Author Archives: shakey775

Backing the most tipped horses of the day

On a tangent to NAPs Betting the racing post have a feature they call the selection boxes for each meeting of the day which leading press tipsters are invited to submit their selections for each race. These are not necessarily “NAPs” just run of the mill tips which they think will win. When these tips are all collated certain horses emerge with more tips than most and are more likely to win. That’s the theory as the combined might of the British Racing Press mostly tip a horse then what can possibly go wrong. A major downside of this theory is that the cowardly bookmakers take these selections into consideration and promptly the odds take a most undignified dive and become very short very quickly. There isnt any sort of a remedy for this you just need to take the odds and hope for a couple of degrees warmth if BOG goes in your favour.
These selections can be found quite easily without the need to rush out and buy the Racing Post as several racing sites post these horses usually in the middle of a bookmakers advertisement so that they get commission on the clicks.
Today I have used Mellissa Jones’ page on the Mirror website and the following horses have the most tips today
Beholden – Newton Abbott 13:00 9 tips
Courtland – Newton Abbott 13:30 11 Tips
Wbee – Stratford 14:30 9 tips
Forchena – Newton Abbott 16:25 9 tips
Time will only tell now if this could be profitable or or whether it will show that even the combined power of the brains of the racing press is no match for the unpredictability of British Racing
Should we Bet Or Not?
come back later to find out.

NAPS Betting

What is a NAP? apart from a short sleep a Racing Nap is a tipsters best bet of the day. Derived from the card game Napoleon in which the best hand is a Napoleon or NAP. Its as simple as that so stop trying to work out the acronym.
The racing Post runs a “NAPS Table” for the racing press who are invited to submit their “best bet” of the day with points being given as the equivalent winnings at S.P. to a level £1.00 stake. For instance if the horse wins at odds of 4/1 then they will be awarded £4.00 and if it loses then a subtraction of £1.00. At the time of writing this Blog the current Leader is Templegate from the Sun newspaper with a positive balance of £46.68 and a losing streak of 4 days.
Everyone has their favourite tipster and you can make up your own mind who to follow if any at all but backing the NAP of a serious tipster means just 1 bet per day. When I say “serious Tipster” I say it with a certain amount of scepticism as I suspect that some journalists in the table are perhaps pinning the racing page up on the wall and chucking a dart at it and submitting the horse closest to the hole it made. I refer in particular to the lower end of the table where some 66/1 outsiders are being tipped! surely these cannot be their best bets of the day.
I am not an advocate of staking plans but in this case I will follow the Sporting Life Nap using the 10% method of staking just to make it interesting.
I started on July 12 (Monday) and as luck would have it the NAP won at 2.25 and working from an initial bank of £10.00 after day 1 my bank stood at £12.25! None have won yet since and the bank now stands at £8.37 with Pretty Green to run at Nottingham today with 84p riding on it at odds of 4.5 (7/2) and BOG if the price lengthens.
I ill try and update this post on a daily basis but work commitments may dictate otherwise.
Pretty Green lost and focus switched to Saturdays NAP which is Mountain Peak Running at Haydock and with my bank running at £7.53, 75p goes on the selection at odds of 3.5 (5/2)
5th Place is all it could manage which brings a losing streak of 5. Sundays NAP is Moneykenny and I am just waiting until 9am to ensure I get BOG

Sporting Life Football Recommended Bets Study 2020

When my Dad took the sporting Life Newspaper when I was a boy all I can remember about it was the pages of Racing and Greyhounds. I dont remember seeing football coverage at all so when the racing post took over and the Sporting Life became a multi sport on-line website the powers that be must have gone down the local bookies and recruited the first punter they saw for their football tipster as the results for 2020 in their recommended football section are dismal!! It is plain as day which end of the office the golfers are propping up. 58.31 point loss on the year makes for a very good time for the bookies. In the months that there was a profit the average was 10.86 points this being bolstered by a November Profit of 34.40 points (Perhaps the footy guys were on holiday and the golfers stepped into the breach) Which ever way you look at this the prospect is gloomy and more could be gained by actually laying these bets at the exchanges.
Anyway as usual I will list their figures below but be warned it is not happy reading.
Jan 6.24 points profit
Feb 5.43 points profit
Mar 5.35 points profit
Apr No Bets
May 7.00 points profit ( Just BundesLiga bets)
Jun 27.79 points Loss
Jul 12.94 points loss
Aug 6.75 point profit
Sep 5.03 point Loss
Oct 49.70 point Loss
Nov 34.40 point profit
Dec 28.02 point Loss

I did think that when I was compiling these figures that the guys had made their recommendations, not taking into consideration the fact that crowd factor makes a difference but it was a steady decline after May.
I did think that these tips might be worth the fun factor but after seeing Junes results I did think BetOrNot!!!

