Road To Cheltenham 2022 – Page 2

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 7 Bet 1

For those of you who are just joining this series of bets I am placing 5 bets per week of £5.00 with SkyBet at odds of 2.0(evens) or better to earn a £5.00 free bet each week to use in next years Cheltenham festival. I already have £75.00 and this is just the start of week 7.
Bet No 1 this week is an In-Play bet of £5.00 at odds of 2.2 in the Sydney v Melbourne Victory game this morning. Sydney scored first in 6 minutes but there was no other score upto half time. Melbourne have had 2 shots on target so far and time is running out. With luck they will net the ball in the second half. With the exception of the Melbourne City game they have scored in the other 3 of the last 4 away games as they have scored their most away goals in the second half in the last 15 minutes of the game.

The Road to Cheltenham Week 6 Bet 4

SkyBets Soccer Saturday Price Boost is bet 4 this week with Watford Barnsley and Norwich all to win
Watford host Millwall today and have a 100% home “Win to Nil” record from the last 4 games and have accrued 53 pts from their 21 Home games. In contrast Millwall have earned themselves just 31 pts from the same number of away games. When playing Millwall at home Watford have won 4 out of the last 5 games only drawing 0-0 in November 2012.
Barnsley are at home to struggling Rotherham and will be pushing to get a play-off place and a win today will see them level on points with Bournemouth. Having won 5 of their last 8 games this shouldnt be too much trouble for this in-form side. Rotherham’s abysmal form has seen them lose 5 times from their last 8 games pretty much sealing their relegation. Barnsley have won all 3 of these two sides previous meetings in the championship league winning 4-0 in the only home fixture and conceding a total of just 1 goal in all three games.
The only away side in this treble is League winners Norwich City who are being hosted by 8th place Q.P.R. If Norwich win today it would be their 8th consecutive away match without defeat, and having scored in 81% of their 21 away games they have only lost 4 games all season 3 of them being to teams in the top 5 of the league.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 6 Bet 2

A change of tac for this bet for no other reason than a bit of variety. This does not mean however that no research has been done, I have looked at the form mainly for Manchester City in their away game Half time/Full time results focusing mainly on the number of times they have been leading at half time.
Of the 15 away games played this season Manchester City have been leading at half time 8 times and all of them have been “to Nil” this is a percentage of 53%. If we now look at the percentage of Aston Villa losing at Half time we see that it is nearly 30% and their first half goals scored average is just 35% of all home goals scored suggesting that when they do score goals at home they are usually scored in the second half. Having convinced my self that Manchester will more often than not be leading at half time I took a look at the previous meetings of these two sides and in the previous 3 games, 1 league game and 1 FA cup tie Man City were leading to nil at half time only conceding 1 goal in the 90th minute to a penalty in the league game and leading 2-1 in a league cup tie at half time which was the final score.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Freebet Week 5 Summary

Not very good this week as you are about to find out!
Bet 1 was BTTS “Yes” in the game between Brighton and Everton in which absolutely no goals were scored at all! How can the managers be blamed for poor performing players. I have always said its the players who should be sacked, just like any other job. I lost a fiver because of the players not the managers!!!
Bet 2 went the same way in the Sheffield v Swansea game where at least Swansea came out to play scoring 2, Sheffield however had just 1 shot on target the whole game! Another fiver lost!!
Bet 3 had to get better and a punt at the over 2.5 goals market in the Carlise v Crawley game and with 2 goals in the first half the omens were good – Not!!! I am not sure either team came out onto the pitch in the second half – Another fiver in Mr Skys pocket!!
Happy effing days Bet 4 was a success “Kane to have a shot on target” was a skybet boosted bet with the required odds, at least he earns his money – sort of!
The Soccer Saturday Price Boost, which is always worth a punt, actually wasn’t this week as it failed in the most direst of ways as West Ham lost to Newcastle, Swansea nearly won, and Watford didn’t score but Luton Did.
Total weekly Loss of £20.00 and when I add the total Profit from previous weeks makes it a campaign loss of £13.28. with only 1 x £5.00 free bet added to give a total of £60.00 in free bets for cheltenham next year

