Ladbrokes continue to entice unsuspecting punters to part with their money offering attractive odds on mediocre trebles but sticking an “odds on” banker in there to sweeten it. They have called this one their “Early Kick Off” Treble even though Man City dont kick off until 16:30.
West Ham host Tottenham today in the “Early Kick off” in this North London Derby. I would imagine that confidence is high in the ladbrokes camp as they have priced West Ham at 3.0 (2/1) on a home victory. West Ham’s form figures for the last 8 games (home and away) read WWWWLWDW quite impressive until you look more closely and see who they played. Tottenham’s form is very much less impressive WDWLLLWL. 3 of these losses came at the hands of Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool.
West Ham are without Ogbonna in defence today who is out due to an ankle injury. They are currently sitting in 5th place six points in front of Tottenham who have a game in hand and two wins (Today and v Burnley next weekend would see them vying for a europa league spot. After today Tottenham’s next 3 premiership games see them up against Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace. West Ham have both Manchesters and Leeds as their next 3 Premiership clashes.
Aston Villa host Leicester City in the middle leg of this treble and an inform Leicester will be wanting to monopolise on their 3-1 victory over Liverpool last week. A win today will see them claim second place in the league and goals will be crucial to keeping Manchester Utd at bay Again Ladbrokes post odds of 3.1 for the home victory leaving Leicester City firm favourites at 2.37 to win away . Aston Villa’s form at home against teams higher in the league can only be counted from 2 matches the most recent of which against West Ham they Lost 1-3 as a plus however they did give Liverpool a spanking earlier in the season winning 7-2. Leicester on the other hand have solid form against mid-table teams. The second half may well decide this game as Aston Villa where they have conceded 64% of their goals against in contrast to Leicester’s 70% of goals scored away from home come in the second half.
Final game in this trio of trouble comes the 16:30 kick off between League leaders Man City and 9th place Arsenal. The Emirates Stadium will be silent again to fans and you cant help but wonder if this has a profound effect on the players. We all know that the home advantage is worth something but without the encouragement of thousands of devoted fans, can that advantage be canceled or even reversed. Man City do seem to be unstoppable with their last 8 games ending in victory whether they were home or away or playing top or bottom teams. They have only lost one game and drawn 3 all season when playing away. Odds of 1.5 are hard to oppose given their current form but odds of 6.5 for a home win seem excessive.
The odds for this tremble have been boosted from 13.0 (12/1) to 15.0 (14/1).
Good luck in whatever you decide.
Betornot!!
Tag Archives: Ladbrokes
Burnley, Liverpool and Fulham All to win
Ladbrokes have several boosted trebles out this morning and Boosted from 6.0 (5/1) to 7.0 (6/1) is burnley, Liverpool and Fulham all to win
Burnley v West Brom
Burnley’s home form is slightly better than West Brom away form. From the last 4 home games Burnley’s form reads DDLW whereas West Brom away form is LLLD.
On the 19th Oct 20 these two teams met in West Bromwich where the game ended goalless. Burnleys home games have however never ended goalless and Neither has West Broms Away games so we can expect to see at least one goal today but from who is anyones guess as proved mid week when an early goal against Man Utd forced a 1-1 goal against the in-form giant. Burnley have come back to win only once at home after their opponents scored first and that was against Aston Villa which ended 3-2. 7 out of 14 of Burnley’s Home game conceded goals came in the first half with 3 of these in the first 15 minutes.
Liverpool v Everton
Anfield see these two mersey stalwarts do battle yet again and because of the Bat Flu, Everton fans will not be at the ground to witness perhaps there first victory at the ground since 1999. It is being shown live however on sky Sports so be prepared for power cuts as 1.4million scousers all tune in at once 😊
Both teams will be out to win and Liverpool perhaps have more to prove with being such out of form in the league. LLLD form from the last 4 home league games have to be improved. An Everton victory today will see the two mersey teams level on points but with Everton having a game in hand and with Everton having conceded less goals away than Liverpool have conceded at home this promises to be a promising battle.
