning nearly missed my opportunity as I only just got my Over 2.5 Goals bet on 1 minute before Kane scored from the spot. With 2 more goals being scored earned me a £6.88 profit bringing my total loss upto £8.12.
My last bet of the week plunged me more into despair as Absolutely No Goals were scored in the first half of the Leicester v Man City game making my Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half bet a loser.
Total Loss for the week is £13.12 with my Total loss for weeks 2-3 £11.24
On the Brightside though I will have £30 in free bets for Next years Cheltenham when this weeks bet is credited on Monday.
A couple of ups and downs this week and a lucky 2nd place saw a slight profit this week in my quest for a £5.00 free bet
Bet 1 was struck on Monday with an over 2.5 goals punt on a game that should have yielded about 4 which left me £5.00 down.
Bet 1 Blog here
Bet 2 on Tuesday was an exact opposite of Under 2.5 goals which had me in palpitations as France scored an own goal but ended well with £5.00 up and even over all.
Bet 2 Blog Here
Bet 3 took a trip to the races and tried to take advantage of the skybet offer of cashback if 2nd or 3rd Goodnight Charlie was pipped at the post into 2nd which after cash back still left me Even over the week.
Bet 3 Blog Here
Bet 4 This week went back to football and the Castellon v Espanyol game and an over 2.5 goals bet which won giving £6.88 Profit and the same over the week
Bet 4 Blog Here
Bet 5 each week will be the Soccer Saturday Price Boost which of course lost leaving me in profit over the week of £1.88 and a £5.00 Free Bet
Bet 5 Blog Here
Follow me on twitter or facebook of just follow my blog each day to find out my fortunes this year.
A change in tack 😜 for this bet means we head off to Chepstow for the 14:07 Easter Titles at Oliversbookshop.co.uk Handicap Chase. I received a tip last night for Goodnight Charlie from one of the lads in Smithfield Market so when I got home this morning had a look at its recent form and its last 3 outings were at Warwick over progressivly longer distances with the last one over 3m 5f where it placed on good to soft ground. Todays race is over a still slightly longer 3m 6f 130yds with a good going and good to soft in places. This horse has only run on good or good to soft ground 16 times Winning 3 times and placing 5 times. This race is the furthest she has raced and after starting at 12/1 in her last race a forcast S.P. today of 4/1 you could be excused for thinking at least a place today. I also have the added bonus that should she not win but place 2nd or 3rd then @SkyBet will give me my stake back.
World Cup Qualifiers begin tonight and France host Ukraine and with no stats so far this is a difficult game to decipher. Yet again the 2.5 goals market has a certain appeal with Under 2.5 goals taking my eye. If we take a look at the qualifiers for the 2018 tournament in 2017 Ukraine only had one game in which there were 3 goals or more and that was against Finland. The eventual runners up Croatia could only put 2 in against them. Current Champions, France, however did fair better in their score lines with 3 games from 5 ending with more than 2 goals scored. An other factor in this is that this tournament is unlike any other due to the fact that the Chinese Bat Flu has made it necessary to play the opening qualifiers in a week meaning that each team are playing 4 matches within a week. A tall order for any team. This may mean that whilst the dominant team may well take an early lead will the managers rest their goalscorers for future matches? This will undoubtedly be revealed later on tonight but I am putting my money where my mouth is and backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.0
Betornot 