Keep trying lads

Sporting Life Golf recommended bets study for 2020

A somewhat overlooked sport when it comes to tipping is Golf, with very few tipsters on the social networks compared with football and racing. The Sporting Life Golf tipsters are Ben Coley, Matt Cooper, and Jason Daniels and his tips for the whole of 2020 reaped an amazing 375 points profit and that was with no golf being played in April and May due to the Chinese Bat Flu.
When you consider that for the whole of 2020 the total profit for recommended bets across all sports was 275 points the only conclusion that can be made is that the golfers corner is propping up the SL tipsters office. You would think that with such a high profit that the stakes wagered would be quite high and admittedly for Januarys 63 point profit it cost 90 points wagered which isnt a high ROI but on saying that the average recommended stakes per tournament is 13 points making it an affordable (I bet £1.00 per point) and fun betting pastime. Who knows you may even start watching grown men trying to put a small white ball down rabbit holes from half a mile distance.
Here are 2020 profit/ loss results by Month

January 63 points Profit
February 50.16 points Loss
March 143.68 points profit
April No Golf
May No Golf
June 26 points Profit
July 141 point Profit
August 68.36 points Profit
Sept 66.12 Points Profit
Oct 32.78 points Loss
Nov 15.75 points Loss
Dec 34 points Loss
4 losing months from 12 is not bad and as I said 375 points profit over the year.
Just as a quick footnote here are Ben Coleys advised bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic held in Detroit this weekend(183.5 points Profit 😲😲🏌️‍♂️🏌️‍♂️) when everyone was watching Kane creep closer to that Golden Boot award

2.5pts e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 28/1 (William Hill, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Maverick McNealy at 70/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Beau Hossler at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Cameron Davis at 150/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Byeong Hun An at 250/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Davis Thompson at 400/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

C.Davis won after a playoff
J. Niemann tied for second

Not bad for a weekend’s work. This man seems to know his stuff

Simon Holt (Sporting Life Tipster) More In-depth study

Further to my previous blog post about the Sporting Life Recommended bets. Simon Holt (@SimonHolt3) had an outstanding May with his racing tips and this post is just about breaking down the figures into which category of race made the most points profit. His profit to advised odds for May was 41.3 points and was all flat racing tips over various distances and an even spread of handicap and Non-handicap races.
Starting with his Handicap race tips, he tipped horses in a total of 18 handicap races with 5 winning tips (28%) gaining 11.8 points profit at S.P. and 24.5 points profit at Advised Odds. If we drill this down further into race distances his profit was greatest when he tipped horses in 5f sprints, achieving 12 points profit from 2 winners out of 3 tips at advised odds in handicap races and 8.8 points from the same strike rate in Non-Handicap races. The tables below show the races in which he had success and those which failed!!

the whole spreadsheet can be downloaded by clicking the link below

simon-holtmay-statsDownload

William Hill Boosted Bet Raheem Sterling To Have Over 2 Shots On Target (90 Mins) – Was 9/2

With 3 goals to his name Raheem Sterling seems to have gone from a press induced no hoper case to a serious contender for the Golden Boot. It is true that his season at Manchester City did not match up to the hype given at the start of the season but he has replied to his critics with a resounding middle finger by becoming England’s top scorer in the European Championships. This bet is all about shots on target and while you might be suckered into the belief that shots on target are a better bet than actual goals you may be surprised at how few shots on target by individual players there are.
To begin with I will look at the Total shots on target recorded by England in the tournament so far

England v Croatia 1-0
There were a total of 8 shots AT goal in this game but only 2 were on target

England v Scotland 0-0
There were a total of 9 shots AT goal in this game but only 1 was on target

Czech Republic v England 0-1
There were a total of 5 shots AT goal in this game but only 3 were on target

England v Germany 2-0
There were a total of 5 shots AT goal in this game and 4 of them were on Target

As you can see England have steadily improved their shooting accuracy but these figures show shots on target for the whole team not one player. Without taking anything away from Sterling as I think he is a star player in this England Squad, if we look at his season stats for Man City last season in the UEFA Champions League he averaged just 1.1 shot on target. If you couple this with the assumption that The Czech Republic will see him as the biggest threat to their goal I cannot see him having many chances and will in inimitable Sterling style wait for his given opportunity and score when they least expect it
In my opinion to expect 3 shots on target from any player in this tournament in a single game is a bit of a stretch and is worth considerably more than a measly 6/1 (7.0)