Fulham v Sheffield Utd
Fulham are hosting bottom side Sheffield Utd tonight and today might just be one of those rare times that BetVictor have to Pay up their £2.00 free bet when Fulham win 🤑 If we look at the average points per game (PPG) it can only signal disaster for both sides, with Fulham managing to gain just over 1/2 point per game (0.58) and Sheffield taking an average 0.33 PPG. If you compare this with 10th place Arsenal who average 1.5 PPG and top placed Man City’s 2.25 PPG you get a feel of just how doomed these two sides are. Fulham have managed 1 home win and 3 draws when playing at home whereas Sheffield have an away win and an away draw neither stats being very inspiring. Perhaps BetVictors £2.00 free bet will be safe for another week!
A safer bet than this treble would to put over 1.5 goals for each game into a treble
Burnley Playing at Home Over 1.5 goals 58%
West Brom away Over 1.5 Goals 92%
Liverpool at Home Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Everton Away Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Fulham at Home Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Sheffield Away Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Good luck with whatever you choose to do
Leeds, Real Betis and Lyon all to win
Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 8.5 to 9.5
Lets have a look how the teams stack up
Leeds are away to Wolves tonight and Wolves will be hungry to win this as they would leap Leeds and be snapping at the heels of 10th place Arsenal.
Wolves haven’t lost a game at home against fellow mid table sides in complete contrast to Leeds who have recorded away defeats at the hands (or feet) of Crystal Palace (14th) Arsenal (10th) and Tottenham (9th). Wolves seem to have a habit of conceding the first goal but then rallying to a 60% equalizing rate and then converting that into a win as in the case of the Arsenal game where Pepe scored in the 32nd minute to which Wolves responded in the 45th and 49th minutes. And again when they played Chelsea who scored first in the 49th minute but the match finished in a 2-1 victory for Wolves.
The odds for an away win being 2/1 (3.0) with Ladbrokes seems to suggest that Wolves at 2.3 (13/10) stand a better chance.
Real Betis are hosting Getafe and with the exception of the Eibar game they have won all of their home games against teams lower in the league than them. Getafe have No victories against teams that are above them in the league at all. Real Betis are in quite good form as they have earned 14 points from their last 8 games whereas Getafe have only managed 7, 6 coming from defeating the bottom 2 teams in the league and 1 from a 0-0 draw against 16th placed Alaves! Odds of 2.05 for a home win might be a good bet on its own here and a plus for the treble
Final leg of this boosted treble comes from France. Lyon are being hosted by Brest and victory tonight would see them take a temporary 2nd place in Ligue 1 above PSG (who play Monaco on Sunday)
Lyon have recorded victories against teams in a similar position to Brest but a couple of draws might bring some doubt into this game. To compound this Brest have, while playing at home beaten two of the other top 4 sides Notably a 3-2 win at home and holding top placed Lille to a 0-0 draw away.
I wont be putting any cash on this one either
Good luck in whatever you decide
Chelsea, Athletic Bilbao and Gent all to Win
Ladbrokes must be nervous about sticking another no hoper treble up so have gone for 2 odds on matches and an even money away game, so they are just making it look more punter friendly. Price offered by Ladbrokes is 3.75 from 3.5 If you create this treble on Smarkets you will get 4.0 but there is 2% commision to pay if it wins. Just a quick note – If you create this treble with Ladbrokes you will get 3.70 so where they get 3.5 from is anyone’s guess, although a boost from 3.7 to 3.75 is a bit pathetic to look at on the screen.
Anyway to business, Chelsea host Newcastle and victory tonight would displace out of form Liverpool, who incidentally have only gained one point more than Newcastle from the last 8 games. Chelsea have comfortably beaten all the teams at the lower end of the premiership with the exception of West Brom. It is hard to oppose Chelsea tonight but then it was harder to oppose Man Utd yesterday!
