For those of you who are just joining this series of bets I am placing 5 bets per week of £5.00 with SkyBet at odds of 2.0(evens) or better to earn a £5.00 free bet each week to use in next years Cheltenham festival. I already have £75.00 and this is just the start of week 7. Bet No 1 this week is an In-Play bet of £5.00 at odds of 2.2 in the Sydney v Melbourne Victory game this morning. Sydney scored first in 6 minutes but there was no other score upto half time. Melbourne have had 2 shots on target so far and time is running out. With luck they will net the ball in the second half. With the exception of the Melbourne City game they have scored in the other 3 of the last 4 away games as they have scored their most away goals in the second half in the last 15 minutes of the game.
SkyBets Soccer Saturday Price Boost is bet 4 this week with Watford Barnsley and Norwich all to win Watford host Millwall today and have a 100% home “Win to Nil” record from the last 4 games and have accrued 53 pts from their 21 Home games. In contrast Millwall have earned themselves just 31 pts from the same number of away games. When playing Millwall at home Watford have won 4 out of the last 5 games only drawing 0-0 in November 2012. Barnsley are at home to struggling Rotherham and will be pushing to get a play-off place and a win today will see them level on points with Bournemouth. Having won 5 of their last 8 games this shouldnt be too much trouble for this in-form side. Rotherham’s abysmal form has seen them lose 5 times from their last 8 games pretty much sealing their relegation. Barnsley have won all 3 of these two sides previous meetings in the championship league winning 4-0 in the only home fixture and conceding a total of just 1 goal in all three games. The only away side in this treble is League winners Norwich City who are being hosted by 8th place Q.P.R. If Norwich win today it would be their 8th consecutive away match without defeat, and having scored in 81% of their 21 away games they have only lost 4 games all season 3 of them being to teams in the top 5 of the league.
It doesn’t seem like it was 6 weeks since Cheltenham, they say time goes faster the older you get. Tonight Leeds Host Liverpool and yes you guessed it I will be Putting a BTTS “Yes” bet on in-play. Two reasons, at the moment BTTS odds are just 1.5 so I will be watching the game and the odds until they reach 2.0 the second reason is that SkyBet is using the game to offer their “Game of Two Halves” promotion which means that if you bet £5.00 in play at odds of 1.5 or better then you get a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half, but as with all SkyBet free bets they never expire 😁. Onto tonights bet though, Leeds Utd have scored in only two of their last home games But their average goals per game is 1.4, also only 7 of their 21 home goals have been scored in the first half making it a distinct possibility that the odds could indeed get to 2.0 as Liverpool’s first half scoring rate when they are away is even worse than Leeds’ at 28% or only 8 out of 29 away goals scored in the first half, their scoring rate per game when away however is 1.92. I will be hoping that both teams score their first goals between minutes 46 and 61. If there is an early goal then I will be taking the odds if they are 1.5 or better to secure the free bet. If the odds settle after the first goal below 1.5 then contingency plan A will kick in and a Over 3.5 bet should be at 2.0 or better and usually with early goals come more goals. The last time these two played each other the score was 4-3 and Salah had a hat-trick with two penalties.
