Category Archives: Boosted Bet

Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win

Ladbrokes are the target treble today again. They have boosted this treble from 4.0 (3/1) to 4.5 (7/2) on the Smarkets exchange you can get 4.8 (Which is very nearly 4/1)
Rangers seem to be the banker leg of this treble and a win tonight will add a further 3 point to their 72 points. With a 100% scoring rate you would hope that there will be plenty of goals.

In the 2nd leg of this treble, 5th place Napoli take on 7th placed Atalanta in Italy’s Coppa Italia clash tonight. Recent form in the league (Serie A) from the last 8 games have seen 4 wins 1 draw and 3 Losses for Napoli but Atalanta have a slightly better record of 4 wins 3 draws and only one Loss which was quite a spanking by 6th place Lazio (1-3). Napoli’s record against similarly matched opponents (3 above and 3 below) includes a 4-0 drubbing against Roma a 1-0 loss against Inter Milan losing to Lazio 2-0 but in the last clash with Atalanta, last October, stuffing them 4-1. Napoli seems to have quite a solid record when playing at home. Atalanta, on the other hand, seems to be content with draws when playing away. As far as this Cup Match goes Napoli’s two games so far in this competition have been 3-2 v Serie B side Empoli and 4-2 against Serie A Side 16th place Spezia. Atalanta’s cup record is a bit more impressive however and consists of knocking out Serie A sides Lazio and Cagliari from the competition with 3-2 and 3-1 scorelines respectively. The Lazio game saw Atalanta have a red card AND a missed penalty! It is plain that both of these teams have ample ability of scoring goals so predicting which side will win is difficult.

The final leg of this conundrum involves the French Ligue 1 clash of Dijon v Lyon. Lyon are at present snapping at the heels of 1st place Lille and a win tonight might just boost them into top spot if Lille draw against Bordeaux. Dijon are most definitely looking at relegation this season with a home record of only 6 points from 11 games. A slightly worrying fact is that Lyon earlier in the season only managed a 1-1 draw against 18th Lorient but this seems to be just a blot on the landscape as Lyon had 6 shots on target and 3 blocked shots so Lorient just had an outstanding defence that day.

The sticking point in this bet is without doubt the Coppa Italia match and creating a new treble by replacing a Napoli win with over 2.5 goals may be prudent if you wanted to. But the aim of this blog is to pick holes in these so called boosted bets and I think I have achieved this.

Watford, Betis and Sporting Lisbon All T Win

Ladbrokes have boosted this Bet to 9.5 (17/2) from 9.0 (8/1) So Generous!!
Using Smarkets to find a Lay Price I find that the price should be closer to 11.0 (10/1) This is Ladbrokes!

Watford are hosting QPR tonight and will move into 3rd place behind Swansea with a win tonight. Form against teams in a similar position to QPR is favourable with 3-2 against Coventry and 2-0 against Rotherham. QPR on the other hand are struggling to stay clear of the relegation zone and are clearly finding this league difficult. Defeats from Barnsley 3-0 and Brentford 2-1 have proved this side have no problem conceding goals. Slightly in their favour are a 1-1 draw against league leaders Norwich who Watford beat 1-0, a goalless draw with Bournemouth however seem to suggest they have difficulty scoring! This has all the hallmarks of a low scoring game with perhaps Watford managing to scrape 3 points from it.

Betis take on Osasuna in a La Liga clash that is perhaps not the most evenly matched contest today. Betis have had convincing wins over all of the bottom third teams in the league with the exception of a 0-2 spanking by Eibar who are currently laying 15th two places above Osasuna. In complete contrast Osasuna have been beaten resoundingly by most of the upper echelon of the league with the notable win against Granada. Tey are, however, not without goalscoring talents having scored 8 goals in 10 away matches compared with Betis managing 4 more while playing at home. The stats suggest that if they get through the first 15 minutes without conceding, but something about this game niggles me. Osasuna have lost their last 9 games away and this one might just be the catalyst to break that habit.

The Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders Sporting CP (Lisbon) is the focus for the last game of this trio and they play Benfica who are currenly 3rd. A win for Lisbon will see them stay 4 points clear as Porto play Rio Ave as well tonight. It is all very tight at the top with everyone having everything to play for. Offensively both teams are pretty evenly matched with Lisbon scoring 33 goals from 15 games, 3 more than Benfica but Benfica are not as efficient in defence conceding 15 goals in as many games 6 more than Lisbon. Neither team has lost a game in the last 8 but Lisbon have only drawn 2 to Benfica’s 3. Both teams drew in their last match and if it wasn’t for the fact that Porto are also playing tonight I would say that this might also be the case again.

The verdict on this Treble to my mind is leave well alone.

Getafe and Sporting Gijon both to win

Betfair Sportsbook are the focus today offering odds of 4.0 (3/1) on La Liga’s Getafe and La Liga 2 side Sporting Gijon both to win their games at lunchtime
Getafe are currently 14th in the league and are playing 18th place Alaves.
A win for Getafe would boost them into the top 10 whereas victory for Alaves would see them out of the relegation zone if only temporarily. Getafe have secured 10 points from the last 8 league games whereas Alaves have only managed to accumulate 4 points from the same number of games. Getafe, when playing at home, have only managed 1-0 victories in games played against teams lower than them in the league and losing one game 0-1 against Valladolid suggesting that goals do not come easy to them whereas Alaves do seem to be able to hit the back of the net while not being able to win as they have scored at least one goal in the last 6 league matches played. Their offensive strikes do put them above Getafe in that respect. Defensively however Getafe have conceded 23 goals in 19 matches played against Alaves 29 conceded goals in 20 matches. Upon reflection it would seem that Alaves are more hungry to stay in the league than getafe want to climb and would not be surprised if the match ended 1-1
Onto the second half of the bet which comes from La Liga 2 and involves 2 sides from opposite ends of the league. Sporting Gijon are currently 5th with 36 points only 1 point behind Rayo Vallecano. Cartagena on the other hand are languishing in 21st place only being buoyed up from bottom spot by a game in hand. Playing at home Sporting Gijon are quite formidable earning 25 points from 11 games whereas Cartagena do seem to be struggling when away fixtures have only secured them 9 points from the same number of matches. Defensively Cartagena don’t seem to be able to prevent goals being scored letting in 33 goals this season. The probable outcome of this match will be a home win but would be very wary of Getafe being able to pull off a victory today.
Upon reflection I don’t think putting any money on this double would be profitable and will be keeping my money in my pocket.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1+ Shot on target

Today, at lunchtime, Everton take on Newcastle at Goodison Park. SkyBet have boosted the odds of Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1 or more shots on target from 1/6 to even money. There are stake limits to this boost but if the research pans out and the man actually starts, then any stake used will add towards the Sky Bet Club weekly free bet.
These two teams last met in the premiership on 1st November 20 at St James’ Park and Newcastle won 2-1
This is irrelevant however as we are looking for D.C-L stats and find that he scored Everton’s only goal in the last minute. D.C-L is the teams highest goal scorer this season and is 2 goals off the top for the golden boot on 11 goals scored.
Past performances starting with the most recent games are as follows
v Leicester City (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Wolves (A) Did not play due to hamstring injury (12 Jan)
v West Ham (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Sheffield Utd (A) 1 shot on goal 0 on target
v Arsenal (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Leicester City (A) 3 shots at goal 2 on target
v Chelsea (H) 1 shot at goal 0 on target
v Burnley (A) 4 shots at goal 3 on target
v Leeds Utd (H) 3 shots at goal 1 on target
v Fulham (A) 3 shots at goal 3 on target
v Man Utd (H) 1 shot at goal 0 on target

Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s stats are quite impressive when matched against the likes of Mo Salah and Kane when I researched their shots on goal stats earlier in the week.
Having started 16 times for Everton this season in Premiership Matches he has played for a total of 1409 minutes scored 11 times and has a match average of 1.6 shots on target (same as Kane)
With it being Saturday I can look into todays match itself with a bit more depth. Newcastle’s defensive stance in recent games looks pretty dismal having only won 2 points from the last 8 games and conceded 34 goals from 20 matches played. It would seem that this might be an ideal opportunity for Calvert-Lewin to climb into that top spot in the race for the golden Boot this season.
I will be waiting to see the team sheet before the match and IF he starts then will likely add a few more quid towards my weekly free bet 🙂