Athletic Bilbao are away to Cadiz and would presume that this is the match Ladbrokes are relying on to snatch your cash. Bilbao are 11th in the league, Cadiz 15th. Bilbao, when playing away this season have scored just 6 points from the 10 games planting them firmly in the bottom spot of the “Away” table. Cadiz, in fairness, don’t fair much better when at home by earning just 10 points from 11 home games. Lost games and draws seem to plague Bilbao when playing bottom third league sides and I will be surprised should they pull a victoy out of this hat tonight.
Gent! What a beautiful city. I used to play Rugby in “Ghent” every Sunday when I was serving in Dusseldorf in the late 80s’. Their football seems to be a bit mediocre at the moment however. Hosting 16th place Mouscron should be a matter of course and odds of 1.44 for a home win do amplify this, but recent form would contradict this as Mouscron are slightly ahead in terms of points earned from the last 8 games.
Gent have two Draws against the 15th and 14th placed sides and a 1-2 loss when they hosted 13th Place Kortrijk (If anyone knows how to pronounce that good for you) The odds are too short for the recent form and instead of putting money on this treble I will probably Lay Gent on the exchange for half the risk.
Good luck with any bets you choose to make but these odds are too short for my taste
Wolves, Celtic and Brentford All to Win
Ladbrokes have Boosted this little trio to 8.5 (15/2) from 7.5 (13/2), as with all bookies boosted bets caution should be exercised as we should assume that they know something we don’t.
First up then is the Premiership clash Southampton v Wolves game, kicking off at 12:00
Southampton’s recent home form (Last 4 home games) in the league reads as follows LLWD with the win being against the mighty Liverpool but with only 2 goals in those 4 matches they seem to have lost some drive. Wolves don’t seem to be faring much better with 2 losses and 2 drawn matches from their last 4 away games, they too are short on goals, with only 3 being scored and all of those in the 3-3 draw with Brighton. Away wins for Wolves against Arsenal (one place above Southampton) and Leeds Utd (2 places above Southampton) and Sheffield Utd (Flat Bottom) are the only “green” on a sea of red having been defeated when away, number no less than 6. Southampton have managed to keep a clean sheet in 55% of home games in contrast to Wolves 27% and actually failing to score in 55% of their away games. Wolves have conceded the biggest majority of goals in the 1st 15 minutes of the second half. With Odds of 3.3 for wolves to win the bookies don’t think they will Win either.
On to the Scottish Premiership where 2nd place Celtic are away to 8th place St Johnstone. A typical 1st quarter all out attack by Celtic may well be thwarted by St Johnstone’ s ability to somehow keep their opponents from scoring in the first 30 minutes or so. (In the 1st 30 minutes of all home games St Johnstone have only conceded 2 goals) Celtics goalscoring prowess comes to the fore however, as they seem to score more goals in the last 15 minutes netting the ball 13 times in this time segment in all away matches. Celtic’s ability to win this game is undisputed and Away win odds of 1.61 reflect this
Brentford are going to want to reclaim their top spot in the Championship League after Norwich scored a rash of goals yesterday against Stoke City and recent form supports this outcome unequivocally having won all but one of their last 8 games which was a 1-1 draw away at Swansea (another in-form team) Brentford enjoy scoring early goals and will, undoubtedly put Barnsley on the back foot should this happen in this game. Their previous meeting back in November ended well for Brentford winng the away fixture 0-1.
These are all lunchtime fixtures and I apologise for my tardiness this morning. If you have already staked money on this boosted bet I sincerely hope that Wolves and Co. do the business for you. As for my Part I won’t and can’t (Max stake still £0.00 🙂 ) be risking my money
Good luck whatever you decide.
Man Utd, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all to win
Today Ladbrokes has a “Favourites Treble” on offer. They have boosted the bet from 6.0 to 6.5. Man Utd and Real Madrid are odds on favs but Inter are 2.3 (13/10) Both the Man Utd and Inter games are cup matches while the Real Madrid game is La Liga.
Man Utd play West Ham in the F.A.Cup and are currently 1.67 with Ladbrokes.
