Having had some success over the past few days with Double or Bust bets I have decided to feature a DOB of the Day Using the In-Running Trading Tool I have set the criteria at the following parameters and lets see how they do.
The “DOB of the Day” will always be the horse which meets all these conditions
DOB rate of over 85% average for all races
Short in running figure zero or greater
A “DOB return” of over £25.00
Forecast odds between 3.0 and 20
A “Runstyle” of 1 or 2
Todays horse that meets all of these conditions is:
17:30 Galway; Past Time She has a forecast S.P. of 3.25 Short in Running Figure is £9.80 Average Runstyle is 2 DOB return of £29.40 She has “DOBBED” every race run giving a 100% DOB Rate
Other factors in her favour are todays race is over 7f, a distance she has only raced at. Same jockey on board (Leigh Roche). It is the most tipped horse in the race (If thats a factor in her favour 😏) I backed her at odds of 4.4 at 12:01 for £5.00 and set an Auto Cash out for £5.00 (a simple but effective way of “DOBBING”) At 12:27 the odds have come in to 3.7
The information used for this bet has come solely from the In-Running Trading Tool There was just 1 selection yesterday which was O’Faolins Lad which went off at a B.S.P. of 14.5 and won To get a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool pleas click the link below
Saturday saw the start of a system that has shown promise, where frustration reigned in regards to well-tipped, short-priced favourites not producing winning performances. When I say Saturday I really mean that I had a 20-20 hindsight day for Friday where I had the fortune of being able to see the results as I mashed the criteria. As you would expect, I got a 100% win rate – who wouldn’t. The two horses concerned were Love is Golden and Jumbly Jumbly won its race but Love is Golden definitely did not but both were low “in-play traders” making it possible to create a small profit from both runners instead of a level stake loss! Applying the same criteria to Saturdays Top Tipped Horses I got 3 horses 14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi 14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge 18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock Loves Me Likearock won its race but the other 2 failed – miserably! However, all three managed at least a 15 tick in play drop from their B.S.P. making the tally so far 5 out of 5 with three of the top tipped selections losing their race Happy days so far then Sunday gave up just 2 selections 14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips) 14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips) Minella Trump won and a B.S.P. of 1.72 soon passed the 15 tick mark after climbing to an in-play high of 2.34 the half length that it won by might have had me twitching a bit if I had been watching but a win is a win. Bigbadmattie on the other hand, despite being quite heavily tipped was not favourite and went off at a B.S.P. of 3.4 and according to Timeform traded in-play at a low of 3.2. this is just 4 ticks. However! I actually backed and laid this race and horse and my lay bet of 2.8 was matched during the race
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I am going to take this as a winner for the system – It would/might have not been totally matched if the bet was more than a tenner 7 from 7 for me and only 3 from 7 as regards to outright winners from the experts. On to today and there is just one selection that meets the criteria 14:10 Newton Abbott; Kilmington Rose A race of just 3 runners and I have just backed it at 1.64! This will have to trade as low as 1.49 for a 15 tick drop
Please take a look at my other posts regarding this system if you want to learn more and a 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by Clicking the link below
Alotaibi was forecast at an S.P. of 1.33 and you would be excused from thinking that with 10 tips from the National Racing Press “Experts” that this is surely one of those banker moments – Alas it was not to be as Wanees came home in front! However Alotaibi did have a B.S.P. of 1.85 which was 13 ticks more than the industry S.P. and reached an in-play Low of 1.4! This was in fact a 45 tick drop – more than enough to meet our requirements of 1.7 for 15 ticks and a small profit Valley Forge with 11 tips and a NAP pushing it along and an attractive forecast S.P. of 3.00 (2/1) many a punter would think that it is “money back time” This was not to be unfortunately as Valley Forge managed just 3rd out of a field of 6. But as it turned out all was not lost as the B.S.P. was 2.51 and his in-play low dipped to 2.00 giving a tick drop of 25. This gave an in running profit of 12.8% With 2 out of 2 losers as far as the straight punters were concerned, I on the other hand have an overall profit of 10% on my stakes. The evening meeting at Wolverhampton and my last selection in this system was most tipped horse with 12 tips, Loves Me Likearock. Winning by just half a length very nearly made it 3 disasters for the favourite backers. Going off at 2.07 at the Betfair exchange traded to the lowest possible at 1.01 and another win for the system and finishing up 10% up on my stakes
There are just 2 selections today (5th Sept) 14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips) 14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
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The screenshot above shows the form and other stats for the two horses To get a free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool” The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings. I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters DOB % >= 50% Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75% Win % >= 20% These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site. This gave me this screen
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The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were 15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden 15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt 15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame 16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord 17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel 18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings 18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark 18:45 Kempton; Altraif 19:15 Kempton; Jumbly 19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list Love is Golden amd Jumbly Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board. By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:
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We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality. In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded
Back Bet
Lay bet
The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5 A successful Trade! Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam. With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!
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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.