click this image to go to skybet (I don’t get paid for this)
The trouble with my job is that I am so knackered when I get home I really only have time for 1 blog post and I have been doing these Paddy Power fun bets. On the back of these I have also been using the research to put my “road to cheltenham” series of bets together ( so if you have been following the P.P. bets you will know I am doing not so good this week!) The freebet No 3 this week corresponds to Beat the drop round 3 question 1 Two questions for the struggle to stay out of the Championship relegation zone. Both Rotherham and Coventry vitally need a victory tonight so it should be a very entertaining game. Coventry might even give away another penalty if they did it would be Number 13 and Number 2 against Rotherham. I am sure the Rotherham players will have been told what buttons to press! (Might just be worth a small side bet!) Anyway onto the facts. The odds for BTTS “Yes” are 1.8 so a short wait in play for the odds to get to 2.0 10 minutes should be enough to see that happen. Of the 19 home games played by Rotherham they have only managed to keep a “clean sheet” 3 times (Bristol, Derby and Sheffield) and out of Coventry’s’ 20 away games only once! (Barnsley) Rotherham has not had a 0-0 draw this season at home and for Coventry away just one (Barnsley again) As I have mentioned above Coventry’s discipline in the penalty area is atrocious giving away 12 penalties and scoring 2 own Goals. Rotherham have conceded 6 concecutive times at home and have conceded at least 1 goal in 84% of there total home games this season. As for Coventry City, they have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 18 away matches. This game may well end 1-1, I am going to go with the “Will Both Teams Score? Yes” and if either team win “3 or more to nil” I will be very upset! I will post my bet slip when the odds reach 2.0
As you can see from the bet slip I only had to wait 9 minutes for the odds to get to 2.0 for all the good it did🤣
Tonight sees 16th place Brighton hosting 8th place Everton. Brighton are far from safe with 3 of the top 5 league teams still to play and they will be looking to gain as many points as possible. They are not without the ability to score at home doing so against Man Utd, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. They have in fact scored at home in all but 4 games this season they have also failed to score in the same number of away games. Everton are a strong away side only losing or drawing in 5 of their 14 away games and failing to score just twice. The favourite correct score odds with SkyBet are 6.0 (5/1) for a 1-1 draw which is a good indication of what the bookies think of both teams scoring. Like last week this will have to be an in-play bet when the Odds reach the required 2.0 qualifying level. The pre match odds are presently 1.73 so a few minutes of play will be needed for it to reach 2.0. For this to happen there needs to be no goals scored in at least the first 10-15 minutes. Brightons’ earliest home goal in the premiership this season was 10 minutes against Leicester where they held the lead until the 62nd minute when leicester equalised. Their earliest conceded goal without scoring first came in the 23rd minute against Chelsea from a penalty. Everton have scored in the 1st and 3rd minutes the latter in that memorable derby where they won at Anfield for the first time in years (I forget how many 🤣) but their average is 45 minutes. This should give me plenty of time to wait for the odds and the beauty of a bet like this is that if there is an early goal which holds the odds too low I can just walk away and wait for the next oppertunity
SkyBet Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week features the Liverpool, Bournemouth and Norwich games all starting at 3pm Liverpool host Aston Villa and is a crucial game for Liverpool for a Champions League place coming off the back of 4 consecutive defeats at home Klopps team will be looking to towards ending this drought. With only teams below them in the league left to play at home, winning today would create an ideal springboard to achieve that aim. Liverpool’s home goals average is 1.47 giving a slight statistical advantage over Aston Villas away goal average of 1.27. The Villa do not have a good away record playing teams higher in the league winning only one against leicester City. Liverpool will want to forget the humiliating defeat in the previous meeting with Villa and set the record straight, 7-2 is a very good incentive. I think that Liverpools ability is coming back to the fore now as have hit form in the Premier League, beating Arsenal 3-0 and Wolves 1-0 in their last 2 matches away.
The next game in the troublesome trio is Bournemouth v Coventry City. My wifes’ family all support Coventry as do some of the guys at work and this analysis may seem a bit disloyal to them but I look at stats and Coventry Citys’ away record is something dreadful only winning 2 of their away games this season and “Losing to Nil” 8 times form the 19 games they travelled. Bournemouth on the other hand have picked up 16 points from their last 8 games and are on a charge for those play-off places that are so tantalisingly close. We are getting towards the end of the season where nearly every kick of the ball counts and Coventry City just don’t play well away from home.
Lastly is the Derby County v Norwich City where Norwich could clinch the title today if they win and and both Brentford and Swansea fail to win. Derby have picked up just 5 points from their last 8 games as opposed to Norwich City gaining 4 times that figure. Offensively Norwich City have scored 64 goas from the 40 games this season , concedeing just 28 whereas Derby have scored just 30 from the same number of games. Skybet have offered, as always, a cop out for this game, giving alternatives in the guise of Liverpool, Bournemouth to win and Derby to Draw (12/1) and Liverpool, Bournemouth and Derby to win (16/1).
