The Road to Cheltenham Week 6 Bet 4

SkyBets Soccer Saturday Price Boost is bet 4 this week with Watford Barnsley and Norwich all to win
Watford host Millwall today and have a 100% home “Win to Nil” record from the last 4 games and have accrued 53 pts from their 21 Home games. In contrast Millwall have earned themselves just 31 pts from the same number of away games. When playing Millwall at home Watford have won 4 out of the last 5 games only drawing 0-0 in November 2012.
Barnsley are at home to struggling Rotherham and will be pushing to get a play-off place and a win today will see them level on points with Bournemouth. Having won 5 of their last 8 games this shouldnt be too much trouble for this in-form side. Rotherham’s abysmal form has seen them lose 5 times from their last 8 games pretty much sealing their relegation. Barnsley have won all 3 of these two sides previous meetings in the championship league winning 4-0 in the only home fixture and conceding a total of just 1 goal in all three games.
The only away side in this treble is League winners Norwich City who are being hosted by 8th place Q.P.R. If Norwich win today it would be their 8th consecutive away match without defeat, and having scored in 81% of their 21 away games they have only lost 4 games all season 3 of them being to teams in the top 5 of the league.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 6 Bet 3

This boost has been available for some time but I have been waiting for the team sheet to come out.
Salah has an average of 3.6 shots per game and an average of 1.5 shots on target per game achieving at least 1 shot on target in 12 of his last 13 starts.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 bet 5

The Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week starts at 12:30 due to the Royal Funeral taking place at Windsor this afternoon. This weeks bet is West Ham, Swansea, and Watford all to win.
Starting with the Premiership clash between Newcastle and West Ham United, West Ham are on a bit of a crusade to play in the Champions League next season and another win today will see them take 3rd place in the league above Leicester City. West Ham have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 games. Newcastle has trouble winning at home actually achieving this just 4 times this season so far. Significant defeats against other top-of-the-table sides both home and away set a trend that West Ham will want to carry on especially as earlier in the season West Ham did lose to Newcastle 0-2. The odds for West Ham to win today are 2.05 with SkyBet.
The second game on the list is the Swansea City v Wycombe Wanderers and Wycombe are in trouble! Swansea needs to win today to keep Brentford from leap-frogging them into 3rd spot from the top. Swansea’s recent form at home is not good and need a good win to bolster their morale. This will be an ideal psychological game to achieve that just as long as they don’t go into this match thinking that bottom side Wycombe have no teeth. Wycombe’s form away is dismal having won just 3 games all season.
Watford are away to Luton this lunchtime and currently lie 2nd in the Championship with just a 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough, Watford have won 7 of their last 8 games – 5 of them “to nil” Luton have only won 2 of their last 4 home games losing to both Swansea and Barnsley. In the 41 games played by Watford this season they have scored 59 goals. If you couple this with the fact that Luton have conceded a total of 46 goals in their 40 matches it seem that Watford should retain their second place lead of 7 points in the league.
This seems a fair bet and would see SkyBet paying out twice in two weeks! Never a bad thing.

 

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 bet 4

The fourth bet this week was a spur of the moment boosted bet “Harry Kane to have 1+ Shot on target Boosted from 1/6 to even money. – A qualifying bet if ever there was one.
There was another bet on offer with Kane to have a shot on target in both halves which was 4.0 (3/1) which as it turns out would have come in as Kane scored both goals one in each half. But it does just go to show that these shots on target bets are dangerous . There were many offerings last night involving prominent Tottenham players to have shots on target – in the end there were only 3 shots on target from Tottenham and Kane scored from two of them
Still all’s well that ends well and this one won where many have lost. Happy days for me as it has reduced my loss a bit this week

An Off-piste Golf bet on the final day of the Masters

SkyBet have a very tempting offer for the final day ovf the Masters involving Jordan Spieth and current leader Matsuyama.
Only one hole matters and it is the first, a par 4, 445 yard test of nerve.
As I have mentioned in a previous blog I know nothing about golf apart from it is incredibly difficult to get the ball down such a small hole hundreds of yards from your starting point!
The cumulative stats for this hole started with , in round 1 only 1 player birdieing this but 65 players parred it 19 bogeyed and 2 Double Bogeyed. Round 2 saw 6 Birdies 55 Pars 24 Bogeys and another 2 double bogeys. After the cut 4 Birdies and 40 pars were acheived while there were only 9 Bogeys and 1 Double bogey
To me these stats suggest that as the players got used to the course they became more relaxed and at ease. The two players involved in this bet have scored a par on each time they have played
Here’s hoping they can keep their nerve at least for this hole for this fun little bet.

