William Hill – Betornot

Build a Bet – Request your own after you have researched it using your own Stats Spreadsheet.

Requesting your own “build a bet” is not as daunting as first supposed they can only say no or more probably not reply at all but in the cases where they do price your bet they sometimes feature it on the platform.
Firstly you need to be armed with your own figures and an idea of what sort of markets you are going to put in to it. To this end I have the beginnings of a Workbook for the premiership which will list the following probable outcomes based on the seasons figures for each team involved.
Full Time Goals
Half Time Goals
Match Shots
Match Shots on Target
Match Fouls
Match Corners
Booking Points
BTTS

The following is a screen Shot of the stats and actual results from the 2nd game of the season Arsenal v Notts Forest

The data on the left is collated from all the games Arsenal played at home in the premiership in the season 22/23 and all the games Notts Forest played away in the season
The figures on the right are the actual stats from the game played. As you can see the predictions were right on all counts save total shots and the BTTS predictions.

The following games were played that first league week
Burnley v Manchester City – No Data

Arsenal v Nott’m Forest – As Above

Bournemouth v West Ham

Brighton v Luton – No Data

Sheffield Utd v Crystal Palace – No Data

Newcastle v Aston Villa

Newcastle Utd v Aston Villa Sat 12 Aug 23

Brentford V Tottenham

Chelsea v Liverpool

Man Utd v Wolves

As you can see from the above screenshots there was just one match which was a winner with all selections coming in.

Nott’m Forest v Sheffield Utd – No Data

Fulham v Brentford – 0-3

Liverpool v Bournemouth – 3-1

Wolves v Brighton – 1-4
Note – The actual corners leg won as the prediction was 8+ ie 8 or more but the bet still lost on the BTTS leg
( I will explain the intricates of the bets below as some bookmakers interpret the wording of bets differently to others)

Tottenham v Man Utd – 2-0

Man City v Newcastle Utd – 1-0

Aston Villa v Everton – 4-0

West Ham v Chelsea – 3-1

Crystal Palace v Arsenal – 0-1

Luton Town v Burnley – No Data
This match was postponed until 3rd Oct 23

Week 2 saw two of our bet builder bets winning but we are regularly being let down by the BTTS selection but I am getting a degree of success with this workbook when I back test
Week 3 saw another two builda bets coming in
Bournemouth v Tottenham and Newcastle v Liverpool with 2 more being let down by the BTTS leg.

What odds can you expect to get with these bets?
That depends on the bookmakers who are willing to price these bets up!
You can request these bets via the twitter (or X as it is now known) by using the individual betting sites hash tag address and I found that if you sent your request to them with all of the bookies hash tags in the message then whether or not they thought they might be in competition with each other the odds tended to come back slightly better.
The following was one such bet I requested for the Leicester City v West Brom game on 20th April

I got a quick response from Coral with favourable odds of 7/1 (8.0) I also got a message from SkyBet saying that I could build this bet on there platform but this was not strictly true as they didn’t offer some of the legs that I requested. But it is always wise to shop around.

This bet lost 🙄 on the corners leg as I requested a price on the Over 10.5 instead of 10+ market If I had worded this as “10+ Corners” it would have won!!! as there was exactly 10 corners in the match

The following hash tag addresses are for the bookmakers listed next to them
SkyBet #requestABet
Paddy Power #WhatOddsPaddy
William Hill #YourOdds
Coral #YourCall
Ladbrokes #GetAPrice
Betway #BetYourWay
Betfair #OddsOnThat
Betfred #PickYourPunt
Betvictor #PriceItUp
BoyleSports #InventABet

Lastly I will provide this work in Progess worksheet for you to backtest the entire season if you wish however the 3 promoted sides last season – Burnley, Luton and Sheffield Utd will have no data for the 22/23 season

premiership-bet-builder-workbook Download

William Hill Boosted Bet Raheem Sterling To Have Over 2 Shots On Target (90 Mins) – Was 9/2

With 3 goals to his name Raheem Sterling seems to have gone from a press induced no hoper case to a serious contender for the Golden Boot. It is true that his season at Manchester City did not match up to the hype given at the start of the season but he has replied to his critics with a resounding middle finger by becoming England’s top scorer in the European Championships. This bet is all about shots on target and while you might be suckered into the belief that shots on target are a better bet than actual goals you may be surprised at how few shots on target by individual players there are.
To begin with I will look at the Total shots on target recorded by England in the tournament so far

England v Croatia 1-0
There were a total of 8 shots AT goal in this game but only 2 were on target

England v Scotland 0-0
There were a total of 9 shots AT goal in this game but only 1 was on target

Czech Republic v England 0-1
There were a total of 5 shots AT goal in this game but only 3 were on target

England v Germany 2-0
There were a total of 5 shots AT goal in this game and 4 of them were on Target

As you can see England have steadily improved their shooting accuracy but these figures show shots on target for the whole team not one player. Without taking anything away from Sterling as I think he is a star player in this England Squad, if we look at his season stats for Man City last season in the UEFA Champions League he averaged just 1.1 shot on target. If you couple this with the assumption that The Czech Republic will see him as the biggest threat to their goal I cannot see him having many chances and will in inimitable Sterling style wait for his given opportunity and score when they least expect it
In my opinion to expect 3 shots on target from any player in this tournament in a single game is a bit of a stretch and is worth considerably more than a measly 6/1 (7.0)

Rangers, Crystal Palace and Watford all to win

First up Today is William Hills Super Odds – Saturday 3pm Treble
Max stake on this is a fiver and this on its own suggests to the unsuspecting punter that the bookie is frightened that the bet will win. Whereas if you scroll down the page a bit to the enhanced Odds section bigger odds specials exist with no stake restrictions!!
Enough bookie psychology, down to facts
Rangers are flying high at the top of the Scottish Premiership and host 10th place (out of 12) Kilmarnock. The goalscoring ability of rangers at present are with out precedence, managing an average strike rate of 3 goals per match when playing at home, Kilmarnock do struggle a little as they have only managed to score 9 goals away this season. Odds for a rangers win today are 1.15 with Hills. That is quite a carrot on the end of the stick. I will skip Crystal Palace for a minute and look towards the other short priced selection.
Watford are also at home today to Bristol City, will want to collect some points today after a three match streak of only picking up 2 points with goalless draws against Coventry City and Millwall and perhaps an inexcusable defeat at the hands of QPR. 3 points today will keep them level with Reading (who are likely to beat Millwall today) in that all important promotion play-off zone. Watford’s home record while playing mid table teams such as Bristol are Mostly wins with two notable losses One against QPR as I mentioned above and the other against Cardiff City in one of the few matches where Watford failed to score at all. Bristol City on the other hand undoubtedly struggle against teams from the top of the table when away losing to Brentford (3-2), Norwich (2-0), Reading (3-1) and Bournemouth (1-0).
Watford’s defensive posture is second only to Swansea having conceded only 20 goals from 28 games played (Swansea have only conceded 15!). While their offensive record is similar to Bristols, having scored 31 goals to Bristols 29 from the same number (28) of games. Watford seem to be quick goal merchants catching their opponents off guard at the beginning of halves as they, when playing at home, scored 6 in minutes 0-15 and 7 in minutes 46-60. Bristol do have a bigger proportion of conceded goals when away in minutes 0-15 so a big possibility of a morale destroying goal by Watford would Indubitably help their cause.
As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Hill are offering 2.45 on a home win against 3.1 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.

This treble has been boosted from 3/1 (which is very generous as should you put these games into a treble on your betslip you would get 7/2!!) to 5/1

these are the facts and you can make up your own mind
Good Luck with whatever you Decide