Researching bookies boosted bets. Are they really value or just a way of getting you to part with your money
Todays bet goes to an E/W hopeful in the shape of Finisk River in the 14:35 at Newcastle over 2 1/2 miles in a Handicap Hurdle. With a 75% place rate and whilst having come last of 5 last time out over 2m on heavy ground, has won twice at Cartmel this season and the Good going at Newcastle should suit.
Bit late in the day today but I have been busy preparing the top of my garden for a new deck and as a consequence haven’t been able to research any football bets today. The start of the new flat racing season began officially this weekend and with pretty unpredictable football games happening this week I have had a look at Wolverhamton this evening and a boosted favourite in the 18:50 has taken my eye.
Lovely Breeze has been tipped by 4 tipsters with the racing post. Last 3 outings have produced 2 placings and a win. Timeforms forcast of a strong pace shouldn’t hamper her much as she likes to be prominent in the running.
This will be my first fiver on this week for my next free bet. the boosted odds at the time of placing were 2.88 so should have a bit to play with though the week.
A couple of ups and downs this week and a lucky 2nd place saw a slight profit this week in my quest for a £5.00 free bet
Bet 1 was struck on Monday with an over 2.5 goals punt on a game that should have yielded about 4 which left me £5.00 down.
Bet 1 Blog here
Bet 2 on Tuesday was an exact opposite of Under 2.5 goals which had me in palpitations as France scored an own goal but ended well with £5.00 up and even over all.
Bet 2 Blog Here
Bet 3 took a trip to the races and tried to take advantage of the skybet offer of cashback if 2nd or 3rd Goodnight Charlie was pipped at the post into 2nd which after cash back still left me Even over the week.
Bet 3 Blog Here
Bet 4 This week went back to football and the Castellon v Espanyol game and an over 2.5 goals bet which won giving £6.88 Profit and the same over the week
Bet 4 Blog Here
Bet 5 each week will be the Soccer Saturday Price Boost which of course lost leaving me in profit over the week of £1.88 and a £5.00 Free Bet
Bet 5 Blog Here
Follow me on twitter or facebook of just follow my blog each day to find out my fortunes this year.
With only £5.00 left to wager to get my next free bet, SkyBet’s Soccer Saturday Price Boost (As always on a Saturday) jumped to the fore on my computer sceen this morning offering a boosted treble of the top 3 sides in league one to win from 4/1 to 6/1. Any treble of 4/1 or less is worth looking at and as I had just analyzed Ladbrokes Saturday Treble (Read it here) and it contained two of the selections in this treble two-thirds of the research was already done. My apologies to anyone who has already read the Ladbrokes dissection as I am simply copying what I blogged earlier for the Sunderland and Peterborough games.
Sunderland are currently 3rd in the league with 2 games in hand to league leaders Hull and one game in hand to second place Peterborough. Form from the last 8 games suggest that Sunderland are on fire gaining a total of 20 points from these games. Bristol Rovers are hosting this match and Sunderlands form from the last 4 aways put 10 points on the board. Bristol need a win today just to keep from swirling into the relegation zone. This does not look likely as they have lost over half (56%) of their home games, 2 of them to the top two sides in the league by a 2 goal margin in both games. In the 5 times that Sunderland and Bristol have played Sunderland has won 3 of those matches. Their last game ended 1-1 last September.
League leaders Hull are at home to Gillingham who are looking for a playoff spot. Hull needs to win today to fend off both Peterborough and Sunderland’s envious eyes on that automatic promotion spot. Gillingham’s form against the top 5 teams has only ended in victory once and that was against Lincoln who after last night’s performance against Oxford is no surprise. (Read last night’s blog). Hull City’s goal-scoring ability is second to none this season with 62 balls hitting the back of the net from the 37 games played, Gillingham has allowed 49 goals past them in the same number of games. Defensively, at home, Hull has conceded just 9 goals this season whilst scoring 21.
With a game in hand over Hull at the top 3 points separate them so this is an ideal opportunity for Peterborough. Their home form record has seen them accrue 41 points from 17 games Having only lost 2 home games all season once against Hull and once against Blackpool. Peterborough have 58 goals from 36 games while only conceding 37. Accrington on the other hand have scored in 82% of their away games and will prove challenging opponents for Peterborough but the likelihood is, I think, that Peterborough will end the game as victors.
