First up Today is William Hills Super Odds – Saturday 3pm Treble
Max stake on this is a fiver and this on its own suggests to the unsuspecting punter that the bookie is frightened that the bet will win. Whereas if you scroll down the page a bit to the enhanced Odds section bigger odds specials exist with no stake restrictions!!
Enough bookie psychology, down to facts
Rangers are flying high at the top of the Scottish Premiership and host 10th place (out of 12) Kilmarnock. The goalscoring ability of rangers at present are with out precedence, managing an average strike rate of 3 goals per match when playing at home, Kilmarnock do struggle a little as they have only managed to score 9 goals away this season. Odds for a rangers win today are 1.15 with Hills. That is quite a carrot on the end of the stick. I will skip Crystal Palace for a minute and look towards the other short priced selection.
Watford are also at home today to Bristol City, will want to collect some points today after a three match streak of only picking up 2 points with goalless draws against Coventry City and Millwall and perhaps an inexcusable defeat at the hands of QPR. 3 points today will keep them level with Reading (who are likely to beat Millwall today) in that all important promotion play-off zone. Watford’s home record while playing mid table teams such as Bristol are Mostly wins with two notable losses One against QPR as I mentioned above and the other against Cardiff City in one of the few matches where Watford failed to score at all. Bristol City on the other hand undoubtedly struggle against teams from the top of the table when away losing to Brentford (3-2), Norwich (2-0), Reading (3-1) and Bournemouth (1-0).
Watford’s defensive posture is second only to Swansea having conceded only 20 goals from 28 games played (Swansea have only conceded 15!). While their offensive record is similar to Bristols, having scored 31 goals to Bristols 29 from the same number (28) of games. Watford seem to be quick goal merchants catching their opponents off guard at the beginning of halves as they, when playing at home, scored 6 in minutes 0-15 and 7 in minutes 46-60. Bristol do have a bigger proportion of conceded goals when away in minutes 0-15 so a big possibility of a morale destroying goal by Watford would Indubitably help their cause.
As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Hill are offering 2.45 on a home win against 3.1 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.
This treble has been boosted from 3/1 (which is very generous as should you put these games into a treble on your betslip you would get 7/2!!) to 5/1
these are the facts and you can make up your own mind
Good Luck with whatever you Decide
Tag Archives: Rangers
Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win
Ladbrokes are the target treble today again. They have boosted this treble from 4.0 (3/1) to 4.5 (7/2) on the Smarkets exchange you can get 4.8 (Which is very nearly 4/1)
Rangers seem to be the banker leg of this treble and a win tonight will add a further 3 point to their 72 points. With a 100% scoring rate you would hope that there will be plenty of goals.
In the 2nd leg of this treble, 5th place Napoli take on 7th placed Atalanta in Italy’s Coppa Italia clash tonight. Recent form in the league (Serie A) from the last 8 games have seen 4 wins 1 draw and 3 Losses for Napoli but Atalanta have a slightly better record of 4 wins 3 draws and only one Loss which was quite a spanking by 6th place Lazio (1-3). Napoli’s record against similarly matched opponents (3 above and 3 below) includes a 4-0 drubbing against Roma a 1-0 loss against Inter Milan losing to Lazio 2-0 but in the last clash with Atalanta, last October, stuffing them 4-1. Napoli seems to have quite a solid record when playing at home. Atalanta, on the other hand, seems to be content with draws when playing away. As far as this Cup Match goes Napoli’s two games so far in this competition have been 3-2 v Serie B side Empoli and 4-2 against Serie A Side 16th place Spezia. Atalanta’s cup record is a bit more impressive however and consists of knocking out Serie A sides Lazio and Cagliari from the competition with 3-2 and 3-1 scorelines respectively. The Lazio game saw Atalanta have a red card AND a missed penalty! It is plain that both of these teams have ample ability of scoring goals so predicting which side will win is difficult.
The final leg of this conundrum involves the French Ligue 1 clash of Dijon v Lyon. Lyon are at present snapping at the heels of 1st place Lille and a win tonight might just boost them into top spot if Lille draw against Bordeaux. Dijon are most definitely looking at relegation this season with a home record of only 6 points from 11 games. A slightly worrying fact is that Lyon earlier in the season only managed a 1-1 draw against 18th Lorient but this seems to be just a blot on the landscape as Lyon had 6 shots on target and 3 blocked shots so Lorient just had an outstanding defence that day.
The sticking point in this bet is without doubt the Coppa Italia match and creating a new treble by replacing a Napoli win with over 2.5 goals may be prudent if you wanted to. But the aim of this blog is to pick holes in these so called boosted bets and I think I have achieved this.
