trading with betangel

Understanding the movement of in-play odds in the Over/Under goals Markets

Understanding the initial direction of the Over or Under goals markets on a betting exchange when the game goes in-play and the different speeds that the market moves is key to judging your risk when trading. Grasping this and understanding what happens when a goal is scored is half the battle to making profit in these markets.
As a game goes in-play the probability of a goal being scored begins to diminish when you are trading the Over goals market which means that the odds will increase as the minutes tick away. Depending on which Over market you are attempting to trade, when a goal does go in, the odds will take a very steep drop to a level where the probability of the market being fulfilled will reflect in the odds depending on what time the goal was scored. For instance If you had laid the Over 2.5 goals and the first goal went in after 5 minutes then there are 85 more minutes of the game left for the remaining 2 goals to be scored and the probability of this happening will reflect as very high and the odds will plummet to a point which would put you into a loss position in the market. If, however, the first goal wasnt scored until the 85th minute then the probability of 2 more goals being scored in the final 5 minutes is very low and the movement in the odds would be slight, if at all.
To demonstrate this visually I am going to use a smart bit of software called BetAngel and a feature in the program called “Soccer Mystic”. This will “predict” the odds during a predetermined game if or when goals are scored. There is a game tonight in the English Championship between Barnsley and Swansea City and for no other reason that it is first alphabetically will serve my purpose admirably.
At the time of posting this the predicted lay odds on the Over 2.5 goals market is 1.91. While this is just a predicted odds level at kick-off the market can be different depending on factors such as team sheet announcements, but for the purposes of this it will suit. If we say that we have a lay bet of £5.00 at odds of 1.91 this would give us a liability (total ammount we can lose) of £4.55 at kick-off. We can use “Soccer Mystic” to see our profit/loss should a goal be scored in the fifth minute. The screen shot below shows the predicted odds if no goal is scored in minute 5 and the predicted odds if there was a fifth minute goal

Barnsley v Swansea predicted odds after 5 minutes

As you can see we can determine our risk if there was a goal in the 5th minute and this would be a loss of £2.08 if we traded out. In the next screen shot Soccer Mystic also gives a visual representation of how the market “recovers” as the match progresses and can give us an indication as to when we could trade out for no loss if while watching the match we ascertain that the first goal was a fluke i.e. own goal or a lucky fumble in the box and decide to let the bet run to our predetermined exit point.

The predicted odds are shown by the red line in the graph and as you can see after the first goal going in at the 5th minute the odds plunged to 1.34 but then as the game progresses and no other goal is scored the market recovers slowly to rise after about 35 minutes in-play time to a break even point where we can exit the trade for a no loss/profit. In the graph the horizontal blue line is the “profit” line and when we are laying the market when the red line is above the blue a profitable trade is possible.
As with all things betting or trading research is the key and you may have noticed that I mentioned a predetermined exit point. After doing some really basic research on this game tonight I came to a decision, provisionally, that the first goal probably, using previous games as a guide that perhaps, barring fluke goals, the first goal might be some time after the 17th minute. Using this as our control point we can set out exit point at 15 minutes win or lose

In the screen shot above I have pointed the cursor at 15 minutes and in the ringed box shows us that the predicted odds after 15 minutes when the first goal was scored after 5 mins would be about 1.49. This would leave us in a losing position but if we were right and the next goal went in at minute 17 then our loss would be greater. If of course no goal was scored and we trade out at 15 minutes Soccer Mystic can show us our predicted profit as shown below.

I am sure you are thinking “what if I want to back over 2.5 goals ” then the opposite applies and if you had backed this market at the odds shown and a quick goal was scored then the odds would move dramatically in your favour to enable you to trade out at a profit. as shown below.

Barnsley v Swansea back bet 5 minute goal

We would exit this trade at this point for a £1.93 profit and this would be great but again when we go into this trade we need to pick an exit point and having done the same research we think that the first goal will be at about 17 minutes how far past this point do we go if no goals are scored. If we pick our exit point at say 25 minutes and no goals are scored Soccer Mystic can show us what sort of loss we would expect to take as demonstrated below

Barnsley v Swansea 25 minute goal on a back bet

As you can see an overall loss of £1.95 would be our exit loss.
To summarise if we are laying an “Over” market the odds rise steadily in our favour and continue to provide the potential profit but as soon as a goal is scored our profit potential vanishes to be replaced with the very great risk of a losing trade, on the flip side, if we back the “over” market then our position is of a losing trade until a goal goes in and the earlier the better.