The Masters starts today and SkyBet are offering the following promotion “Place a £5+ bet on the ‘Hotshots’ market at The Masters and get a £1 free bet for every birdie or better your player makes during the first round of the tournament” By “hotshots” they mean enhanced singles only and each player has been boosted by at least a point. Professional Golf is something I know absolutely Nothing about. So what if its a sport somebody will have compiled stats. There are a few stats sites for golf and most of them want paying for their work but The PGA tour site seems to have the basics and is completely and utterly free and completely and utterly confusing ! I will share with you the information Sky Bet gives:
Round 1 2020 was a record low score at the Masters
D.Johnson: 6 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2020
J.Thomas: 7 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2020
B.Dechambeau: 9 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2019
Justin Thomas is my pick for this years Masters with SkyBet because his round 1 scoring average (which is what we are looking for) after playing 18 first rounds is 69.44. His 7 Birdies/Eagles last November has conviced me that my fiver is as good on him as anyone. How can anyone predict who will win a game of golf????
SkyBet are offering the “Game of 2 halves” promotion tonight in the Champions League fixture between Man City and Dortmund tonight. This means that if you place a £5.00 in-play bet in the first half you will be credited with a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half. This free bet however has the same conditions as all their other free bets so can be saved. This is the first leg of the quarter finals and as such Dortmund being the away side will be all out to score as many away goals as possible tonight to gain that all important away goal advantage. They have scored at least one goal in every one of their Champions League games so far averaging 2.13 per match The current odds at Skybet for BTTS (Yes) is 2.0 but I need to place this in-play and may have to wait if skybet reduce the odds just before kick off A concerning stat that may put you off following my lead on this is Manchester City have Won to Nil in this competition in 75% of their games and in all but one of their home games. This however is countered by Dortmund having never lost to nil in this competition. A score draw tonight would give goals advantage in the second leg next week to Dortmund. Stay close to find out how I do
Start of the new week brings a new multitude of opportunities to try and end up in profit as well as gaining another £5.00 free bet towards next years Cheltenham festival. Earlier today I blogged about doing research for Paddy Powers “Beat the Drop” promotion and came across something which had me thinking about my first bet this week. Middlesbrough are hosting Watford as I write this and the question Paddy Power posed was “will both teams score?” Research suggested that they probably would but the odds to qualify for a free bet are 2.0 and the odds offered by SkyBet were 1.83 If we look at the soccerstats page for the game on the right hand side near the bottom is a chart names Goal times and below that is another chart of similar composition showing goal times relevent to home and away. The odds while in play for BTTS behave in a consistent way with the “Yes” odds steadily increasing and “No” odds decreasing. Using the charts on soccerstats I determined that the probability of a goal being scored before the odds rose to 2.0 were minimal and in fact there was a probability that all would be well until about 25 – 30 mins. It only took about 5 minutes for the odds to get to 2.0 and I snapped my bet on. – My phone has just tinged and lo and behold Watford have just scored in the 32nd Minute. Just hoping that the most likely time for Middlesbrough to score will be in the last 3rd of the second Half but anytime between now and the final whistle will do 😁🤞
The week started badly with a trip to Wolverhampton and Lovely Breeze in the 18:30 which was boosted to 2.88. Managing only 6th place this left me £5.00 down. Not to be deterred I again went racing on Tuesday and split my fiver into an E/W bet on Finisk River in the 14:35 at Newcastle where a 4th place was close but no cigar forthcoming! £10.00 Down. Staying in the north of England for Wednesdays bet I played what I thought was a in-play blinder backing over 2.5 goals 7 minutes into the Carlisle v Crawley match. With the game 2-0 at half time I began to count my winnings only for all hopes to be dashed as yellow cards came out instead of goals going in!! £15.00 down – this is getting depressing!!! Bet 4 had to be a wembley affair and after careful planning nearly missed my opportunity as I only just got my Over 2.5 Goals bet on 1 minute before Kane scored from the spot. With 2 more goals being scored earned me a £6.88 profit bringing my total loss upto £8.12. My last bet of the week plunged me more into despair as Absolutely No Goals were scored in the first half of the Leicester v Man City game making my Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half bet a loser. Total Loss for the week is £13.12 with my Total loss for weeks 2-3 £11.24 On the Brightside though I will have £30 in free bets for Next years Cheltenham when this weeks bet is credited on Monday.
Betornot 