Tottenham v Liverpool Shots on Target

Tonight Tottenham host Liverpool. and several bookies are offering boosts to their shots on target markets. Today as all the stats are in one place I will be looking at SkyBets very attractive offer of Kane and Salah to have 2 or more shots on target each at 9.0 (8/1) And Virgin Bets each team 2 or more shots on target each half!! 3.75 (11/4).
Lets start by looking at the last time these 2 teams met on the 16 Dec 2020 at Anfield. The score was 2-1 and Liverpool had most of the match dominating the possession 76% to 24% Liverpool had 11 shots on Target with Tottenham only having 2 . Salah acounted for 4 of those by Liverpool and Kane only one of the 2 by Tottenham. VirginBets offering, at this stage doesnt look too inviting, however I will dig deeper. Kanes’ average shots on target figure is 1.6 / 90 minutes. Salah does not fair much better with an average of 1.8. Both of therse players are the 2 top goal scorers this season with Salah scoring 13 and Kane sharing second spot with Son on 12 goals.

Since that meeting, and starting with Kane, He has had 2 or more shots on target in the following matches.
Leicester (A) 2
Leeds Utd (H) 2
Sheffield Utd (A) 2

Salahs’ only 2 or more shots on target game since 16 Dec is
Crystal Palace (A) 2 (only played 33 minutes)
This seems quite worrying as a dip in form is indicated.

Will probably only put one of my £5.00 free bets on this

After going through the recent form of both teams it seems that 4 shots on target for each team would probably be quite a good bet the problem arises when 2 shots have to be in both halves for both teams. I am still looking for a stats sight that split the halves so will not commit either way on the virginBet Bet


Tammy Abraham to have OVER 2 shots on target

Tonight Chelsea take on Wolves without Lampard at the helm. How will they fair? they are odds on to win with all the bookmakers. William Hill have offered boosted odds of 6.0 (5/1) instead of 5.0 (4/1) that Tammy Abraham will get 3 or more shots on target. At their last meeting at Molineux on 15 Dec 2020 Abraham was on the Bench and played for just 19 minutes not even managing a shot at goal let alone one on target!

Since then he has played in the 1st XI against
West Ham getting 2 shots on target (scoring both times)
Arsenal scoring their only goal with his one shot on target
Leicester not having any shots on target
In the Fulham game he played for 25 minutes coming off the bench to yet again only have 1 shot on target.
He has only, out of 20 games, made 9 1st XI appearances having only a 1.3 shots on target average per match this season.
I would want odds of at least 20/1 before I put money on this bet but as ever will wait until the team is announced.

Ings, Ward-Prowse & Lacazette 1+ shot on Target Each

Tonights boosted bet is courtesy of SkyBet and involves the Southampton v Arsenal Game which Kicks off at 20:15.

They have very considerately provided the following information

  • Ings landed the Featured Price Boost with a shot on target on Saturday against Arsenal.
  • Ward-Prowse had a shot on target last Tuesday against Shrewsbury.
  • Lacazette has had 9 shots on target in his last 5 Premier League games.

The odds for this is at the time of writing 7.0 (6/1) so 10 quid will net you £60

The last time these two teams played each other was Saturday 23 Jan 2021 – Today is 26 Jan 2021 The venue is the same
The three players in question had the following shots
Ings – 4 shots only 1 on target (Played 85 mins )
Ward Prowse 3 shots 0 on target (Played 90 mins)
Lacazette 0 shots 0 on target (Played 18 mins!!)

These simple stats read very differently from the information provided.

Further investigation, therefore, is warranted

Starting with Lacazette
v Newcastle (H) 2 shots on target. played 90 minutes.
v Crystal Palace (H) 0 shots on target. played 81 minutes.
v Newcastle (FA CUP (H)) 0 shots on target. played 18 minutes.
v West Brom (A) 4 shots on target. played 90 minutes.
v Brighton (A) 1 shot on target. played 24 Minutes
v Chelsea (H) 2 shots on target (one was a penalty) played 90 Minutes
This paints, perhaps, a truer picture of the fact that when he actually makes the 1st XI there is more likelihood of him taking a couple of shots and getting them on target. If he is not even on the starting sheet then this is a great cause for concern on taking up this bet.