Just for fun there are 7 championship matches tonight and the average time for a first goal this season in the championship league is 32 minutes the following 7 screen shots show what you could expect to win if you laid the Over 2.5 goals market and each game remained goalless until this point.

These 7 screenshots predict the odds and probable trade out profit if there were no goals in their respective games

Lay The Draw and Trade out after the First Goal. The Results

The automation files for this trade performed without a hitch and a profit was made even though Manchester City floundered badly losing 2-0 to Crystal Palace.
The lunchtime kick-off was between Leicester City and Arsenal and as we lunched at the Greyhound Inn at Milton Malsor, Arsenal scored in the 5th minute. At 12:36 Betangel detected the goal and duly placed a back bet into the draw market 25 miles away from where I was tucking into my Gammon Egg and Chips and the first trade was settled for a profit of £1.28 whatever the outcome of the game after 90 mins.

The two screenshots above show, firstly, how the bets were placed and secondly the timings, stake, market and odds of each lay and back bets. Nothing in the research predicted the outcome of this match apart from there being at least 1 goal scored which was enough as soccer mystic indicated that which ever side scored first we would see a profitable trade being made.
The second researched game was the Burnley v Brentford game at 3pm. As mentioned in the research there were no previous meetings of these two sides so it all came down to this seasons form in the goals department and again the research bore no resemblance to the actual match played as Burnley opened the scoring after 4 minutes.

£2.10 was the profit taken from this trade but whether it was a VAR factor or a betfair operative going to sleep the market did not become unsuspended for 5 minutes after a somewhat confusing 11 minutes of the game kicking off either way a goal caused the market to move in our favour and a successful trade was executed 11 minutes after the official time of the goal.

Early goals seemed to be the trend yesterday as Liverpool opened their account with a 4th Minute goal from Henderson creating a £4.05 profit for us. 2 minutes after the goal went in the odds of the draw had risen to 12.0 and Betangel duly placed a back bet into the market of £5.83 which was matched 6 minutes and 36 seconds

Total profit so far £7.43

The only losing trade was the Manchester City v Crystal Palace fixture, where, after 6 minutes the second worst thing after a goalless match happened, Crystal Palace scored!! The resulting back bet placed, unemotionally, by betangel made a £9.09 LOSS. This was a slightly better outcome than the scenario projected by Soccer Mystic of a £10.74 loss after a Crystal Palace first goal but at least the bookies are opening the Bolanger this morning.

In contrast to the other games so far it took Chelsea 65 minutes to score the first goal in this game and this gave us the largest profit of the day after backing the draw at odds of 9.4. This made the trade profit at £5.01. I am beginingg to wonder if this is fun or heart failure provoking 🤣.

Che Adams opened the scoring in the Watford v Southampton game 10 minutes after our research suggested. This resulted in our trade making £2.69 profit and as the half time whistles echoed around the grounds we were £1.03 in profit.

Total profit for all researched matches after Chelsea’s 65th Minute Goal came to £6.04
It would be unfair for me not to point out that Laying the draw on the five 3pm games at a stake of £10.00 would need a betfair balance of £250.00.

Laying The Draw and Trading Out after the First Goal – Research

The first Premiership game today is the mid-table clash between Leicester City and Arsenal. The Odds for Leicester are 2.5, Arsenal 3.0 and to Lay the draw the lay odds are 3.75. There has been at least one goal scored in the past 9 games where these two sides have met with just one 1-1 draw in July 2020. This season neither team have scored in the first 15 minutes of the game with Leicester preferring to wait until after the 30th minute to get on the score card. Arsenal, away, have only scored once this season and have conceded at least one goal in each 15 minute time segment. Leicester have scored in all but one of their home games this season only losing to nil against Manchester City. They have also scored 2 or more goals in the last 4 of their matches (Home and Away). Arsenals Away record is dismal but leicster have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 8 matches giving hope that at least 1 goal will be scored. The odds for over 0.5 goals is 1.06 suggesting strongly that the market expects.

