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Tag Archives: In-play bet
Todays DOB of the Day Friday 10 Sept
Todays DOB of the Day is Makinitup running at Sandown this afternoon in the 15:35.
Making the criteria easily this 3 yr old filly has raced 3 times winning twice. This is the first Handicap she has raced in but it seems that she is in the very capable hands of Cameron Noble as Timeform have posted this in their “Specific Pace Notes” –
“Hold-up horses normally aren’t favoured at this trip here and the pace forecast suggests MAKINITUP (IRE) should still be better placed than AREEHAA (IRE) to take advantage.”
A slight negative to this is that she is yet to run over good ground competitively and the market should be watched nearer post time to see where the money is going.
I however have thrown caution to the wind and Backed her at odds of 4.3 and placed my lay order into the market at odds of 2.13
As you can see her forecast odds are 3.25 so I am hoping that the market will come in closer to post time shortening the gap to my lay order. If you look closely at the image above you can see that as the pace note say Areehaa might well run from the front but is perhaps unable to sustain this as her DOB rate is just 50% and in actual fact she has drifted slightly in the market in response to money going onto Pearl bay who has been backed into 6.2 from about 6.8 a few minutes ago.
There is now just 40 minutes to post time and I apologise for the lateness of the post but I had a Puncture last Night putting me about 3 hours behind – Fridays!!!
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A 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool is available by clicking the link below but be mindful to use it well as 7 days goes very quick when your selections are winning but you are just watching
The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3 Results
Just 2 horses finished 1st yesterday from the 10 most tipped horses and these were Finest Sound and Find both running at Yarmouth. An absolute disastrous day as far as level bet wagering was concerned, however, as in the previous 2 days there was a 100% strike rate in the 15 tick drop system. This makes it 30 for 30. In the table below you can see that there were a couple of near things but the facts remain, from the 3 days trialled I have come away with profits each day.
| Horse | Meeting | Time | Tips | B.S.P. | i-p Low | 15 Tick | Result |
| Mahanakhen Power | Yarmouth | 13:30 | 7 | 3.81 | 1.6 | 3.05 | 2nd |
| Beltane | Beverley | 13:55 | 11 | 2.53 | 1.85 | 2.22 | 2nd |
| Finest Sound | Yarmouth | 14:05 | 8 | 2.96 | 1.01 | 2.66 | 1st |
| Find | Yarmouth | 14:40 | 11 | 1.34 | 1.01 | 1.19 | 1st |
| Firth of Clyde | Goodwood | 14:50 | 11 | 1.59 | 1.09 | 1.44 | 2nd |
| Epic Pass | Goodwood | 15:25 | 8 | 2.22 | 1.93 | 1.96 | 2nd |
| Rhoscolyn | Goodwood | 16:00 | 6 | 5.23 | 3.8 | 3.85 | 3rd |
| Just Fine | Goodwood | 16:35 | 7 | 2.36 | 1.88 | 2.06 | Last |
| Molly Shaw | Yarmouth | 17:00 | 7 | 3.82 | 2.2 | 3.05 | 4th |
| Cool Spirit | Beverley | 17:20 | 7 | 3.57 | 2.64 | 2.92 | 7th |
Todays’ top tipped horses are, as with previous posts in this study, exported from the In-Running Trading tool website in the form of an easy to view spreadsheet. Included in this information is each runners previous BSP and in-play low odds as well as its average tick drop for all races it has run in.
I have also included for your convenience my own 15 tick drop calculator simply enter your back odds and stake in the appropriate boxes and the odds for a 15 tickdrop and the required stake to obtain a level profit if the horse wins or loses will automatically be shown. The commission rate is set at 2% by default and this can also be changed by entering your own rate.
If you want to learn more on trading in play and want free access to all the stats provided by In Running Trading Tool you can get a free 7 day trial of the In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below.
The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further
Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below
Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.
| Horse | Meeting | Time | Tips | BSP | i-p low | 15 tick odds | result |
| Silk Romance | Newmarket | 13:10 | 11 | 1.75 | 1.01 | 1.6 | 1st |
| Razzle Dazzle | Newmarket | 14:20 | 9 | 1.95 | 1.01 | 1.8 | 1st |
| Percy’s Pride | Ffos Las | 15:05 | 10 | 1.42 | 1.01 | 1.27 | 1st |
| Alhezabr | Ffos Las | 15:40 | 10 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 1.87 | 2nd |
| Asjad | Ffos Las | 16:10 | 13 | 1.79 | 1.12 | 1.64 | 2nd |
| Kentucky Rose | Hamilton | 16:35 | 9 | 3.92 | 1.1 | 3.14 | 2nd |
| Thunder Legend | Hamilton | 17:10 | 11 | 1.67 | 1.01 | 1.52 | 1st |
| Sweet Believer | Hamilton | 18:10 | 12 | 1.83 | 1.01 | 1.68 | 1st |
| Country Pyle | Goodwood | 18:23 | 14 | 2.68 | 1.13 | 2.32 | 3rd |
| Mahrajaan | Hamilton | 18:40 | 10 | 2.44 | 1.01 | 2.14 | 1st |
As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed!
I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below
To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 4 Bet 1
Start of the new week brings a new multitude of opportunities to try and end up in profit as well as gaining another £5.00 free bet towards next years Cheltenham festival.
Earlier today I blogged about doing research for Paddy Powers “Beat the Drop” promotion and came across something which had me thinking about my first bet this week.
Middlesbrough are hosting Watford as I write this and the question Paddy Power posed was “will both teams score?”
Research suggested that they probably would but the odds to qualify for a free bet are 2.0 and the odds offered by SkyBet were 1.83
If we look at the soccerstats page for the game on the right hand side near the bottom is a chart names Goal times and below that is another chart of similar composition showing goal times relevent to home and away.
The odds while in play for BTTS behave in a consistent way with the “Yes” odds steadily increasing and “No” odds decreasing.
Using the charts on soccerstats I determined that the probability of a goal being scored before the odds rose to 2.0 were minimal and in fact there was a probability that all would be well until about 25 – 30 mins. It only took about 5 minutes for the odds to get to 2.0 and I snapped my bet on. – My phone has just tinged and lo and behold Watford have just scored in the 32nd Minute. Just hoping that the most likely time for Middlesbrough to score will be in the last 3rd of the second Half but anytime between now and the final whistle will do 😁🤞
The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 3 Bet 3
Bet 3 was a spur of the moment sort of thing while I was running through the in-play games last night ad League two’s match between Carlisle and Crawley
7 minutes in and over 2.5 goals odds were 2.2 so I put my fiver on it
When they scored 10 minutes later and again before half time my hopes were obviously high
Just a shame no one came out to play in the second half 😴😴🤣
I will win one of these !!!!
Betornot 