I am back to football today and after analysing Ladbrokes friday night boosted treble unearthed a likely candidate for my 4th bet this week. Espanyol are away to Castellon tonight in a game that is crucial to both teams. A win for Espanyol would put them level on points with top team Mallorca who they beat when away and have yet to play them at home and at the other end of the league Castellon need points desperately to get themselves of the relegation precipice. Espanyol are expected to win and probably will but Castellon have scored at home against the 3 top teams they played. A 1-2 scoreline is entirely possible but I am playing safeish and backing over 2.5 goals at 2.38.
A change in tack 😜 for this bet means we head off to Chepstow for the 14:07 Easter Titles at Oliversbookshop.co.uk Handicap Chase. I received a tip last night for Goodnight Charlie from one of the lads in Smithfield Market so when I got home this morning had a look at its recent form and its last 3 outings were at Warwick over progressivly longer distances with the last one over 3m 5f where it placed on good to soft ground. Todays race is over a still slightly longer 3m 6f 130yds with a good going and good to soft in places. This horse has only run on good or good to soft ground 16 times Winning 3 times and placing 5 times. This race is the furthest she has raced and after starting at 12/1 in her last race a forcast S.P. today of 4/1 you could be excused for thinking at least a place today. I also have the added bonus that should she not win but place 2nd or 3rd then @SkyBet will give me my stake back.
World Cup Qualifiers begin tonight and France host Ukraine and with no stats so far this is a difficult game to decipher. Yet again the 2.5 goals market has a certain appeal with Under 2.5 goals taking my eye. If we take a look at the qualifiers for the 2018 tournament in 2017 Ukraine only had one game in which there were 3 goals or more and that was against Finland. The eventual runners up Croatia could only put 2 in against them. Current Champions, France, however did fair better in their score lines with 3 games from 5 ending with more than 2 goals scored. An other factor in this is that this tournament is unlike any other due to the fact that the Chinese Bat Flu has made it necessary to play the opening qualifiers in a week meaning that each team are playing 4 matches within a week. A tall order for any team. This may mean that whilst the dominant team may well take an early lead will the managers rest their goalscorers for future matches? This will undoubtedly be revealed later on tonight but I am putting my money where my mouth is and backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.0
Leicester are hosting Man Utd Today (21 March 2021) and Skybet have offered a free £5.00 bet when any in-play £5.00 cash bet in the first half is struck at odds of 1.5 (1/2) or above. This free bet is advertised as being used in the second half but like all free bets from SktBet it has no expiry.
Leicester have scored or conceded over 2.5 goals in 2 of the 3 F.A. Cup games played so far. Man Utd have scored (obviously) in all of their Matches. Both sides have Over 2.5 goals averages of 57% or more which makes this a possible bet. I will be placing the bet as close to kickoff as possible as an Early goal (which both of these sides are capable of) will reduce the odds to below 1.5 and therefore not make the bet qualification terms. Assuming the bet wins at 1.83 (odds at time of writing) the profit will be £4.19. Do not cash out as this will also make the qualification bet void!!
Tonight Tottenham host Liverpool. and several bookies are offering boosts to their shots on target markets. Today as all the stats are in one place I will be looking at SkyBets very attractive offer of Kane and Salah to have 2 or more shots on target each at 9.0 (8/1) And Virgin Bets each team 2 or more shots on target each half!! 3.75 (11/4).
Lets start by looking at the last time these 2 teams met on the 16 Dec 2020 at Anfield. The score was 2-1 and Liverpool had most of the match dominating the possession 76% to 24% Liverpool had 11 shots on Target with Tottenham only having 2 . Salah acounted for 4 of those by Liverpool and Kane only one of the 2 by Tottenham. VirginBets offering, at this stage doesnt look too inviting, however I will dig deeper. Kanes’ average shots on target figure is 1.6 / 90 minutes. Salah does not fair much better with an average of 1.8. Both of therse players are the 2 top goal scorers this season with Salah scoring 13 and Kane sharing second spot with Son on 12 goals.
Since that meeting, and starting with Kane, He has had 2 or more shots on target in the following matches.
Leicester (A) 2
Leeds Utd (H) 2
Sheffield Utd (A) 2
Salahs’ only 2 or more shots on target game since 16 Dec is
Crystal Palace (A) 2 (only played 33 minutes)
This seems quite worrying as a dip in form is indicated.
Will probably only put one of my £5.00 free bets on this
After going through the recent form of both teams it seems that 4 shots on target for each team would probably be quite a good bet the problem arises when 2 shots have to be in both halves for both teams. I am still looking for a stats sight that split the halves so will not commit either way on the virginBet Bet
Betornot 