Boosted bets

Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win

Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 10.0 (9/1) to 11.0 (10/1). Norwich are the only odds on favourite of the trio and I will start with them.
Norwich will be looking to reclaim their top spot in the championship with a win against 9th placed Stoke City. Norwich, at home, have won 2 (Bristol City 2-0 Barnsley 1-0) and drawn 2 (Middlesbrough 0-0, QPR 1-1) while skoke have a 100% draw rate in their last 4 away games suggesting a worrying pattern perhaps for Norwich City. Their defeat at the hands of Swansea last week may just have knocked their confidence a trifle. Norwich however are not without ability and have managed 12 points from 8 games while Stoke have only topped up their points total by only 6 in the same number of games. Away defeats for Stoke when playing top of the league sides do seem to have a trend with the exception of reading which they won 0-3 Norwich have some good wins under their belt when playing mid table sides winning to nil against Bristol City, Cardiff City and Barnsley. I would think that on previous form Norwich should win this but not until the last quarter of the game where they seem to score most of their goals.

Cardiff City are hosting Penalty Plagued Coventry City today and should be an interesting game. With home odds of 2.1 Ladbrokes are being the most generous bookie with most others offering 2.0 – 2.05. This does actually look a promising leg of the treble as Coventry City do seem to be prone to conceding goals through penalties with no less than 7 being awarded against the Sky Blues since September, suggesting a defensive weakness that Cardiff may take advantage of, turning the tables on their 1-0 defeat last November when these two teams last met. It does look like a win for Cardiff would put them nearer safety and into the top half of the Championship League. Coventry are far from safe, and desperation causes mistakes which they have proved they make!

As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Ladbrokes are offering 2.60 (0.15 more than William Hill as I mentioned in my previous post https://bet-or-not.com/2021/02/13/rangers-crystal-palace-and-watford-all-to-win/ ) on a home win against 3.0 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.

This treble is as always a risk as it has been boosted by the bookie (always suspect!!)
As Ladbrokes have imposed a maximum stake of £0.00 on my account I will not be taking the risk myself (Yes that’s right A BIG FAT ZERO! they live in fear of me 🙂 )

The best of Luck with whatever you decide 🙂

Rangers, Crystal Palace and Watford all to win

First up Today is William Hills Super Odds – Saturday 3pm Treble
Max stake on this is a fiver and this on its own suggests to the unsuspecting punter that the bookie is frightened that the bet will win. Whereas if you scroll down the page a bit to the enhanced Odds section bigger odds specials exist with no stake restrictions!!
Enough bookie psychology, down to facts
Rangers are flying high at the top of the Scottish Premiership and host 10th place (out of 12) Kilmarnock. The goalscoring ability of rangers at present are with out precedence, managing an average strike rate of 3 goals per match when playing at home, Kilmarnock do struggle a little as they have only managed to score 9 goals away this season. Odds for a rangers win today are 1.15 with Hills. That is quite a carrot on the end of the stick. I will skip Crystal Palace for a minute and look towards the other short priced selection.
Watford are also at home today to Bristol City, will want to collect some points today after a three match streak of only picking up 2 points with goalless draws against Coventry City and Millwall and perhaps an inexcusable defeat at the hands of QPR. 3 points today will keep them level with Reading (who are likely to beat Millwall today) in that all important promotion play-off zone. Watford’s home record while playing mid table teams such as Bristol are Mostly wins with two notable losses One against QPR as I mentioned above and the other against Cardiff City in one of the few matches where Watford failed to score at all. Bristol City on the other hand undoubtedly struggle against teams from the top of the table when away losing to Brentford (3-2), Norwich (2-0), Reading (3-1) and Bournemouth (1-0).
Watford’s defensive posture is second only to Swansea having conceded only 20 goals from 28 games played (Swansea have only conceded 15!). While their offensive record is similar to Bristols, having scored 31 goals to Bristols 29 from the same number (28) of games. Watford seem to be quick goal merchants catching their opponents off guard at the beginning of halves as they, when playing at home, scored 6 in minutes 0-15 and 7 in minutes 46-60. Bristol do have a bigger proportion of conceded goals when away in minutes 0-15 so a big possibility of a morale destroying goal by Watford would Indubitably help their cause.
As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Hill are offering 2.45 on a home win against 3.1 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.

This treble has been boosted from 3/1 (which is very generous as should you put these games into a treble on your betslip you would get 7/2!!) to 5/1

these are the facts and you can make up your own mind
Good Luck with whatever you Decide

Man Utd, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all to win

Today Ladbrokes has a “Favourites Treble” on offer. They have boosted the bet from 6.0 to 6.5. Man Utd and Real Madrid are odds on favs but Inter are 2.3 (13/10) Both the Man Utd and Inter games are cup matches while the Real Madrid game is La Liga.