Just 2 horses finished 1st yesterday from the 10 most tipped horses and these were Finest Sound and Find both running at Yarmouth. An absolute disastrous day as far as level bet wagering was concerned, however, as in the previous 2 days there was a 100% strike rate in the 15 tick drop system. This makes it 30 for 30. In the table below you can see that there were a couple of near things but the facts remain, from the 3 days trialled I have come away with profits each day.
Horse
Meeting
Time
Tips
B.S.P.
i-p Low
15 Tick
Result
Mahanakhen Power
Yarmouth
13:30
7
3.81
1.6
3.05
2nd
Beltane
Beverley
13:55
11
2.53
1.85
2.22
2nd
Finest Sound
Yarmouth
14:05
8
2.96
1.01
2.66
1st
Find
Yarmouth
14:40
11
1.34
1.01
1.19
1st
Firth of Clyde
Goodwood
14:50
11
1.59
1.09
1.44
2nd
Epic Pass
Goodwood
15:25
8
2.22
1.93
1.96
2nd
Rhoscolyn
Goodwood
16:00
6
5.23
3.8
3.85
3rd
Just Fine
Goodwood
16:35
7
2.36
1.88
2.06
Last
Molly Shaw
Yarmouth
17:00
7
3.82
2.2
3.05
4th
Cool Spirit
Beverley
17:20
7
3.57
2.64
2.92
7th
Todays’ top tipped horses are, as with previous posts in this study, exported from the In-Running Trading tool website in the form of an easy to view spreadsheet. Included in this information is each runners previous BSP and in-play low odds as well as its average tick drop for all races it has run in.
I have also included for your convenience my own 15 tick drop calculator simply enter your back odds and stake in the appropriate boxes and the odds for a 15 tickdrop and the required stake to obtain a level profit if the horse wins or loses will automatically be shown. The commission rate is set at 2% by default and this can also be changed by entering your own rate.
If you want to learn more on trading in play and want free access to all the stats provided by In Running Trading Tool you can get a free 7 day trial of the In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below.
Using the same criteria even though one runner yesterday went out of scope on the B.S.P. there are two probable selections for today Just to remind you of the criteria
1. Settings as Default
2. Open the ShortInRunning tab
3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.
4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate
4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.
5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5
The first is Café Sydney in the 15:15 at Brighton. With a win rate percentage of 16.67 and a forecasted B.S.P. of 13.00 Mollie Phillips has piloted this horse to a 65 tick drop at Leicester last time out and a massive 193 tick drop at its last time running here at Brighton. I think that it is worth mentioning the “Race style” column on the spreadsheet. This is represented by the numbers 1-4 with 1 being a front runner and 4 liking the veiw of the other horses arses! The average race style of Cafe Sydney is 3 but in its last 7 Runnings 3 of which it won, albeit on the all weather, the actual race style was 4 and only once did it not meet the 15 tick drop threshold and that was at Windsor on soft ground. This suggests that it likes other horses to make the running and then break from behind but doesn’t like soft going. With the going at Brighton this afternoon being good, hopes are high for this one. The second selection on the list is Ballon Onabudget (who thinks these names up?) which has a forecasted B.S.P. of just 3.50 and looking at the betting markets is currently 3rd fav at 4.5 at SkyBet. A winrate % of 20.05% and running over 2 miles today instead of its usual 3ish miles (its last 9 outings have been between 2m6f and 3m2f. Its average race style is actually 3 but the last twice it ran over todays distance it was 2 hinting that at the shorter distance it likes to be in touch with the leader in the hopes of making that final break for it near the end. With only 5 runners in the race today I think that on previous form and with Johnathan Burke on board we may have a 1-2 clean up today lets face it I need it after yesterday. As I have done previously I have provided the spreadsheet detailing these two runners form, race styles and starting odds etc. for download by clicking the link below
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Hi All I will get straight into the results so I can post todays selections in my next post Yesterday there were 3 possible selections for the 15 tick drop strategy all at different racecourses The first on the list was Viking Ruby running at Worcester in the 13:35, Far from being favourite it went off at odds of 24.9 on Betfair and the in-play low price got to 8.4 before the traders gave up. Although this B.S.P. is out of our scope it is worth logging as these rules are not set in stone and I can adjust them as more results play out. The 15 tick drop price would have been 15.00 so this would have been a complete success giving a healthy £6.02 profit after Commission had been deducted Middle for Diddle was Affable running in the 15:30 at Naas. A healthy in scope B.S.P. of 11.00 rose to an in-play low of 15.00 which means that the jockey must have put the damned horse in reverse at the start losing £10.00 into the bargain. Lastly, and fortunately a placed horse Beyond Equal started with a healthy in scope B.S.P. of 9.40 dropped to an in-play low of just 2.00 which easily met our 15 tick target of 6.4 and after betfair commission has been paid I was left with £4.18 profit. In summary then with one runner out of scope I lost £5.82 on day 1 to £10.00 stakes No one can accuse me of waiting until I had a winning day to start my study.