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 6 Bet 1

It doesn’t seem like it was 6 weeks since Cheltenham, they say time goes faster the older you get.
Tonight Leeds Host Liverpool and yes you guessed it I will be Putting a BTTS “Yes” bet on in-play. Two reasons, at the moment BTTS odds are just 1.5 so I will be watching the game and the odds until they reach 2.0 the second reason is that SkyBet is using the game to offer their “Game of Two Halves” promotion which means that if you bet £5.00 in play at odds of 1.5 or better then you get a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half, but as with all SkyBet free bets they never expire 😁.
Onto tonights bet though, Leeds Utd have scored in only two of their last home games But their average goals per game is 1.4, also only 7 of their 21 home goals have been scored in the first half making it a distinct possibility that the odds could indeed get to 2.0 as Liverpool’s first half scoring rate when they are away is even worse than Leeds’ at 28% or only 8 out of 29 away goals scored in the first half, their scoring rate per game when away however is 1.92. I will be hoping that both teams score their first goals between minutes 46 and 61. If there is an early goal then I will be taking the odds if they are 1.5 or better to secure the free bet. If the odds settle after the first goal below 1.5 then contingency plan A will kick in and a Over 3.5 bet should be at 2.0 or better and usually with early goals come more goals. The last time these two played each other the score was 4-3 and Salah had a hat-trick with two penalties.

click this image to go to skybet (I don’t get paid for this)

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 bet 5

The Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week starts at 12:30 due to the Royal Funeral taking place at Windsor this afternoon. This weeks bet is West Ham, Swansea, and Watford all to win.
Starting with the Premiership clash between Newcastle and West Ham United, West Ham are on a bit of a crusade to play in the Champions League next season and another win today will see them take 3rd place in the league above Leicester City. West Ham have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 games. Newcastle has trouble winning at home actually achieving this just 4 times this season so far. Significant defeats against other top-of-the-table sides both home and away set a trend that West Ham will want to carry on especially as earlier in the season West Ham did lose to Newcastle 0-2. The odds for West Ham to win today are 2.05 with SkyBet.
The second game on the list is the Swansea City v Wycombe Wanderers and Wycombe are in trouble! Swansea needs to win today to keep Brentford from leap-frogging them into 3rd spot from the top. Swansea’s recent form at home is not good and need a good win to bolster their morale. This will be an ideal psychological game to achieve that just as long as they don’t go into this match thinking that bottom side Wycombe have no teeth. Wycombe’s form away is dismal having won just 3 games all season.
Watford are away to Luton this lunchtime and currently lie 2nd in the Championship with just a 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough, Watford have won 7 of their last 8 games – 5 of them “to nil” Luton have only won 2 of their last 4 home games losing to both Swansea and Barnsley. In the 41 games played by Watford this season they have scored 59 goals. If you couple this with the fact that Luton have conceded a total of 46 goals in their 40 matches it seem that Watford should retain their second place lead of 7 points in the league.
This seems a fair bet and would see SkyBet paying out twice in two weeks! Never a bad thing.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 bet 3

The trouble with my job is that I am so knackered when I get home I really only have time for 1 blog post and I have been doing these Paddy Power fun bets. On the back of these I have also been using the research to put my “road to cheltenham” series of bets together ( so if you have been following the P.P. bets you will know I am doing not so good this week!)
The freebet No 3 this week corresponds to Beat the drop round 3 question 1
Two questions for the struggle to stay out of the Championship relegation zone. Both Rotherham and Coventry vitally need a victory tonight so it should be a very entertaining game. Coventry might even give away another penalty if they did it would be Number 13 and Number 2 against Rotherham. I am sure the Rotherham players will have been told what buttons to press! (Might just be worth a small side bet!)
Anyway onto the facts. The odds for BTTS “Yes” are 1.8 so a short wait in play for the odds to get to 2.0 10 minutes should be enough to see that happen.
Of the 19 home games played by Rotherham they have only managed to keep a “clean sheet” 3 times (Bristol, Derby and Sheffield) and out of Coventry’s’ 20 away games only once! (Barnsley) Rotherham has not had a 0-0 draw this season at home and for Coventry away just one (Barnsley again) As I have mentioned above Coventry’s discipline in the penalty area is atrocious giving away 12 penalties and scoring 2 own Goals.
Rotherham have conceded 6 concecutive times at home and have conceded at least 1 goal in 84% of there total home games this season. As for Coventry City, they have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 18 away matches.
This game may well end 1-1, I am going to go with the “Will Both Teams Score? Yes” and if either team win “3 or more to nil” I will be very upset!
I will post my bet slip when the odds reach 2.0

As you can see from the bet slip I only had to wait 9 minutes for the odds to get to 2.0 for all the good it did🤣

