Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win

Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 10.0 (9/1) to 11.0 (10/1). Norwich are the only odds on favourite of the trio and I will start with them.
Norwich will be looking to reclaim their top spot in the championship with a win against 9th placed Stoke City. Norwich, at home, have won 2 (Bristol City 2-0 Barnsley 1-0) and drawn 2 (Middlesbrough 0-0, QPR 1-1) while skoke have a 100% draw rate in their last 4 away games suggesting a worrying pattern perhaps for Norwich City. Their defeat at the hands of Swansea last week may just have knocked their confidence a trifle. Norwich however are not without ability and have managed 12 points from 8 games while Stoke have only topped up their points total by only 6 in the same number of games. Away defeats for Stoke when playing top of the league sides do seem to have a trend with the exception of reading which they won 0-3 Norwich have some good wins under their belt when playing mid table sides winning to nil against Bristol City, Cardiff City and Barnsley. I would think that on previous form Norwich should win this but not until the last quarter of the game where they seem to score most of their goals.

Cardiff City are hosting Penalty Plagued Coventry City today and should be an interesting game. With home odds of 2.1 Ladbrokes are being the most generous bookie with most others offering 2.0 – 2.05. This does actually look a promising leg of the treble as Coventry City do seem to be prone to conceding goals through penalties with no less than 7 being awarded against the Sky Blues since September, suggesting a defensive weakness that Cardiff may take advantage of, turning the tables on their 1-0 defeat last November when these two teams last met. It does look like a win for Cardiff would put them nearer safety and into the top half of the Championship League. Coventry are far from safe, and desperation causes mistakes which they have proved they make!

As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Ladbrokes are offering 2.60 (0.15 more than William Hill as I mentioned in my previous post https://bet-or-not.com/2021/02/13/rangers-crystal-palace-and-watford-all-to-win/ ) on a home win against 3.0 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.

This treble is as always a risk as it has been boosted by the bookie (always suspect!!)
As Ladbrokes have imposed a maximum stake of £0.00 on my account I will not be taking the risk myself (Yes that’s right A BIG FAT ZERO! they live in fear of me 🙂 )


The best of Luck with whatever you decide 🙂

Norwich, Inter Milan and Valladolid All to Win

I am afraid that Ladbrokes Friday Night Treble is the subject of todays Blog again! I will grant that they have made it very attractive by boosting the odds to 13.0 (12/1) and by picking teams which are all above their opponents in their respective leagues. However all the teams in question are all playing away, and Norwich have had a particular brutal match Itinerary in the past week. Anyway lets have a look at the stats.

First up is Norwich City. As I mentioned above they have played 3 matches in the last 7 days, the 2 league matches ending in goalless draws and a 1-0 defeat in the F.A. Cup. Not too inspiring so far! Swansea on the other hand have had a relatively huge break of 6 days since their win against Rotherham on Jan 30th. Norwich Manager, Daniel Farke is quoted as saying “This game is no more important than any other” and “We’re going to Swansea and we’re going to try our best in a difficult situation, this is our third game in six days.” I tend to disagree with this statement as Swansea are just 5 points behind Norwich going into this game with a game in hand and better rested. To me this sounds like he already has his excuses ready!
Norwich City are in a precarious position at the top of the league and while automatic promotion seems unlikely at the moment a place in the playoffs is still on the cards but this game is crucial to that goal. Given their recent form perhaps a draw would be a bonus!

Inter Milan are currently 2nd in the League and just 2 points behind AC Milan. Their opponents are 11th place Fiorentina who from the last 4 home games won 2 and drawn 2 albeit against teams who are below them in the League with the exception of Hellas Verona who are 2 places above but points have been earned from all 4 games. Inter Milan’s recent form from the last 4 league away games are 1 win 2 draws and a loss, this coming from 10th place Sampdoria with the most recent match being a goalless draw against 13th place Udinese. A 2-1 defeat in the Copa Italia 3 days ago against Juventus may also be a factor in how Inter play tonight. They certainly have the opportunity to take top spot tonight but with Fiorentina needing to keep the momentum going Inter cannot rest on their laurels in this game.

Finally the tour of Europe ends with this 3rd leg of the treble in Italy and the focus on La Liga’s 16th placed side Valladolid. They play 18th place Alaves in what to all intents and purposes a battle to climb from relegation. Valladolid have, in the last 4 away matches, come away with without defeat. Alaves on the other hand have a bit of an opposite dilemma of having a 3-match losing streak at home. This match is, even though both teams are languishing at the bottom end of La Liga, to my mind probably the banker 🙂

To Bet Or Not – Better Not!

West Ham, Brighton and Norwich All to Win

Today I am looking at the SkyBet Saturday Soccer Price Boost. It is West Ham, Brighton all to win boosted from 7/2 to 5/1. West Ham are playing Doncaster at Home, Brighton are also at home playing Blackpool and Norwich are away at Barnsley. The “Helpful Information” provided by SkyBet relates to the Super 6 game and the percentage of players that have picked the above teams in their selections. These are as follows.
West Ham 98%
Brighton 90%
Norwich 81%
These figures were correct as of 19:00 21/01/2021

The following facts were also published on the day

  • West Ham have won their last 4 games in all competitions
  • Brighton will be in a confident mood after a 1-0 win over Leeds last weekend
  • Norwich have won their last 4 games in all competitions and ran out 1-0 winners over Barnsley in the league at the beginning of January


These figures were correct as of 19:00 21/01/2021

Lets see if I can see why SkyBet have chosen these particular matches

West Ham v Doncaster
West Ham, being 7th in the premiership at the moment, are plainly favourites to win this match as Doncaster Rovers are 4th in League One. But this is the F.A. Cup so a serious look at previous form is warrented . West Ham have only played one game so far in this competition, which they won, but only by 1 goal in the 83rd minute against Stockport County, a fifth tier side!
Doncaster have played 3 matches in the F.A.Cup this year all being away scoring 8 goals and conceding just 2. The victories were over United of Manchester, Carlisle United and Doncaster Rovers.

Brighton and Hove Albion v Blackpool
Newport County held Brighton to a 1-1 Draw in the 3rd round with Brighton finally winning on penalties.
Blackpool on the other hand have only conceded 2 goals in the cup this year. This was against West Bromwich Albion in the 3rd Round finally winning on penalties. The other 2 games were against Eastbourne and Harrogate which finished 0-3 and 0-4 respectively.

Barnsley v Norwich City
Both of these teams are in the Championship League albeit at opposite ends. Barnsley progressed to the 4th round by beating Tranmere Rovers 2-0.
Norwich City, being at the top of the Championship League, will be clear favourites in this contest especially dispatching Coventry City 2-0 in the last round

At the time of writing this none of the team sheets had been released. But I think that SkyBet have been very canny with their match selections. The only game that I would put any substantial amount of cash on would be Norwich to beat Barnsley.