This is my last free go until the wonder wheel spins in my favour again and while frustrating has been fun. Going for corners this time and the Question is “Will each team get 4+ Corners” in the Wolves v Sheffield Utd Game tonight The stats from Soccerstats.com seem to point towards a yes vote with Wolves averaging 6.2 corners per game at home and Sheffield Utd being awarded an average of 4.33 per game when away. I have constructed a “Bet Builder” bet to enable me to fulfil this bet and it consists of “Over 3.5 home corners” (Odds of 1.08) coupled with “Over 3.5 Away Corners” (Odds of 1.75) Giving a total odds of 1.94 Close enough to 2.0 for this bet anyway.
The voodoo is on me this week but I still have 2 more attempts before my money runs out. Todays question is “Will Reading win the match?” Odds for a home win tonight are 2.1 The Draw is 3.25 and Cardiff to win 3.6 with Paddy Power. Reading have won 3 of their last 4 home games whereas Cardiff have won just one away game from the same amount of games. When these two teams have clashed in the past they have, out of 15 games both won 4 times and drawn 7 times! With a 40% “won to Nil” rate at home and Cardiff’s drought of away goals recently (2 goals from 4 away games) this could be a good oppertunity for Reading to sneak 3 point closer to those coveted play-off places. All this having been said the stats are all pointing towards a home win given Readings present home form so will use my 4th free go on “Yes Reading will win!!
Do you ever get the feeling that the players know your bet and conspire to completely F*@# it up? Manchester City invariably score first!!!! No problem I still have 3 more free goes Mr Paddy Power!! As you can see below I have created myself a real dilemma Two questions for the struggle to stay out of the Championship relegation zone. Both Rotherham and Coventry vitally need a victory tonight so it should be a very entertaining game. Coventry might even give away another penalty if they did it would be Number 13 and Number 2 against Rotherham. I am sure the Rotherham players will have been told what buttons to press! (Might just be worth a small side bet!) Anyway onto the facts. The odds for BTTS “Yes” are 1.8 so a short wait in play for the odds to get to 2.0 10 minutes should be enough to see that happen. Of the 19 home games played by Rotherham they have only managed to keep a “clean sheet” 3 times (Bristol, Derby and Sheffield) and out of Coventry’s’ 20 away games only once! (Barnsley) Rotherham has not had a 0-0 draw this season at home and for Coventry away just one (Barnsley again) As I have mentioned above Coventry’s discipline in the penalty area is atrocious giving away 12 penalties and scoring 2 own Goals. Rotherham have conceded 6 concecutive times at home and have conceded at least 1 goal in 84% of there total home games this season. As for Coventry City, they have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 18 away matches. This game may well end 1-1, I am going to go with the “Will Both Teams Score? Yes” and if either team win “3 or more to nil” I will be very upset! I will post my bet slip when the odds reach 2.0
So Paddy Power has stopped me from doing the”Beat The Drop” game – I will try not to sink into the depths of despair, and let’s face it I still have the Wonder Wheel to keep me entertained once a day. Speaking of which I won £1.25 on it last night Not being able to do beat the drop sparked a thought that instead of sticking my considerable winnings on three-legged nag I could do the Beat the Drop backwards. Instead of starting with a thousand quid and trying to keep it I will start with 25p (This will give me 5 free goes at it) and work up through 12 questions by the end winning £1024.00 (if you halve £1000 12 times it reduces to 24.4p Question 1 is “Will Both Teams Score?” in the Sheffield Utd v Swansea Game tonight. Pre-kick-off odds for BTTS are “Yes” 1.95 and “No” 1.75 at the time of writing this. Starting with the home side, Sheffield have scored in all four of their last 4 home games, which includes a 5-0 drubbing of Cardiff! In fact, they have failed to score just 5 times in this season’s 19 games. There have been 3 0-0 draws at home this season and lost to Nil just twice. Their place 2nd from the bottom can be wholely attributed to their dreadful away form getting just 14 points from 21 away games. Their home scoring average is a shade over 1 at 1.05 Their conceding rate at home however is less than one at 0.74 goals per game On to Swansea and they have scored in all 3 of their away games against the other teams in the bottom 4 of the championship, and have actually scored in 80% of all of their away games this season. A slightly concerning fact is that they have failed to score in 2 of their lastest 4 away games but in view of the fact that losing a play-off place would be a danger should they lose tonight, these two goalless games could just be a blip and not a trend! A victory tonight would put them 4 points clear of Barnsley in fifth place thereby piling the pressure on Barnsley to try and keep Bournemouth at bay. As I am looking to place these bets at 2.0 (evens) or better to keep doubling my stake. Goal timings will be vital as many of these questions will involve in-play bets due to having to wait for the odds to get to my minimum point. This bet is no exception and whilst the odds pre-kick-off are just below 2.0 there is always the danger of an early goal to upset the movement of the market. To this end, I will now look at the probable time of the 1st goal and which team will score it. Sheffield has had two 4th minute goals this season the first being against Barnsley when they lost 1-2 and the second was last Monday against Cardiff. Generally speaking, though they tend to score their majority of goals between 31 minutes and 75 minutes 10 out of the 20 home goals were scored in this time segment). If the pre-match odds remain as they are then 5 minutes should be enough time for the odds to rise up to 2.0 With Swansea being the favorites to win this game a very early goal by Sheffield would stop the market dead and make this bet untenable. (A note to critics on this point is that my aim is to do the game backwards and still think that both teams will score but need the evens odds to do this. With “beat the drop” odds don’t matter) Swansea scoring first would not necessarily affect the odds significantly but the rise would be slower.
