Trading 15 ticks – Betornot

In Running Trading Tool “Back to Lay” with Top Tipped Horses – A Quick Summary

Saturday saw the start of a system that has shown promise, where frustration reigned in regards to well-tipped, short-priced favourites not producing winning performances. When I say Saturday I really mean that I had a 20-20 hindsight day for Friday where I had the fortune of being able to see the results as I mashed the criteria.
As you would expect, I got a 100% win rate – who wouldn’t.
The two horses concerned were Love is Golden and Jumbly
Jumbly won its race but Love is Golden definitely did not but both were low “in-play traders” making it possible to create a small profit from both runners instead of a level stake loss!
Applying the same criteria to Saturdays Top Tipped Horses I got 3 horses
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock
Loves Me Likearock won its race but the other 2 failed – miserably!
However, all three managed at least a 15 tick in play drop from their B.S.P. making the tally so far 5 out of 5 with three of the top tipped selections losing their race
Happy days so far then
Sunday gave up just 2 selections
14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips)
14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
Minella Trump won and a B.S.P. of 1.72 soon passed the 15 tick mark after climbing to an in-play high of 2.34 the half length that it won by might have had me twitching a bit if I had been watching but a win is a win. Bigbadmattie on the other hand, despite being quite heavily tipped was not favourite and went off at a B.S.P. of 3.4 and according to Timeform traded in-play at a low of 3.2. this is just 4 ticks. However! I actually backed and laid this race and horse and my lay bet of 2.8 was matched during the race

I am going to take this as a winner for the system – It would/might have not been totally matched if the bet was more than a tenner
7 from 7 for me and only 3 from 7 as regards to outright winners from the experts.
On to today and there is just one selection that meets the criteria
14:10 Newton Abbott; Kilmington Rose
A race of just 3 runners and I have just backed it at 1.64! This will have to trade as low as 1.49 for a 15 tick drop

Please take a look at my other posts regarding this system if you want to learn more and a 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by Clicking the link below

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Update 100% win rate

Yesterdays Blog post “Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections” gave, in some detail the workings behind narrowing down the back to lay dilemma.
Fridays selections produced a 100% success rate. So how did yesterdays selections fair
Just to remind you these were
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock

Alotaibi was forecast at an S.P. of 1.33 and you would be excused from thinking that with 10 tips from the National Racing Press “Experts” that this is surely one of those banker moments – Alas it was not to be as Wanees came home in front! However Alotaibi did have a B.S.P. of 1.85 which was 13 ticks more than the industry S.P. and reached an in-play Low of 1.4! This was in fact a 45 tick drop – more than enough to meet our requirements of 1.7 for 15 ticks and a small profit
Valley Forge with 11 tips and a NAP pushing it along and an attractive forecast S.P. of 3.00 (2/1) many a punter would think that it is “money back time” This was not to be unfortunately as Valley Forge managed just 3rd out of a field of 6. But as it turned out all was not lost as the B.S.P. was 2.51 and his in-play low dipped to 2.00 giving a tick drop of 25. This gave an in running profit of 12.8%
With 2 out of 2 losers as far as the straight punters were concerned, I on the other hand have an overall profit of 10% on my stakes.
The evening meeting at Wolverhampton and my last selection in this system was most tipped horse with 12 tips, Loves Me Likearock. Winning by just half a length very nearly made it 3 disasters for the favourite backers. Going off at 2.07 at the Betfair exchange traded to the lowest possible at 1.01 and another win for the system and finishing up 10% up on my stakes

There are just 2 selections today (5th Sept)
14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips)
14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)

The screenshot above shows the form and other stats for the two horses
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Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections

In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool”
The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings.
I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters
DOB % >= 50%
Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75%
Win % >= 20%
These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site.
This gave me this screen

Click the picture to enlarge in another tab

The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were
15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden
15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt
15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame
16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord
17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel
18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings
18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark
18:45 Kempton; Altraif
19:15 Kempton; Jumbly
19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express
Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list
Love is Golden amd Jumbly
Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board.
By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:

We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality.
In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded

The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5
A successful Trade!
Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark
Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam.
With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths
You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet
Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!

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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.

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There are 3 horses meeting the criteria today (4th Sept)
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock

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