Backing The Most Tipped Horses (16 Aug)

Yesterday’s Selections were a bit of a mixed Bag odds wise and with 2 drifting and 2 getting shorter I was glad I put my bets on early. The first one away was Bloomington Bride which drifted out to 1.91 from 1.44 but alas was beaten also Boltaway didn’t come first either and held its odds of 2.38 to no avail. The third selection was 3/1 (4.00) Sky Blue Thinking which not only had a rule 4 10p reduction but also started the race at odds of 2.37 and favourite to win – which it did – just but a win is a win and after my 10p was thieved from me I was left with the equivalent odds of 3.70. Cant complain at that!
No four yesterday was Alpha Cru which also won and by 3.5 lengths. Backing it at 1.83 in the morning at 1.83 saw it drift out to 2.4 by post time and an extra 57p thank you very much which didnt quite make up for the 2 that lost but cancelled out the Rule 4 deduction imposed upon Sky Blue Thinking.
Todays 4 most tipped selections are as follows
1. Smooth Spirit 14:40 Lingfield backed at 2.75 at 09:04am
2. Nadein 16:05 Catterick backed at 1.25 at 9:05am
3. Rose Barton 17:25 Windsorbacked at 2.38 at 9:06am
4. Sir Tivo 20:05 Bangor-on-Dee backed at 2.75 at 9:07am

Backing the Most Tipped horses of the day – A Study!!

Is the old adage “safety in numbers” true to making bets? In this blog I will disclose my findings on different ways that I have approached betting on the most tipped horses of the day. Limited to just 4 bets a day these horses are chosen for me by horseracing.net as their Paddy Power advertising banner shows these horses and is a useful “Cut-out” tool as there could be multiple selections with the most tips and then you need to ask is where do I stop! For anyone reading this and wish to find these selections they can be found below all the “New Account” Ads on any main horseracing.net page

You can bet directly from the site I suppose

I have approached this from several betting angles and with the use of spreadsheets have posted my findings so far this Month (AUG 21)
The first and easiest bets are the £1.00 level stakes and I confess to adopting this staking plan as I work nights and to stay awake for the races is not an option. I can get my bets on with SkyBet after 9am to take advantage of any B.O.G. available. It also can get you a couple of better priced horses if the odds come screaming in. A couple of rule 4 occurrence’s have reduced the payout significantly for that race but when looking at the starting prices of some selections and the early price I got in the morning more than makes up for these reductions.
Any way onto my findings after 13 days
The following staking plans are analysed below

10% of a Starting bank of £10.00 (Current balance is £52.29)
£1.00 Level Stakes (current Balance £20.93)
Double Stake after a Win (current balance -£57.84)
£2.00 stake on any selection at odds over 2.0 (current balance £35.32)
Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price ( current balance – £46.70)

1. 10% stakes
The idea behind this plan is to bolster any winning streaks by adding to the stakes used after each win. This is currently out-performing the other methods hands down as the “strike-rate” is quite high but has the drawback of not being a “fire and forget” system as you need to be aware of each selections result as it happens. To use this system is simple enough – you simply stake 10% of your bank for instance the first bet from a £10.00 bank would be £1.00 If the bet wins any profit is added to the bank and the next bet would be 10% of the new balance e.g. an even money win would stand the bank at £11.00 the next bet would then be £1.10.
After a dismal start on the 1 Aug where all 4 lost my theoretical bank stood at £6.56 but things started to improve with its highest point being £88.55 on the 12 August! it is currently at £52.29 after a losing streak of 5

2. £1.00 Level Stakes
As it says on the Tin this is simply staking £1.00 on each selection regardless of odds or whether the previous selection won or lost. Again a disatrous start of 4 losers gave me a loss of £4.00 but this too started to improve with a current profit of £20.93 with the highest profit point of £25.93 on the 12 August. As you can see a losing streak of 5 has only reduced the profit by £5.00 whereas in the 10% system the profit reduction is £36.21.

3. Double Stake after a win
This one can get scary as a winning streak of 10 (which happened between 5th Aug and the 7th Aug) puts the next stake of £1024.00 onto the 11th runner, In this case a Non Runner and the 12th selection lost plunging a very healthy bank of £959.78 into a -£64.22 and just a quid going onto the next selection. Not a system for the faint hearted but some sensible rules about pulling out after a win steak of 4 and starting with a quid on the 5th selection would have seen a healthier balance and I will figure out the excel formula for this when I have the time. This system can again only be implemented if you are able to see all the selections results as they happen.

4. £2.00 level stakes on selections over 2.0 odds
I am looking at this system purely from the aspect of staking enough money on SkyBet to earn my £5.00 free bet for my Cheltenham campaign in March next year. Just betting £1.00 on each selection left me £8.00 short in the first week. With hindsight however £2.00 level stakes would see a bank of £41.86 (double the £1.00 level stake system) and an easy £5.00 free bet addition to my growing Cheltenham pot.

4. Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price
You have to be cynical in all studies and this system lays all selections to lose and while the first day was particularly successful as they all lost the decline has been steadily progressive. A high strike rate of 63% and with just 45% of runners starting at odds on laying these horses is just not an option.