Next up Ings
v Shrewsbury DNP (Did Not Play)
v Leicester DNP
v Liverpool 2 shots on target (one Goal) played 77 minutes

Finally Ward-Prowse
v Shrewsbury 1 shot on target. played 90 minutes
v Leicester 0 shots on target. played 90 minutes
v Liverpool 0 shots on target Played 90 minutes

These facts are enough to convince me not to spend a tenner here 🙂

West Ham, Brighton and Norwich All to Win

Today I am looking at the SkyBet Saturday Soccer Price Boost. It is West Ham, Brighton all to win boosted from 7/2 to 5/1. West Ham are playing Doncaster at Home, Brighton are also at home playing Blackpool and Norwich are away at Barnsley. The “Helpful Information” provided by SkyBet relates to the Super 6 game and the percentage of players that have picked the above teams in their selections. These are as follows.
West Ham 98%
Brighton 90%
Norwich 81%
These figures were correct as of 19:00 21/01/2021

The following facts were also published on the day

  • West Ham have won their last 4 games in all competitions
  • Brighton will be in a confident mood after a 1-0 win over Leeds last weekend
  • Norwich have won their last 4 games in all competitions and ran out 1-0 winners over Barnsley in the league at the beginning of January


These figures were correct as of 19:00 21/01/2021

Lets see if I can see why SkyBet have chosen these particular matches

West Ham v Doncaster
West Ham, being 7th in the premiership at the moment, are plainly favourites to win this match as Doncaster Rovers are 4th in League One. But this is the F.A. Cup so a serious look at previous form is warrented . West Ham have only played one game so far in this competition, which they won, but only by 1 goal in the 83rd minute against Stockport County, a fifth tier side!
Doncaster have played 3 matches in the F.A.Cup this year all being away scoring 8 goals and conceding just 2. The victories were over United of Manchester, Carlisle United and Doncaster Rovers.

Brighton and Hove Albion v Blackpool
Newport County held Brighton to a 1-1 Draw in the 3rd round with Brighton finally winning on penalties.
Blackpool on the other hand have only conceded 2 goals in the cup this year. This was against West Bromwich Albion in the 3rd Round finally winning on penalties. The other 2 games were against Eastbourne and Harrogate which finished 0-3 and 0-4 respectively.

Barnsley v Norwich City
Both of these teams are in the Championship League albeit at opposite ends. Barnsley progressed to the 4th round by beating Tranmere Rovers 2-0.
Norwich City, being at the top of the Championship League, will be clear favourites in this contest especially dispatching Coventry City 2-0 in the last round

At the time of writing this none of the team sheets had been released. But I think that SkyBet have been very canny with their match selections. The only game that I would put any substantial amount of cash on would be Norwich to beat Barnsley.

Boosted Bets

Boosted bets are bets offered by many bookmakers which are “boosted” from the normally offered odds up to perhaps as much as 3 points. Stakes for these bets are generally limited to £10 – £20. Matched Bettors such as I used to be find these bets very attractive as they are sometimes boosted to a level that makes laying them off an excellent qualifying bet for promotions that offer free bets for placing so many normal bets (bet 5 x £10 and recieve a free £10 bet on Monday)

Many bookmakers have got wise to this and are increasingly offering boosted bets that are impossible to lay off at the exchanges! These include, amongst others, Player “shots on target”. An example of this might be
“Leicester City v Manchester City – Jamie Vardy 2 or more shots on target Odds 2.8”
This will generally be accompanied with a short fact file such as “Vardy has had a total of 10 shots on target in the last 5 games” This will be perfectly true but what they don’t tell you is that perhaps in games 1-3 he had 3 shots on target in each match but in the last 2 games he only had 1 shot on target total. Sometimes these bets come in and that’s great, but more often than not you are pouring your money into a laughing bookies purse!!

I will be covering perhaps 4-5 of these bets each week from different bookies and doing a deep research job. I will then post my findings here in my blogs for you to make up your own mind as to put money on them. I will also give my own opinion, but that is exactly what it is, an opinion, and not advice. I wont get them all right but the aim is actually to BetOrNot.

I will also be keeping score to £10 stakes awarding myself points on the following basis
A bet which is avoided and loses +10
A bet which is avoided and wins -(odds x 10) eg Odds 3.0 (2/1) x 10 = -20
A bet which is placed and loses -10
A bet which is placed and wins +(odds x 10) eg Odds 3.0 (2/1) x 10 = +20