For those of you who follow my “Road to Cheltenham” series of bets, this will be bet No 2 this week so apologies as I will be copying a lot of this blog.
This treble has been boosted from 5.0 to 7.5! A quick look over the odds available for the individual games sees that Man Utd are 2.5 for the win! The other 2 are odds on. As Man Utd are first on the list I will have a look at them first. If Manchester Utd win they will cut Manchester City’s lead in the premiership down to 11 pts after they lost to Leeds Utd yesterday and united will still have a game in hand. This game is however sharpened at the other end as well as Tottenham at home will be looking to go level on points with Liverpool to try and get a toe in the door of the Champions League places. Manchester Utd’s recent away form is a cause for concern as they have drawn in 3 of their last 4 away games only showing some promise after their 2-0 away win at the Etihad stadium. Tottenham, on the other hand, have won their last 3 home games convincingly albeit against teams lower in the league, only allowing a single goal against Chelsea to spoil a full house! While early goal specialists Tottenham may take the lead Manchester Utd have come from behind too many times to be ignored. This game is a definite “Both Teams To Score” Candidate but recent form casts doubt on an away win as the odds reflect. The second game in this treble is the away fixture for Arsenal at Sheffield Utd. While the odds of 1.6 lean heavily in favour of Arsenal they have recently drawn against Burnley in what should have been 3 points for the North London side. But we are talking about Sheffield here and their recent form is just dreadful. In 15 games Sheffield Utd have Lost to Nil 6 times and conceding in 87% of their home games! Arsenal have failed to score in just 27% of their away games actually scoring 22 times in 15 away matches. There have been over 1.5 goals scored in 5 of Arsenals’ last 6 away games before halftime. A fact worth noting. In the final game in this boosted treble Lyon are hosting mid-table Angers and a win would lift them 3rd place if Monaco lose to Dijon (not a likely prospect) Both Lyon and Monaco are in contention for the third round Champions League qualifying round and Lyon have still to play Monaco away and Lille at home so 3 points today will be vital. Angers however are not without strengths and away victories against Lille and Lens show that they still have the ability and have not conceded any goals in their last 3 away games. I wish you luck in whatever you decide
The popularity of boosted trebles is undoubtedly one of the best money spinners for the bookies yet. Enhanced trebles and shots on target are just two “featured” bets offered by bookies which are designed to take your money. The average punter will only see the odds and perhaps 2 “bankers” and think perhaps the third team will win and willingly give the bookies their money I have just done a blog post on paddy powers friday night special (read it here) which features Fulham The conclusion to this post was that If the bookies put fulham, at home, in a “featured specially boosted just for the punter enhanced treble” And if the other teams won they would have only had to pay out twice in sixteen times. If we take the average acca at odds of 6/1 and if the average bet is £10 then you would have staked £160 but won just £120. That is some profit margin for the bookies!! With just a quick look at the bookmakers sites I found the following had all put Fulham in their “Special” bets tonight. Paddy Power Betfair Boylesports, Coral BetVictor. All I can say is I hope Fulham Win but I doubt it. Another bonza payday for the bookies!!
Fulham host Wolves tonight at 8pm and they need some points!! Fulham’s recent home form is nothing to write home about Losing the last 3 and only beating bottom side Sheffield Utd by a goal to nil. Wolverhampton have not however faired much better of late winning one drawing 2 and losing 1 in their last 4 away games. Fulham’s form against teams similarly placed around Wolverhampton’s 14th place in the league have ended in draws or losses in fact they have only won home games this season against the two teams below them.