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 bet 2

With last night’s bet ending in a complete and utter waste of research time I have just done another research job on a Paddy Power “Beat the drop” question “Will both teams score?” in the Sheffield v Swansea game this evening
Starting with the home side, Sheffield have scored in all four of their last 4 home games, which includes a 5-0 drubbing of Cardiff! In fact, they have failed to score just 5 times in this season’s 19 games. There have been 3 0-0 draws at home this season and lost to Nil just twice. Their place 2nd from the bottom can be wholely attributed to their dreadful away form getting just 14 points from 21 away games. Their home scoring average is a shade over 1 at 1.05 Their conceding rate at home however is less than one at 0.74 goals per game
On to Swansea and they have scored in all 3 of their away games against the other teams in the bottom 4 of the championship, and have actually scored in 80% of all of their away games this season. A slightly concerning fact is that they have failed to score in 2 of their lastest 4 away games but in view of the fact that losing a play-off place would be a danger should they lose tonight, these two goalless games could just be a blip and not a trend!
A victory tonight would put them 4 points clear of Barnsley in fifth place thereby piling the pressure on Barnsley to try and keep Bournemouth at bay.
As I am looking to place these bets at 2.0 (evens) or better to keep doubling my stake. Goal timings will be vital as many of these questions will involve in-play bets due to having to wait for the odds to get to my minimum point. This bet is no exception and whilst the odds pre-kick-off are just below 2.0 there is always the danger of an early goal to upset the movement of the market. To this end, I will now look at the probable time of the 1st goal and which team will score it. Sheffield has had two 4th minute goals this season the first being against Barnsley when they lost 1-2 and the second was last Monday against Cardiff. Generally speaking, though they tend to score their majority of goals between 31 minutes and 75 minutes 10 out of the 20 home goals were scored in this time segment). If the pre-match odds remain as they are then 5 minutes should be enough time for the odds to rise up to 2.0 With Swansea being the favorites to win this game a very early goal by Sheffield would stop the market dead and make this bet untenable. (A note to critics on this point is that my aim is to do the game backwards and still think that both teams will score but need the evens odds to do this. With “beat the drop” odds don’t matter)
Swansea scoring first would not necessarily affect the odds significantly but the rise would be slower.

For those of you who follow my “Beat The Drop in Reverse” series of bets, this will be bet No 1 this week so apologies as I will be copying a lot of this blog.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 Bet 1

Tonight sees 16th place Brighton hosting 8th place Everton. Brighton are far from safe with 3 of the top 5 league teams still to play and they will be looking to gain as many points as possible. They are not without the ability to score at home doing so against Man Utd, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. They have in fact scored at home in all but 4 games this season they have also failed to score in the same number of away games. Everton are a strong away side only losing or drawing in 5 of their 14 away games and failing to score just twice. The favourite correct score odds with SkyBet are 6.0 (5/1) for a 1-1 draw which is a good indication of what the bookies think of both teams scoring. Like last week this will have to be an in-play bet when the Odds reach the required 2.0 qualifying level. The pre match odds are presently 1.73 so a few minutes of play will be needed for it to reach 2.0. For this to happen there needs to be no goals scored in at least the first 10-15 minutes. Brightons’ earliest home goal in the premiership this season was 10 minutes against Leicester where they held the lead until the 62nd minute when leicester equalised. Their earliest conceded goal without scoring first came in the 23rd minute against Chelsea from a penalty. Everton have scored in the 1st and 3rd minutes the latter in that memorable derby where they won at Anfield for the first time in years (I forget how many 🤣) but their average is 45 minutes. This should give me plenty of time to wait for the odds and the beauty of a bet like this is that if there is an early goal which holds the odds too low I can just walk away and wait for the next oppertunity

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Freebet Week 4 Summary

Bet 1 started well with a BTTS bet on the Middlesbrough v Watford game which I backed In-Play to achieve the required qualifying odds of 2.0 The game ended 1-1 making me £5.00 up on the week. Bet No 2 was the same in the Champions League 1st leg clash between Manchester City and Dortmund which was another In-Play bet to gain the required odds. £10 up so far going into bet No 3 which incedentaly was the last to be settled as it was a £5.00 “Hotshot” bet on the “Masters” to try and earn some more free bets for each birdie or better Justin Thomas scored on the first round. This bet lost so back down to £5.00 profit on the week
Bet 4 was an Aintree bet where I backed My Drogo @ 2.63 this won lifting my weekly profit up to £13.13.
Bet 5 was the SkyBet Soccer Saturday Price Boost which won at 6.0 taking my weekly profit up to a Total of £38.13
That was my weekly free bet sorted out but there were other oppertunities to get free bets on top of this and as I have said earlier Bet 3 earned me £2.00 free bets.
SkyBet credited my account for being a loyal racing customer with a further £2.00 free bets and I got another £6.00 playing the slots Which I confess to losing £20.00
Lastly Yesterday there was another “Game of two halves” match where I again backed BTTS in-play in the Tottenham v Man Utd game winning a further £3.33 but lost £3.50 on a fun bet on the final day of the golf.
My Total Loss from last week stood at £11.24
My total Profit this week is £17.96
So far weeks 2 – 4 have seen a profit of £6.72 and £55.00 in free bets for next years Cheltenham.