Man Utd play West Ham in the F.A.Cup and are currently 1.67 with Ladbrokes.
Having knocked out Watford 1-0 and Liverpool 3-2 neither game was a convincing win especially the Watford result. West Ham are coming into this cup tie on the back of a goalless draw against Fulham.
Man Utd have a couple of injury absentees with notably Pogba out with a thigh injury and Phil Jones with a long standing knee problem.

Inter Milan take on Juventus Away in the Coppa Italia with an away goal deficit after Juventus beat them 1-2 in the first leg. Inter will have to pull something out of the hat for this one and I suspect Juventus being at home will be satisfied with a draw.
La Liga is the destination for the final leg of this treble and 3rd place Real Madrid take on 13th place Getafe at home. Real are pushing for the top while it seems Getafe while having some good results are marking time mid-table. This match feels more the banker of the 3 and the odds of 1.53 reflect that.
I think that this treble may be trouble
Betternot 🙂

Getafe and Sporting Gijon both to win

Betfair Sportsbook are the focus today offering odds of 4.0 (3/1) on La Liga’s Getafe and La Liga 2 side Sporting Gijon both to win their games at lunchtime
Getafe are currently 14th in the league and are playing 18th place Alaves.
A win for Getafe would boost them into the top 10 whereas victory for Alaves would see them out of the relegation zone if only temporarily. Getafe have secured 10 points from the last 8 league games whereas Alaves have only managed to accumulate 4 points from the same number of games. Getafe, when playing at home, have only managed 1-0 victories in games played against teams lower than them in the league and losing one game 0-1 against Valladolid suggesting that goals do not come easy to them whereas Alaves do seem to be able to hit the back of the net while not being able to win as they have scored at least one goal in the last 6 league matches played. Their offensive strikes do put them above Getafe in that respect. Defensively however Getafe have conceded 23 goals in 19 matches played against Alaves 29 conceded goals in 20 matches. Upon reflection it would seem that Alaves are more hungry to stay in the league than getafe want to climb and would not be surprised if the match ended 1-1
Onto the second half of the bet which comes from La Liga 2 and involves 2 sides from opposite ends of the league. Sporting Gijon are currently 5th with 36 points only 1 point behind Rayo Vallecano. Cartagena on the other hand are languishing in 21st place only being buoyed up from bottom spot by a game in hand. Playing at home Sporting Gijon are quite formidable earning 25 points from 11 games whereas Cartagena do seem to be struggling when away fixtures have only secured them 9 points from the same number of matches. Defensively Cartagena don’t seem to be able to prevent goals being scored letting in 33 goals this season. The probable outcome of this match will be a home win but would be very wary of Getafe being able to pull off a victory today.
Upon reflection I don’t think putting any money on this double would be profitable and will be keeping my money in my pocket.

Boosted bets are bets offered by many bookmakers which are “boosted” from the normally offered odds up to perhaps as much as 3 points. Stakes for these bets are generally limited to £10 – £20. Matched Bettors such as I used to be find these bets very attractive as they are sometimes boosted to a level that makes laying them off an excellent qualifying bet for promotions that offer free bets for placing so many normal bets (bet 5 x £10 and recieve a free £10 bet on Monday)

Many bookmakers have got wise to this and are increasingly offering boosted bets that are impossible to lay off at the exchanges! These include, amongst others, Player “shots on target”. An example of this might be
“Leicester City v Manchester City – Jamie Vardy 2 or more shots on target Odds 2.8”
This will generally be accompanied with a short fact file such as “Vardy has had a total of 10 shots on target in the last 5 games” This will be perfectly true but what they don’t tell you is that perhaps in games 1-3 he had 3 shots on target in each match but in the last 2 games he only had 1 shot on target total. Sometimes these bets come in and that’s great, but more often than not you are pouring your money into a laughing bookies purse!!

I will be covering perhaps 4-5 of these bets each week from different bookies and doing a deep research job. I will then post my findings here in my blogs for you to make up your own mind as to put money on them. I will also give my own opinion, but that is exactly what it is, an opinion, and not advice. I wont get them all right but the aim is actually to BetOrNot.

I will also be keeping score to £10 stakes awarding myself points on the following basis
A bet which is avoided and loses +10
A bet which is avoided and wins -(odds x 10) eg Odds 3.0 (2/1) x 10 = -20
A bet which is placed and loses -10
A bet which is placed and wins +(odds x 10) eg Odds 3.0 (2/1) x 10 = +20