Having knocked out Watford 1-0 and Liverpool 3-2 neither game was a convincing win especially the Watford result. West Ham are coming into this cup tie on the back of a goalless draw against Fulham.
Man Utd have a couple of injury absentees with notably Pogba out with a thigh injury and Phil Jones with a long standing knee problem.
Inter Milan take on Juventus Away in the Coppa Italia with an away goal deficit after Juventus beat them 1-2 in the first leg. Inter will have to pull something out of the hat for this one and I suspect Juventus being at home will be satisfied with a draw.
La Liga is the destination for the final leg of this treble and 3rd place Real Madrid take on 13th place Getafe at home. Real are pushing for the top while it seems Getafe while having some good results are marking time mid-table. This match feels more the banker of the 3 and the odds of 1.53 reflect that.
I think that this treble may be trouble
Betternot 🙂
Norwich, Inter Milan and Valladolid All to Win
I am afraid that Ladbrokes Friday Night Treble is the subject of todays Blog again! I will grant that they have made it very attractive by boosting the odds to 13.0 (12/1) and by picking teams which are all above their opponents in their respective leagues. However all the teams in question are all playing away, and Norwich have had a particular brutal match Itinerary in the past week. Anyway lets have a look at the stats.
First up is Norwich City. As I mentioned above they have played 3 matches in the last 7 days, the 2 league matches ending in goalless draws and a 1-0 defeat in the F.A. Cup. Not too inspiring so far! Swansea on the other hand have had a relatively huge break of 6 days since their win against Rotherham on Jan 30th. Norwich Manager, Daniel Farke is quoted as saying “This game is no more important than any other” and “We’re going to Swansea and we’re going to try our best in a difficult situation, this is our third game in six days.” I tend to disagree with this statement as Swansea are just 5 points behind Norwich going into this game with a game in hand and better rested. To me this sounds like he already has his excuses ready!
Norwich City are in a precarious position at the top of the league and while automatic promotion seems unlikely at the moment a place in the playoffs is still on the cards but this game is crucial to that goal. Given their recent form perhaps a draw would be a bonus!
Inter Milan are currently 2nd in the League and just 2 points behind AC Milan. Their opponents are 11th place Fiorentina who from the last 4 home games won 2 and drawn 2 albeit against teams who are below them in the League with the exception of Hellas Verona who are 2 places above but points have been earned from all 4 games. Inter Milan’s recent form from the last 4 league away games are 1 win 2 draws and a loss, this coming from 10th place Sampdoria with the most recent match being a goalless draw against 13th place Udinese. A 2-1 defeat in the Copa Italia 3 days ago against Juventus may also be a factor in how Inter play tonight. They certainly have the opportunity to take top spot tonight but with Fiorentina needing to keep the momentum going Inter cannot rest on their laurels in this game.
Finally the tour of Europe ends with this 3rd leg of the treble in Italy and the focus on La Liga’s 16th placed side Valladolid. They play 18th place Alaves in what to all intents and purposes a battle to climb from relegation. Valladolid have, in the last 4 away matches, come away with without defeat. Alaves on the other hand have a bit of an opposite dilemma of having a 3-match losing streak at home. This match is, even though both teams are languishing at the bottom end of La Liga, to my mind probably the banker 🙂
To Bet Or Not – Better Not!
Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win
Ladbrokes are the target treble today again. They have boosted this treble from 4.0 (3/1) to 4.5 (7/2) on the Smarkets exchange you can get 4.8 (Which is very nearly 4/1)
Rangers seem to be the banker leg of this treble and a win tonight will add a further 3 point to their 72 points. With a 100% scoring rate you would hope that there will be plenty of goals.