After opening “Soccer Mystic” in the Betangel software and putting 30 minutes into the time of first goal we can see that a profit would be gained if either team scored.

Alphabetically Burnley v Brentford is the first 3pm fixture and the odds are similar to the Leicester v Arsenal game earlier in the day. Burnley are slight favourites at 2.76 and Brentford a few ticks higher at odds of 2.96. To lay the draw odds of 3.35 are on offer. Burnley have conceded in all of their home games this season apart from the 0-0 draw against Norwich City. Brentford also have a 0-0 score line against Crystal Palace but have scored in all of their other 3 away games. Both teams have scored in the first 15 minutes but Brentford have the edge with 4 of their seasons goals coming in the first half. With no previous meetings of these two teams there are no head to head stats.

Again after loading the relevant information into Soccer Mystic we see that there would be a slightly better return if the form of Brentford ran true and scored in the 16th minute. A few quid lower liability also makes this an attractive trade.

Liverpool v Brighton is next under the spotlight and with Liverpool knocking at Chelsea’s door in top spot are clear favourites to win this with odds of 1.27. Brighton however, in the same fixture last season , beat Liverpool 0-1! Liverpool have scored first in 3 out of 4 of their last home games whereas Brighton have just one opening goals from the same number of away games (4) Using soccerstats opening goals table we can see that Liverpool’s average time of scoring first is 40 minutes at home and when they did concede first it was in the 22nd minute. Brighton’s only opening goal when away was in the 90th minute and their average conceding time was 24 minutes.

After putting an average time of 40 minutes into Soccer Mystic a first goal by Brighton at this point would have the same result as Lille last night against PSG but the difference here is that after looking back at Lille’s Stats they scored first on no fewer than 4 times out of 7 matches. Confident of a Liverpool opening goal this trade looks good on reflection the level of profit just depends on the timing of the goal.

Another outrageously short “odded” Manchester City host Crystal Palace this afternoon in the 3rd 3pm kick-off and going straight to the first goal time table and see that Manchester have scored 3 opening goals at home this season at an average time of 9 minutes and have not conceded a first goal at home at all this season. A good omen. Crystal Palace have conceded a total of 5 goals in the first half away this season and scored none and Manchester City have scored a total of 6 goals this season at home conceding none.
Putting 9 minutes into Soccer Mystic produces the following figures.

A very high liability in relation to the other matches today does reflect the probability of a draw happening but hopefully the stats will bare out and quite a healthy profit can be made. But remember nothing is without risk.

Top team Chelsea travel to Newcastle today in the penultimate 3pm premiership game today. This might be a slightly more dangerous match to lay the draw on as an early goal by the hosts would see the bet “greening” red! They have opened the scoring 3 times at home this season with an average time of 21 minutes and when they did concede first this came in the 13th minute. Chelsea have yet to concede a first goal when away but have an average opening goal time later in the game than Newcastle at the 33rd minute. A total of 4 goals being scored in the first half at home this season might suggest a “quick score strategy” and hope the opposition don’t counter. This of course wouldn’t happen in this case as Chelsea would come back with vengeance but the damage would be done to our trade. Putting this scenario into Soccer Mystic tells the story

While there seems to be little doubt about a goal in this game the distinct danger is that it will be the home side – not a good thing for this trade.

Back to some sort of normality as far as odds go comes the final 3pm kickoff between Watford and Southampton. The bookies favoutite is Southampton with odds of 2.32 but home side advantage and Watfords opening goal record at home may sway. The assurance of at least one goal by either side is bourne out by the fact that 11 goals have been scored in total over 3 games involving these two teams pitted against teams level or lower in the premiership. Watford have no “clean sheets” this season at home so if we populate Soccer Mystic with Watford’s Opening goal timing of 10 mins we get the following scenarios.

The final game today will have to wait as I have to go out soon.