Liverpool – Betornot

Build a Bet – Request your own after you have researched it using your own Stats Spreadsheet.

Requesting your own “build a bet” is not as daunting as first supposed they can only say no or more probably not reply at all but in the cases where they do price your bet they sometimes feature it on the platform.
Firstly you need to be armed with your own figures and an idea of what sort of markets you are going to put in to it. To this end I have the beginnings of a Workbook for the premiership which will list the following probable outcomes based on the seasons figures for each team involved.
Full Time Goals
Half Time Goals
Match Shots
Match Shots on Target
Match Fouls
Match Corners
Booking Points
BTTS

The following is a screen Shot of the stats and actual results from the 2nd game of the season Arsenal v Notts Forest

The data on the left is collated from all the games Arsenal played at home in the premiership in the season 22/23 and all the games Notts Forest played away in the season
The figures on the right are the actual stats from the game played. As you can see the predictions were right on all counts save total shots and the BTTS predictions.

The following games were played that first league week
Burnley v Manchester City – No Data

Arsenal v Nott’m Forest – As Above

Bournemouth v West Ham

Brighton v Luton – No Data

Sheffield Utd v Crystal Palace – No Data

Newcastle v Aston Villa

Newcastle Utd v Aston Villa Sat 12 Aug 23

Brentford V Tottenham

Chelsea v Liverpool

Man Utd v Wolves

As you can see from the above screenshots there was just one match which was a winner with all selections coming in.

Nott’m Forest v Sheffield Utd – No Data

Fulham v Brentford – 0-3

Liverpool v Bournemouth – 3-1

Wolves v Brighton – 1-4
Note – The actual corners leg won as the prediction was 8+ ie 8 or more but the bet still lost on the BTTS leg
( I will explain the intricates of the bets below as some bookmakers interpret the wording of bets differently to others)

Tottenham v Man Utd – 2-0

Man City v Newcastle Utd – 1-0

Aston Villa v Everton – 4-0

West Ham v Chelsea – 3-1

Crystal Palace v Arsenal – 0-1

Luton Town v Burnley – No Data
This match was postponed until 3rd Oct 23

Week 2 saw two of our bet builder bets winning but we are regularly being let down by the BTTS selection but I am getting a degree of success with this workbook when I back test
Week 3 saw another two builda bets coming in
Bournemouth v Tottenham and Newcastle v Liverpool with 2 more being let down by the BTTS leg.

What odds can you expect to get with these bets?
That depends on the bookmakers who are willing to price these bets up!
You can request these bets via the twitter (or X as it is now known) by using the individual betting sites hash tag address and I found that if you sent your request to them with all of the bookies hash tags in the message then whether or not they thought they might be in competition with each other the odds tended to come back slightly better.
The following was one such bet I requested for the Leicester City v West Brom game on 20th April

I got a quick response from Coral with favourable odds of 7/1 (8.0) I also got a message from SkyBet saying that I could build this bet on there platform but this was not strictly true as they didn’t offer some of the legs that I requested. But it is always wise to shop around.

This bet lost 🙄 on the corners leg as I requested a price on the Over 10.5 instead of 10+ market If I had worded this as “10+ Corners” it would have won!!! as there was exactly 10 corners in the match

The following hash tag addresses are for the bookmakers listed next to them
SkyBet #requestABet
Paddy Power #WhatOddsPaddy
William Hill #YourOdds
Coral #YourCall
Ladbrokes #GetAPrice
Betway #BetYourWay
Betfair #OddsOnThat
Betfred #PickYourPunt
Betvictor #PriceItUp
BoyleSports #InventABet

Lastly I will provide this work in Progess worksheet for you to backtest the entire season if you wish however the 3 promoted sides last season – Burnley, Luton and Sheffield Utd will have no data for the 22/23 season

premiership-bet-builder-workbook Download

Burnley, Liverpool and Fulham All to win

Ladbrokes have several boosted trebles out this morning and Boosted from 6.0 (5/1) to 7.0 (6/1) is burnley, Liverpool and Fulham all to win
Burnley v West Brom
Burnley’s home form is slightly better than West Brom away form. From the last 4 home games Burnley’s form reads DDLW whereas West Brom away form is LLLD.
On the 19th Oct 20 these two teams met in West Bromwich where the game ended goalless. Burnleys home games have however never ended goalless and Neither has West Broms Away games so we can expect to see at least one goal today but from who is anyones guess as proved mid week when an early goal against Man Utd forced a 1-1 goal against the in-form giant. Burnley have come back to win only once at home after their opponents scored first and that was against Aston Villa which ended 3-2. 7 out of 14 of Burnley’s Home game conceded goals came in the first half with 3 of these in the first 15 minutes.
Liverpool v Everton
Anfield see these two mersey stalwarts do battle yet again and because of the Bat Flu, Everton fans will not be at the ground to witness perhaps there first victory at the ground since 1999. It is being shown live however on sky Sports so be prepared for power cuts as 1.4million scousers all tune in at once 😊
Both teams will be out to win and Liverpool perhaps have more to prove with being such out of form in the league. LLLD form from the last 4 home league games have to be improved. An Everton victory today will see the two mersey teams level on points but with Everton having a game in hand and with Everton having conceded less goals away than Liverpool have conceded at home this promises to be a promising battle.