Paddy Powers’ Sunday Power Price Boost, Man Utd, Arsenal, and Lyon all to win

This treble has been boosted from 5.0 to 7.5! A quick look over the odds available for the individual games sees that Man Utd are 2.5 for the win! The other 2 are odds on.
As Man Utd are first on the list I will have a look at them first. If Manchester Utd win they will cut Manchester City’s lead in the premiership down to 11 pts after they lost to Leeds Utd yesterday and united will still have a game in hand. This game is however sharpened at the other end as well as Tottenham at home will be looking to go level on points with Liverpool to try and get a toe in the door of the Champions League places. Manchester Utd’s recent away form is a cause for concern as they have drawn in 3 of their last 4 away games only showing some promise after their 2-0 away win at the Etihad stadium. Tottenham, on the other hand, have won their last 3 home games convincingly albeit against teams lower in the league, only allowing a single goal against Chelsea to spoil a full house! While early goal specialists Tottenham may take the lead Manchester Utd have come from behind too many times to be ignored. This game is a definite “Both Teams To Score” Candidate but recent form casts doubt on an away win as the odds reflect.
The second game in this treble is the away fixture for Arsenal at Sheffield Utd. While the odds of 1.6 lean heavily in favour of Arsenal they have recently drawn against Burnley in what should have been 3 points for the North London side. But we are talking about Sheffield here and their recent form is just dreadful. In 15 games Sheffield Utd have Lost to Nil 6 times and conceding in 87% of their home games! Arsenal have failed to score in just 27% of their away games actually scoring 22 times in 15 away matches. There have been over 1.5 goals scored in 5 of Arsenals’ last 6 away games before halftime. A fact worth noting.
In the final game in this boosted treble Lyon are hosting mid-table Angers and a win would lift them 3rd place if Monaco lose to Dijon (not a likely prospect) Both Lyon and Monaco are in contention for the third round Champions League qualifying round and Lyon have still to play Monaco away and Lille at home so 3 points today will be vital. Angers however are not without strengths and away victories against Lille and Lens show that they still have the ability and have not conceded any goals in their last 3 away games.
I wish you luck in whatever you decide

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 4 Bet 5

The final bet this week, as far as the weekly free bet club is concerned is the 14:25 at Aintree. As I only hade £4.07 in my account after chasing a £1.00 free bet on the slots (I lost a quid to get a quid) I needed to bring my balance up to £5.00. Adelaide are playing Western Sydney Wanderers and had a player sent off before half time
WSW have scored in each of their previous 8 games so went all in on BTTS at 1.30

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I have just caught Alex Hammonds tweet on Dreal Deal and while the form figures for both Dreal Deal and My Drogo are the same, Alex has just put doubt into my mind and I have gone for My Drogo in the hope that the Skelton Family can give my betting pot a bit of a boost.
This bet gives me the required total for my next free bet
Watch out for this weeks Summary on Monday – after Justin Thomas wins the Masters 🤗🤗🤗

 

Paddy Power Saturday’s Turbo Power Price,

Patrick Bamford to have 1 or more shots on target has been boosted from 1.5 to 2.0! Are Paddy Power giving money away or does it go deeper? lets take a look.
Patrick Bamfords is Leeds Utd’s first choice striker this season having started in 30 games. He has scored 14 times in his Premier League starts making him Leeds Utds’ top goalscorer. He averages 3.3 shots per game getting an average of 1.4 on target.
In his last 3 starts he has been subbed off . After 35 Mins v Chelsea, After 77 mins v Fulham and after 65 mins v Sheffield Utd.
His Shots on target stats for the last 5 games are as Follows
v Sheffield Utd – 1
v Fulham – 1
v Chelsea – 0
v West Ham – 0
v Aston Villa – 0

With only 2 shots on Target in the last 5 games this could well be a “Bettornot” bet


The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 4 Bet 4

SkyBet Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week features the Liverpool, Bournemouth and Norwich games all starting at 3pm
Liverpool host Aston Villa and is a crucial game for Liverpool for a Champions League place coming off the back of 4 consecutive defeats at home Klopps team will be looking to towards ending this drought. With only teams below them in the league left to play at home, winning today would create an ideal springboard to achieve that aim. Liverpool’s home goals average is 1.47 giving a slight statistical advantage over Aston Villas away goal average of 1.27. The Villa do not have a good away record playing teams higher in the league winning only one against leicester City. Liverpool will want to forget the humiliating defeat in the previous meeting with Villa and set the record straight, 7-2 is a very good incentive. I think that Liverpools ability is coming back to the fore now as have hit form in the Premier League, beating Arsenal 3-0 and Wolves 1-0 in their last 2 matches away.

The next game in the troublesome trio is Bournemouth v Coventry City. My wifes’ family all support Coventry as do some of the guys at work and this analysis may seem a bit disloyal to them but I look at stats and Coventry Citys’ away record is something dreadful only winning 2 of their away games this season and “Losing to Nil” 8 times form the 19 games they travelled. Bournemouth on the other hand have picked up 16 points from their last 8 games and are on a charge for those play-off places that are so tantalisingly close. We are getting towards the end of the season where nearly every kick of the ball counts and Coventry City just don’t play well away from home.

Lastly is the Derby County v Norwich City where Norwich could clinch the title today if they win and and both Brentford and Swansea fail to win. Derby have picked up just 5 points from their last 8 games as opposed to Norwich City gaining 4 times that figure. Offensively Norwich City have scored 64 goas from the 40 games this season , concedeing just 28 whereas Derby have scored just 30 from the same number of games.
Skybet have offered, as always, a cop out for this game, giving alternatives in the guise of Liverpool, Bournemouth to win and Derby to Draw (12/1) and Liverpool, Bournemouth and Derby to win (16/1).


Fulham, The Bookies Favourites???

The popularity of boosted trebles is undoubtedly one of the best money spinners for the bookies yet. Enhanced trebles and shots on target are just two “featured” bets offered by bookies which are designed to take your money. The average punter will only see the odds and perhaps 2 “bankers” and think perhaps the third team will win and willingly give the bookies their money
I have just done a blog post on paddy powers friday night special (read it here) which features Fulham
The conclusion to this post was that If the bookies put fulham, at home, in a “featured specially boosted just for the punter enhanced treble” And if the other teams won they would have only had to pay out twice in sixteen times.
If we take the average acca at odds of 6/1 and if the average bet is £10 then you would have staked £160 but won just £120. That is some profit margin for the bookies!!
With just a quick look at the bookmakers sites I found the following had all put Fulham in their “Special” bets tonight.
Paddy Power
Betfair
Boylesports,
Coral
BetVictor.
All I can say is I hope Fulham Win but I doubt it. Another bonza payday for the bookies!!