In the 2nd leg of this treble, 5th place Napoli take on 7th placed Atalanta in Italy’s Coppa Italia clash tonight. Recent form in the league (Serie A) from the last 8 games have seen 4 wins 1 draw and 3 Losses for Napoli but Atalanta have a slightly better record of 4 wins 3 draws and only one Loss which was quite a spanking by 6th place Lazio (1-3). Napoli’s record against similarly matched opponents (3 above and 3 below) includes a 4-0 drubbing against Roma a 1-0 loss against Inter Milan losing to Lazio 2-0 but in the last clash with Atalanta, last October, stuffing them 4-1. Napoli seems to have quite a solid record when playing at home. Atalanta, on the other hand, seems to be content with draws when playing away. As far as this Cup Match goes Napoli’s two games so far in this competition have been 3-2 v Serie B side Empoli and 4-2 against Serie A Side 16th place Spezia. Atalanta’s cup record is a bit more impressive however and consists of knocking out Serie A sides Lazio and Cagliari from the competition with 3-2 and 3-1 scorelines respectively. The Lazio game saw Atalanta have a red card AND a missed penalty! It is plain that both of these teams have ample ability of scoring goals so predicting which side will win is difficult.
The final leg of this conundrum involves the French Ligue 1 clash of Dijon v Lyon. Lyon are at present snapping at the heels of 1st place Lille and a win tonight might just boost them into top spot if Lille draw against Bordeaux. Dijon are most definitely looking at relegation this season with a home record of only 6 points from 11 games. A slightly worrying fact is that Lyon earlier in the season only managed a 1-1 draw against 18th Lorient but this seems to be just a blot on the landscape as Lyon had 6 shots on target and 3 blocked shots so Lorient just had an outstanding defence that day.
The sticking point in this bet is without doubt the Coppa Italia match and creating a new treble by replacing a Napoli win with over 2.5 goals may be prudent if you wanted to. But the aim of this blog is to pick holes in these so called boosted bets and I think I have achieved this.
Watford, Betis and Sporting Lisbon All T Win
Ladbrokes have boosted this Bet to 9.5 (17/2) from 9.0 (8/1) So Generous!!
Using Smarkets to find a Lay Price I find that the price should be closer to 11.0 (10/1) This is Ladbrokes!
Watford are hosting QPR tonight and will move into 3rd place behind Swansea with a win tonight. Form against teams in a similar position to QPR is favourable with 3-2 against Coventry and 2-0 against Rotherham. QPR on the other hand are struggling to stay clear of the relegation zone and are clearly finding this league difficult. Defeats from Barnsley 3-0 and Brentford 2-1 have proved this side have no problem conceding goals. Slightly in their favour are a 1-1 draw against league leaders Norwich who Watford beat 1-0, a goalless draw with Bournemouth however seem to suggest they have difficulty scoring! This has all the hallmarks of a low scoring game with perhaps Watford managing to scrape 3 points from it.
Betis take on Osasuna in a La Liga clash that is perhaps not the most evenly matched contest today. Betis have had convincing wins over all of the bottom third teams in the league with the exception of a 0-2 spanking by Eibar who are currently laying 15th two places above Osasuna. In complete contrast Osasuna have been beaten resoundingly by most of the upper echelon of the league with the notable win against Granada. Tey are, however, not without goalscoring talents having scored 8 goals in 10 away matches compared with Betis managing 4 more while playing at home. The stats suggest that if they get through the first 15 minutes without conceding, but something about this game niggles me. Osasuna have lost their last 9 games away and this one might just be the catalyst to break that habit.
The Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders Sporting CP (Lisbon) is the focus for the last game of this trio and they play Benfica who are currenly 3rd. A win for Lisbon will see them stay 4 points clear as Porto play Rio Ave as well tonight. It is all very tight at the top with everyone having everything to play for. Offensively both teams are pretty evenly matched with Lisbon scoring 33 goals from 15 games, 3 more than Benfica but Benfica are not as efficient in defence conceding 15 goals in as many games 6 more than Lisbon. Neither team has lost a game in the last 8 but Lisbon have only drawn 2 to Benfica’s 3. Both teams drew in their last match and if it wasn’t for the fact that Porto are also playing tonight I would say that this might also be the case again.
The verdict on this Treble to my mind is leave well alone.
Betornot 