Ladbrokes continue to entice unsuspecting punters to part with their money offering attractive odds on mediocre trebles but sticking an “odds on” banker in there to sweeten it. They have called this one their “Early Kick Off” Treble even though Man City dont kick off until 16:30.
West Ham host Tottenham today in the “Early Kick off” in this North London Derby. I would imagine that confidence is high in the ladbrokes camp as they have priced West Ham at 3.0 (2/1) on a home victory. West Ham’s form figures for the last 8 games (home and away) read WWWWLWDW quite impressive until you look more closely and see who they played. Tottenham’s form is very much less impressive WDWLLLWL. 3 of these losses came at the hands of Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool.
West Ham are without Ogbonna in defence today who is out due to an ankle injury. They are currently sitting in 5th place six points in front of Tottenham who have a game in hand and two wins (Today and v Burnley next weekend would see them vying for a europa league spot. After today Tottenham’s next 3 premiership games see them up against Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace. West Ham have both Manchesters and Leeds as their next 3 Premiership clashes.
Aston Villa host Leicester City in the middle leg of this treble and an inform Leicester will be wanting to monopolise on their 3-1 victory over Liverpool last week. A win today will see them claim second place in the league and goals will be crucial to keeping Manchester Utd at bay Again Ladbrokes post odds of 3.1 for the home victory leaving Leicester City firm favourites at 2.37 to win away . Aston Villa’s form at home against teams higher in the league can only be counted from 2 matches the most recent of which against West Ham they Lost 1-3 as a plus however they did give Liverpool a spanking earlier in the season winning 7-2. Leicester on the other hand have solid form against mid-table teams. The second half may well decide this game as Aston Villa where they have conceded 64% of their goals against in contrast to Leicester’s 70% of goals scored away from home come in the second half.
Final game in this trio of trouble comes the 16:30 kick off between League leaders Man City and 9th place Arsenal. The Emirates Stadium will be silent again to fans and you cant help but wonder if this has a profound effect on the players. We all know that the home advantage is worth something but without the encouragement of thousands of devoted fans, can that advantage be canceled or even reversed. Man City do seem to be unstoppable with their last 8 games ending in victory whether they were home or away or playing top or bottom teams. They have only lost one game and drawn 3 all season when playing away. Odds of 1.5 are hard to oppose given their current form but odds of 6.5 for a home win seem excessive.
The odds for this tremble have been boosted from 13.0 (12/1) to 15.0 (14/1).
Good luck in whatever you decide.
Betornot!!
Tag Archives: Man City
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
With most of my bookmaker accounts having restricted stakes imposed on them this exercise would be impossible for me to accomplish. I started this with the Swansea v Man City game on 10th Feb 2021
Using a dutching calculator, worked out the separate stakes needed to win an equal profit from the 3 bets representing the first 30 minutes
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.3 Stake 37p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 36p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake 27p
Anyone wondering how I managed to get small stakes on I used a tool called BetAngel Basic which is a free trading software. and a very useful tool it is too
it can be downloaded from here
Post Update
Manchester City was again the match of choice to progress through to the next level
£1.66 being Dutched on the first goal between the first 30 minutes markets on Betfair Exchanage
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.7 Stake 60p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.7 Stake 60p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.2 Stake 46p
In the 23rd Minute Rodri scored from the penalty spot and I got paid ( at the end of the match) 🙂
In the calculation software I Inputted a 2% commision rate (I am on the basic package couldn’t see the point of paying 5% and not getting any benefits 😉 ) Any way I only ended up paying 1.68% of my total winnings of £1.19 (£2.39 – 60p – 60p = £1.19) This was 2p
I am now £1.37 in profit so with my starting quid £2.37 goes on the next match
Post Update 13:33 14 Feb 2020
Going to stake £2.37 on the West Brom v Man Utd Game at 2:00pm
Using the trusty dutching calculator from Oddsmonkey determine the following stakes
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 86p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 86p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake 65p
Keep everything crossed 👍🤞🤞🤞
A 2nd Minute goal from West Brom secured bet No 3 for a profit of £1.48
Add this to the £2.37 previous profit gets a total of £3.85
Mohamed Salah, Raheem Sterling & Mason Mount each to have 1 or more shots on target
This one looks interesting from Paddy Power, they have boosted this bet from 4.0 (3/1) to 6.0 (5/1). As is usual with Paddy Power they have not given any pointers as to past performances with all players playing for different teams in two seperate games.
Mo Salah is currently the leading premiership goal scorer and averages 3.7 shots at goal converting that into 1.7 shots on target. Liverpool play Man City at Anfield on Sunday and should prove to be an exciting match as they will both be looking to advance their respective positions in the league. A disappointing performance by Liverpool against Brighton will galvanise the team effort. That said however Salah did have 4 attempts at goal in that match having 2 of them blocked but unfortunately none were on target. His performance against the reverse fixture at Etihad Stadium did see him have 2 attempts at goal with one being on target. This bet has ensured that we cannot wait to see the team sheets so will Salah start this game as Liverpool take on Leicester City next Saturday? I suspect that he will as it is an opportunity not to be missed as Man City play Swansea City in the F.A. Cup in 3 days and as such will Pep Guardiola rest some of his players in preparation.
Mason Mount is Chelsea’s attacking Midfielder with an average shots on target figure of 0.6. Having scored only twice this season in the premiership and having 19 1st team appearances his ability to fulfil his part of the bet seems dubious. Chelsea play Sheffield Utd Away late Sunday night and their last meeting at Stamford Bridge saw Chelsea put 4 goals past the Sheffield keeper but none were scored by Mount but he did manage a shot on target and 2 blocked shots. Chelsea also have an F.A. Cup clash next week against Barnsley. His performance against Tottenham 3 days ago was better than most with 3 shots at goal getting one on target. Going back further to the 2-0 win over Burnley, he still seemed to struggle to get on target after 4 attempts. I think that this choice of player by P.P. is the one that they hope to fail his performances against sides that are defensively weaker than Chelsea can be lack-lustre at best.
Last but by no means least is Raheem Sterling who’s’ average shots on goal are 2.4 with 1.1 shots on target match average. In the match at the Etihad Stadium he didnt score for City as Salah scored for Liverpool but he did manage a shot on target. His ability to score goals is beyond doubt as he has 7 to his credit this premiership season. A bit of a brutal schedule this week for Man City may see some substitutions in the City ranks so again perhaps a clever selection by Paddy Power.
Paddy power have no doubt put this bet up early to entice the Saturday Morning punters to perhaps punt a small stake before any team sheets are posted. Will probably risk a quid to win 5 but no more 🙂
Betornot 