Championship 2nd placed Watford host Reading who are chasing a play-off place. Watford at home recently have won to nil in all four of their most recent games. Conversely Reading away games have 1 win, 2 draws and a loss to nil against relegation bound Rotherham. Reading are however not without goal scoring ability and are only 1 goal behind Watfords 57 goals from 40 games This one could be close and probably back BTTS rather than a match outcome.
In The Scottish Championship, League leaders Hearts are at home to bottom side Alloa Athletic. Even though Hearts are top of the league by some considerable lead of their last 8 home and away games they have only won twice. Alloa have lost 4 of their last 8 games but have managed to score at least once in all but one of those making this game a BTTS bet more attractive than an outcome bet.
Just as a final note If bookmakers had put Fulham playing at home in their enhanced accas’ AND if the other teams in the accas won they would have only had to pay out twice out of 16 times!!! 🤔🤔🤔
No goals at all last night in the Brentford debacle means I fell yet again at Q3 Question 1 in round 3 will be the serie A game between Juventus and Napoli and the all important question is Will Juventus Win As with everything “Beat the Drop” what seems to be a two outcome conundrum this one has 3 actual results: 1. Juventus Win 2. Juventus Draw 3 . Juventus Lose With both teams level on points in the league, these two sides are of equal ability and I dont know why I picked the question 🙄 Anyway, research is king so here we go! Juventus’ recent home form has seen them win 3 games convincingly and perhaps more importantly lost their most recent home game “to nil” against Benevento. Napolis’ last 4 away games have seen them victorious against AS Roma and AC Milan (both to nil) a 3-3 draw against 9th placed Sassuolo and a 4-2 defeat 3rd placed Atalanta shows that they are not afraid of hitting the back of the net. Napoli have also gained more league points (19)than Juventus (14) over the last 8 games. Juventus have some squad problems with 2 players Suspended, 1 out injured, and 2 out with the Chinese Kung Flu. Napolis’ captain and main goalscorer is also out with a muscle strain. This should be an entertaining game and if the question was will both teams score then I think it would be a no-brainer yes. As things go I am going to go with the majority of outcomes and put my vote for “No Juventus won’t win”.
Back to the beginning we go after Sunderland gave Oxford Utd a good thumping yesterday. Man Utd v Brighton could prove to be an interesting game as far as goals are concerned. Manchester Utd, after Leicester City lost yesterday, have the chance to now go 4 points clear in 2nd place. Brighton are 16th on 32 points and just a point today will help their cause. Manchester Utd have only “won to nil” 29% of their home games this season and Brighton have “lost to nil” in just 21% of their away games suggesting a BTTS result a distinct possibility. As far as form goes, of the last 8 games Brighton have played they have gained 11 points scoring at least 1 goal in all but 2 of them. Manchester’s Home scoring rate is 79% just 8% above Brightons away scoring rate of 71%.
In summary Brighton have failed to score just 4 times when playing away and Manchester Utd only 3 times while at home. Defensively I am not entirely satisfied that Manchester Utd will be able to hold off a Brighton attack should they mount one but Manchester’s scoring ability speaks for itself.
Almost forgot all about this “freebie” and decided to have a look at the questions to see if any were jumping from the screen. In the English League 1 tonight Sunderland host Oxford Utd and there were 2 questions for this game “Will both Teams score?” and “Will Sunderland Win the Match?” As you can see from the screen shot I decided to go all in against the win. Lets take a look at the first question – without odds and assuming both teams are of equal ability. To answer Yes to both teams to score and win Both teams need to score! but if you answer No many other outcomes win. A win to nil for either team will win it or a 0-0 draw but as soon as both team score its all over If you Answer Yes to the second question Sunderland have to win! If you answer No then the match can end in a draw or an Oxford win both teams can score or not score it makes no difference. So with 2 outcomes as opposed to 1 the win/lose question would probably be the favoured yes/no. Now I come to the reasons Oxford are chasing the promotion play-off placings and only 2 points behind 6th place Gillingham with 2 games in hand. With only Gillingham and Sunderland to play this season that are above them in the table a win or draw would be a tremendous boost to both morale and placings. When playing away Oxford have gained 25 points from 19 games. Oxford have won or drawn 11 away games whilst losing 8. Sunderlands’ home record when playing matches against teams who are 5 places above and 5 places below, have won just 2 of these, Ipswich 2-1 and Doncaster 4-1. They have lost against M.K. Dons 1-2 and Portsmouth 1-3. Lincoln and Gillingham ended as draws. These being the cons for Sunderland it would not be fair to exclude their pros for winning this game. They are 3 points behind Hull City at the top with 2 games in hand. They have scored in 94% of their home games and scored first 72%.
Just a final pointer Of the last 5 meetings of these two teams 3 games ended in a draw and the 2 times Sunderland were at home the score was 1-1!
Betornot 