Fulham v Sheffield Utd
Fulham are hosting bottom side Sheffield Utd tonight and today might just be one of those rare times that BetVictor have to Pay up their £2.00 free bet when Fulham win 🤑 If we look at the average points per game (PPG) it can only signal disaster for both sides, with Fulham managing to gain just over 1/2 point per game (0.58) and Sheffield taking an average 0.33 PPG. If you compare this with 10th place Arsenal who average 1.5 PPG and top placed Man City’s 2.25 PPG you get a feel of just how doomed these two sides are. Fulham have managed 1 home win and 3 draws when playing at home whereas Sheffield have an away win and an away draw neither stats being very inspiring. Perhaps BetVictors £2.00 free bet will be safe for another week!
A safer bet than this treble would to put over 1.5 goals for each game into a treble
Burnley Playing at Home Over 1.5 goals 58%
West Brom away Over 1.5 Goals 92%
Liverpool at Home Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Everton Away Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Fulham at Home Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Sheffield Away Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Good luck with whatever you choose to do

Mohamed Salah, Raheem Sterling & Mason Mount each to have 1 or more shots on target

This one looks interesting from Paddy Power, they have boosted this bet from 4.0 (3/1) to 6.0 (5/1). As is usual with Paddy Power they have not given any pointers as to past performances with all players playing for different teams in two seperate games.

Mo Salah is currently the leading premiership goal scorer and averages 3.7 shots at goal converting that into 1.7 shots on target. Liverpool play Man City at Anfield on Sunday and should prove to be an exciting match as they will both be looking to advance their respective positions in the league. A disappointing performance by Liverpool against Brighton will galvanise the team effort. That said however Salah did have 4 attempts at goal in that match having 2 of them blocked but unfortunately none were on target. His performance against the reverse fixture at Etihad Stadium did see him have 2 attempts at goal with one being on target. This bet has ensured that we cannot wait to see the team sheets so will Salah start this game as Liverpool take on Leicester City next Saturday? I suspect that he will as it is an opportunity not to be missed as Man City play Swansea City in the F.A. Cup in 3 days and as such will Pep Guardiola rest some of his players in preparation.

Mason Mount is Chelsea’s attacking Midfielder with an average shots on target figure of 0.6. Having scored only twice this season in the premiership and having 19 1st team appearances his ability to fulfil his part of the bet seems dubious. Chelsea play Sheffield Utd Away late Sunday night and their last meeting at Stamford Bridge saw Chelsea put 4 goals past the Sheffield keeper but none were scored by Mount but he did manage a shot on target and 2 blocked shots. Chelsea also have an F.A. Cup clash next week against Barnsley. His performance against Tottenham 3 days ago was better than most with 3 shots at goal getting one on target. Going back further to the 2-0 win over Burnley, he still seemed to struggle to get on target after 4 attempts. I think that this choice of player by P.P. is the one that they hope to fail his performances against sides that are defensively weaker than Chelsea can be lack-lustre at best.

Last but by no means least is Raheem Sterling who’s’ average shots on goal are 2.4 with 1.1 shots on target match average. In the match at the Etihad Stadium he didnt score for City as Salah scored for Liverpool but he did manage a shot on target. His ability to score goals is beyond doubt as he has 7 to his credit this premiership season. A bit of a brutal schedule this week for Man City may see some substitutions in the City ranks so again perhaps a clever selection by Paddy Power.

Paddy power have no doubt put this bet up early to entice the Saturday Morning punters to perhaps punt a small stake before any team sheets are posted. Will probably risk a quid to win 5 but no more 🙂

Tottenham v Liverpool Shots on Target

Tonight Tottenham host Liverpool. and several bookies are offering boosts to their shots on target markets. Today as all the stats are in one place I will be looking at SkyBets very attractive offer of Kane and Salah to have 2 or more shots on target each at 9.0 (8/1) And Virgin Bets each team 2 or more shots on target each half!! 3.75 (11/4).
Lets start by looking at the last time these 2 teams met on the 16 Dec 2020 at Anfield. The score was 2-1 and Liverpool had most of the match dominating the possession 76% to 24% Liverpool had 11 shots on Target with Tottenham only having 2 . Salah acounted for 4 of those by Liverpool and Kane only one of the 2 by Tottenham. VirginBets offering, at this stage doesnt look too inviting, however I will dig deeper. Kanes’ average shots on target figure is 1.6 / 90 minutes. Salah does not fair much better with an average of 1.8. Both of therse players are the 2 top goal scorers this season with Salah scoring 13 and Kane sharing second spot with Son on 12 goals.

Since that meeting, and starting with Kane, He has had 2 or more shots on target in the following matches.
Leicester (A) 2
Leeds Utd (H) 2
Sheffield Utd (A) 2

Salahs’ only 2 or more shots on target game since 16 Dec is
Crystal Palace (A) 2 (only played 33 minutes)
This seems quite worrying as a dip in form is indicated.

Will probably only put one of my £5.00 free bets on this

After going through the recent form of both teams it seems that 4 shots on target for each team would probably be quite a good bet the problem arises when 2 shots have to be in both halves for both teams. I am still looking for a stats sight that split the halves so will not commit either way on the virginBet Bet