Today I have backed each of my ITV 7 selections at available odds for a target profit of £5.00 for each winner. Each selection is timeform’s 5 star rated horse for that race The first one is Maw Lam in the 14:05 at Beverley
Backed for a Stake of £1.67 at odds of 4.0
Next is Can’t Beat History in the 14:15 at Bangor-on-Dee
Backed for a stake of £1.42 at odds of 4.50 This I have backed with Coral as they are offering BOG on all of their races today
Number 3 on the list is Divina Grace in the 14:25 at Haydock.
This I have backed for a £2.00 stake at odds of 3.50
Fourth is at Beverley in the 14:40 with only 5 runners going to post at the time of writing the 5 star selection is Moving Force.
This is the shortest price of the 7 selections and is backed at 2.75 for £2.86
Race 5 is the 15:00 at Haydock 13 runners
Stake is £1.11 at odds of 5.50
6th on the ITV7 card is 15 minutes later in the 15:15 at Beverley with 14 runners going to post
£1.43 at odds of 4.50 would see a return of £6.44 giving a profit of £5.00 if the odds don’t drift.
The last to go on the card today is Ramazan in the 15:35 at Haydock an 11 runner stakes race.
I booboo’d on this one and had to put an extra 17p onto this to make the stake up to £1.00 at odds of 6.00
Requesting your own “build a bet” is not as daunting as first supposed they can only say no or more probably not reply at all but in the cases where they do price your bet they sometimes feature it on the platform. Firstly you need to be armed with your own figures and an idea of what sort of markets you are going to put in to it. To this end I have the beginnings of a Workbook for the premiership which will list the following probable outcomes based on the seasons figures for each team involved. Full Time Goals Half Time Goals Match Shots Match Shots on Target Match Fouls Match Corners Booking Points BTTS
The following is a screen Shot of the stats and actual results from the 2nd game of the season Arsenal v Notts Forest
Arsenal v Notts Forest Sat 12 Aug 2023
The data on the left is collated from all the games Arsenal played at home in the premiership in the season 22/23 and all the games Notts Forest played away in the season The figures on the right are the actual stats from the game played. As you can see the predictions were right on all counts save total shots and the BTTS predictions.
The following games were played that first league week Burnley v Manchester City – No Data
Arsenal v Nott’m Forest – As Above
Bournemouth v West Ham
Bournemouth v West Ham Sat 12 Aug 23
Brighton v Luton – No Data
Sheffield Utd v Crystal Palace – No Data
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Newcastle Utd v Aston Villa Sat 12 Aug 23
Brentford V Tottenham
Brentford v Tottenham Sun 13 Aug 23
Chelsea v Liverpool
Chelsea v Liverpool Sun 13 Aug 23
Man Utd v Wolves
Man Utd v Wolves Mon 14 Aug 23
As you can see from the above screenshots there was just one match which was a winner with all selections coming in.
Nott’m Forest v Sheffield Utd – No Data
Fulham v Brentford – 0-3
Fulham v Brentford Sat 19 Aug 23
Liverpool v Bournemouth – 3-1
Liverpool v Bournemouth Sat 19 Aug 23
Wolves v Brighton – 1-4 Note – The actual corners leg won as the prediction was 8+ ie 8 or more but the bet still lost on the BTTS leg ( I will explain the intricates of the bets below as some bookmakers interpret the wording of bets differently to others)
Wolves v Brighton Sat 19 Aug 23
Tottenham v Man Utd – 2-0
Tottenham v Man Utd Sat 19 Aug 23
Man City v Newcastle Utd – 1-0
Man City v Newcastle Utd Sat 19 Aug 23
Aston Villa v Everton – 4-0
Aston Villa v Everton Sun 20 Aug 23
West Ham v Chelsea – 3-1
West Ham v Chelsea Su 20 Aug 23
Crystal Palace v Arsenal – 0-1
Crystal Palace v Arsenal Mon 21 Aug 23
Luton Town v Burnley – No Data This match was postponed until 3rd Oct 23
Week 2 saw two of our bet builder bets winning but we are regularly being let down by the BTTS selection but I am getting a degree of success with this workbook when I back test Week 3 saw another two builda bets coming in Bournemouth v Tottenham and Newcastle v Liverpool with 2 more being let down by the BTTS leg.
What odds can you expect to get with these bets? That depends on the bookmakers who are willing to price these bets up! You can request these bets via the twitter (or X as it is now known) by using the individual betting sites hash tag address and I found that if you sent your request to them with all of the bookies hash tags in the message then whether or not they thought they might be in competition with each other the odds tended to come back slightly better. The following was one such bet I requested for the Leicester City v West Brom game on 20th April
Typical request a bet post
I got a quick response from Coral with favourable odds of 7/1 (8.0) I also got a message from SkyBet saying that I could build this bet on there platform but this was not strictly true as they didn’t offer some of the legs that I requested. But it is always wise to shop around.
This bet lost 🙄 on the corners leg as I requested a price on the Over 10.5 instead of 10+ market If I had worded this as “10+ Corners” it would have won!!! as there was exactly 10 corners in the match
Lastly I will provide this work in Progess worksheet for you to backtest the entire season if you wish however the 3 promoted sides last season – Burnley, Luton and Sheffield Utd will have no data for the 22/23 season
Betornot 