Below you will find the spreadsheet available to download
It lists all the runners and their S.P.s and BSPs




The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 7 Bet 5

The Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week is Bournemouth, Chelsea, and Leeds all to win Boosted from 7.0 to 10.0
The first match on the treble is a Championship clash between Hosts Bottom of the league Wycombe Wanderers and 4th placed Bournemouth. In form, Bournemouth have won all of their last 4 away games and 7 of their last league games only losing to Brentford at home last week. With Swansea and Barnsley both on level points with Bournemouth, Bournemouth need to win today to keep the others from stealing that all-important play-off spot. Wycombe have shown that even though they are flat bottom of the league they still have the ability when playing teams at the top of the league drawing against both Swansea and Watford at home. Generally, though they lose and by 2 goals when they do. The last time these two teams met Bournemouth won 1-0, and they have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 away matches. Bournemouth need to win!

Chelsea are hosting Fulham this evening and have a mixed bag of results at home having goalless draws against Manchester Utd and Brighton and a dreadful drubbing of 2-5 by West Bromwich Albion. with their only victory in the last 4 home games being against Everton which ended 2-0. Although I have said that if bookmakers put Fulham into a boosted Acca you should avoid it like the Chinese Bat Flu they have come out and Drawn against Arsenal and Crystal Palace, beaten Liverpool 0-1 and lost just one against Aston Villa in their last 4 away games. That said, Fulham have never beaten Chelsea and their last 2 trips to Stamford Bridge have both ended 2-0. Chelsea are hanging onto that last Champions League 4th place spot precariously, but aided by Leicester’s 1-1 draw against Southampton last night. A win this evening would still see them in 4th place but keeping that all-important 3 point buffer between them and West Ham. Chelsea Need To Win!

Leeds Utd travel to Brighton today in a game which is of vital importance to the hosts. Only 7 points separate Brighton from Fulham and a win for Brighton today would see them a little closer to safety. Leeds Utd have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away games and conceding goals in all of them. Their form over the last 8 games played has seen them win just 3 times drawn 3 times (twice Goalless) and losing to West Ham and Villa. Brighton’s Home record doesn’t read much better winning one drawing goalless against Everton and losing against Leicester and Crystal Palace. They have only beaten Southampton and Newcastle in their last 8 league games
As with every Soccer Saturday Price Boost, SkyBet offer 3 outcomes and this week they have offered this last game as the alternate options
Option 1
Bournemouth, Chelsea & Leeds all to win (was 6/1) Boosted to 9/1
Option 2
Bournemouth & Chelsea to win & Brighton to draw with Leeds (was 6/1) Boosted to 9/1
Option 3
Bournemouth, Chelsea & Brighton all to win (was 4/1) Boosted to 6/1
My final £5.00 goes on
Option 1 £2.00
Option 2 £2.00
Option 3 £1.00


The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 7 Bet 4

Australian A League has become a bit of an obsession of late and today Melbourne City Hosted Newcastle United Jets. 17 minutes into the game and the odds finally reached 2.0 and I stuck my fiver on it. Newcastle, again, scored at the wrong end and 2 more Melbourne goals and 87 minutes Newcastle decided it was time to score in the right goal
A win is a win 😁

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 7 Bet 3

Punchestown day 2 and SkyBet are again paying 7 places and have boosted “The Great White” to 2.1 to place
It is currently 2nd Fav at 7.5 to win
Yesterdays similar bet won so why not try it again. To quote Sporting Life ” THE GREAT WHITE was beaten a long way behind Low Lie The Fields here in January but it was a different matter at Limerick last week where he was impressive. He’s up 11lb but still on a lowly mark and a quick double beckons.”

 

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 7 Bet 2

The Punchestown Festival gets underway today and as SkyBet seem to want to give money away on their boosted bets of late I thought it rude not to take them up on one of their boosts in the 15:40 where they are paying out on 7 places instead of 4 if there are 18 or more runners. The boost is Scholastic placing at odds of 2.0 This is entirely an impulse bet and can’t do any worse than that damned Melbourne team not even being able to score in the second half earlier!!!

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Freebet Week 6 Summary

Week 6 was infinitely better than week 5 with a clean sheet as far as the qualifying bets go
Bet 1 Was Leeds v Liverpool on Monday 19th April and was BTTS “Yes” placed In-Play 22 minutes into the game at odds of 2.0 – Won £5.00
Bet 2 was a “Half Time/ Full Time” Bet in the Aston Villa v Man City game which again was placed at 2.0 on “Away/Away” which also won £5.00
Bet 3 was a SkyBet Special where they boosted Mo Salah to have 1+ shots on Target from 1/8 to Evens) – he scored in 3 minutes flat – Another fiver>
Bet 4 was tense. The Soccer Saturday Price Boost featured Watford, Barnsley, and Norwich all to win boosted from 5.0 to 7.0. Barnsley held on after scoring after 2 minutes right up until 98th minute where Rotherham had an unprecedented 16 shots of which 7 were on target. Never has my finger hovered over the cash out button as much 😰😱 My nerve however held and paid off with a £30.00 Profit
Bet 5 went back to good old nearly reliable BTTS “Yes” in the Reading v Swansea game getting 11/10 (2.1) making me another £5.50
This gave me a total Profit on the week as £50.50
On Sunday I stuck £5.00 on to get a matched free bet on the Man City v Spurs game just before half time at odds of 4.0 (3/1) and as everyone knows Tottenham failed to turn up to the game – £5.00 loss but an extra £5.00 free bet
Bet 1 it should be noted was a “Game of two halves” where SkyBet will give a £5.00 fre bet if you bet £5.00 cash in-play
So in summary £15.00 in free bets added this week and a Total profit of £45.50 for the week making a campaign total profit of £32.22 when I take previous losses into account.