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Similar to trading a 15 tick drop, this system allows the trade to trading price to drop to 50% of the back price and lay at double the stake. for instance if you back a horse at 10/1 (11.00) for £10.00 to double your stake you would need to lay the horse in running at odds of 9/2 (5.50) at a stake of £20.00! The calculation is as follows Back £10.00 @ 11.00 returns a £100.00 profit (£10 stake x 11.00 Odds – £10 stake = £100) if the horse wins, -£10.00 if it loses Lay £20.00 @ 5.50 will give a loss of £90 (£20.00 stake x 5.5 odds – £20.00 stake) if the horse wins, £20.00 profit if it loses. So if the horse wins we win £10.00 (£100 – £90) and if the horse loses we win £10.00 (£20 – £10) There would also be a commission to pay at what ever rate betfair charge you on your account, in my case it is 2% so I would be left with a £9.80 profit. and its doesn’t matter if the horse wins or loses. This part is simple enough the hard part is finding suitable horses in which this strategy has a greater chance of happening than others. Every horse that wins, DOBs this is a fact! so you might be excused to think that if you DOB all favourites then you should be in profit but the figures for all outright favourites winning in 2020 was just over 35% and some of the other 65% of losers would undoubtedly have DOBbed but we are looking for a more cast iron way of picking suitable runners. This is where the nice people at “In Running Trading Tool” website come in. In their “simple DOB strategy they recommend the following criteria
Eliminate all horses that have a DOB% rate of 84.99% or less
Eliminate all horses that have a “ShortinRunning” figure that is a negative
There is no criteria mentioned for forecast odds or win% rate.
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As you can see from the screen shot above there are only 2 suitable selections for today and while the picture is not as clear as I would like I have also “Expanded” the stats for each runner to show their BSP and in-play low prices for all of their previous races to try and get a feel for the prices involved and how they ran
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I have zoomed in on the first runner to try and make it a bit clearer so you can see that Sol Del Mar hasn’t looked like winning in all three of its previous races coming 17th, 11th, and 10th. It is however ridden by Conor Hoban who, in his 2 previous rides convinced the traders to back him in running to low prices of 8.00 and 16.00 from B.S.P.s of 80.52 and 471.69 respectively. With these facts in the back of my mind I am going to set the betangel software that I use for trading to back these 2 runners at best price 10 seconds before post time and to trade out at 50% tick drop during in-play I will post the resulting profit or loss on a post tomorrow The beauty of using the in running trading tool is that yesterdays figures can be called as they were posted on the day and without the days results incorporated into the stats so that you can actually do a real time analysis of the criteria knowing in advance the result
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With a 100% success yesterday the selections for this study as determined by the criteria defined on In Running Trading Tool website are as follows
Viking Ruby 13:35 Worcester
Affable 15:30 Naas
Beyond Equal 17:20 Sandown
Viking Ruby has a forecast B.S.P of 13.00 and a “Short In Running” return of £17.00. A win rate percentage of 15.79% put it just within the parameters required Affable has the biggest win rate percentage of 23.53% and a forecast B.S.P. of just 6.00. “Short In Running” returns are £3.50 and an average “Tick Drop” of 94! Beyond Equal with a forecast B.S.P. of 11.00 and a profitable “Short In Running” figure of £3.50 as well as a 20% win rate percentage As yesterday the complete form, previous B.S.P and in play low prices along with average race style and a host of other information is availale in the form of a spreadsheet that you can download from the link below.
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Carrying on from yesterdays post I outlined the nuts and bolts of trading a horse in play after backing it at B.S.P. (Betfair Starting Price). This system of trading uses a specific set of criteria pulled from the In Running Trading Tool website.
1. Settings as Default
2. Open the ShortInRunning tab
3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.
4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate
4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.
5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5
Using this determined that there were 4 possible selections. These were Wrenthorpe 15:20 Chester Pablo Escobar 15:35 York Robin Des Foret 16:35 Killarney Cockalorum 16:45 York These horses and their form were provided in the form of a spreadsheet which I posted for download and if you missed it you can download it below
Starting with Wrenthorpe The B.S.P. forecast was 17.00 but actually went of at 32.00 making it move outside of the scope and therefore disqualifying it from the system but it did go on to trade inplay at a low of 16.5 with the 15 tick threshold at 18.00 would have made a successful trade. making a £7.10 profit to a £10.00 stake after commission deductions. Pablo Escobar The B.S.P. forecast was 21 just qualifying for the study but went off at a massive 65 15 ticks below this price is 28 but it went on to trade at 17. had we have initiated this trade when the market hit 28.00 we would have made a £12.41 profit to our £10.00 stake. The horse actually finished 8th out of 20, 10 lengths off the winner! Robin Des Foret With the lowest forecast B.S.P. yet at 13.00 this seemed as though we may have seen a bet placed ready for a trade but fortunately, in hindsight, the B.S.P. was in fact 35.76 making the 15 tick trade point 19.00. It only traded at an in-play low of 24.00 potentially losing us our £10.00 stake Cockalorum This was the last selection meeting the potential criteria and actually went off 3 ticks below the forecast B.S.P. of 17.00 at 16.70 trading inplay at a low of 4.2. Our 15 tick trade point was 9.6 making a £6.80 profit to a £10.00 stake.
In summary then of the 4 possible selections the only horse to actually start within the parameters was Cockalorum and did handsomely putting us £6.80 up on day 1.
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Betornot 