William Hill Cross Match Special “Czech Republic, Denmark, Ukraine & England All To Score 90 Mins – Was 13/5”

William Hill Boast “Nothing Beats William Hill when it comes to betting on football”
This I suppose can be taken in different contexts and being a devout cynic of bookmakers in general I tend to be suspicious when they offer such low odds (4.33) on such a preposterous bet – England to concede to the Ukraine – never have I heard such a thing.!!! but this is what you are betting on in effect.
Let’s have a look at the stats for the first of these games today

Czech Republic v Denmark
In their 4 previous games, Czech Republic has kept 2 clean sheets against Scotland and Netherlands winning both games 2-0. Denmark has on the other hand only 1 clean sheet. The Czech Republic has scored 5 goals in the tournament so far. Patrik Schik has 4 of these goals for the Czech Republic and could well be worth a punt at the Golden Boot. Denmark and Spain have scored the most goals this competition with 9 to their name in the normal 90 minutes of a game so this part of the bet may well see each team scoring in 90 minutes (BTTS odds with WH are 2.05! 2.14 are available on SBK (Smarkets Sportsbook))

Ukraine V England Kickoff at 8pm tonight and William Hill are offering odds of 2.25 for BTTS making a BTTS double 4.61!!! This is bigger than their boosted bet – Is it any wonder bookies are not trusted pillars of the community!!
England go into this game with a 100% clean sheet record and while 2-0 has been Englands biggest tally of goals in a game this bet is all about keeping the ball out of the net as far as William Hill are concerned. Ukraine have conceded goals in each of their Euro games and failing to score once against Austria.
In my humble opinion 3 out of these 4 teams will score but duty binds me not to bet on The Ukraine shattering England’s Clean sheet record but If you were to back this a BTTS double pays more than the boosted bet, and they are the same bet!!
Good Luck in what you decide.

Sporting Life Recommended Bets May Study

Sporting Life, the website, boasts a 3000+ pts profit over the last 17 years and an impressive 214 pts profit for May this year. I could do with a couple of hundred quid each month so let’s see how they did it. Sporting Life tips section is the place to find the Recommended bets and they have a fully checkable archive. In this post I am going to delve into the various sections of the May 2021 to find out who or what made the money and who or what let the side down.
Beginning with the racing section there are a total of 7 different “tipsters”, For instance Weekend view deals with just ante post bets for the coming weekend and “Punting Pointers” generally has a selection each day.

As this is going to be a long-winded affair, instead of having reams of information, I am going to put their results into an excel spreadsheet and make it available to view at your leisure or if you wish to contact me I can send it directly to you.
Each spreadsheet will contain the following information.
1. Date
2. Selection
3. Advised Odds
4. Advised Odds Profit/Loss
5. S.P. Odds
6. S.P. Odds Profit/Loss
7. Result
I am adding the S.P. data as these selections odds tend to shorten considerably from the tips publication point to the starting gate. With this we can identify the tipsters the bookies fear just like the good old days of “Pricewise”
First up is “Punting Pointers” who has an overall profit of 6.85 points from 76 bets at advised odds for the merry month of May. If you had backed these at S.P. then you would have lost 3.78 points. At £2.00 per point gives an advised monetary profit of £13.70 and at S.P. a monetary loss of £7.56. Not bad for a months fun, but it doesnt end there! Next for the 3rd degree is Weekend View

punting-poiners-may-statsDownload

Weekend View consists of Ante Post Bets for the coming weekend. Many people are wary of ante-post betting as it is an istant loss should the trainer withdraw his charge before final declarations. This said however the plus side is that there is often a much bigger price to be snaffled betting Ante Post. As with the punting pointers spreadsheet I will be including the S.P. results for the faint hearted who want to wait for race day.

weekend-view-may-statsDownload

Value Bets is the next “Tipster” and the advised bets are usually of a bigger price. Strangely though the advice is, more often than not, to place win bets and not E/W bets and more than one has placed at odds of more than 10/1. I have included in this spreadsheet the figures for backing each horse each/way and assumed the bookies paid 1/5 odds on a place. Doing this got a 1.3 point profit instead of a -6 point loss.

value-bet-may-statsDownload

With the general “Tipsters” analysed I will move onto the brave souls who actually put their name to their selections. It seems that one or two may well need to keep their money in their wallet while there is one who does well putting his money where his mouth is.
Fran Berry seems to be the Irish specialist and achieved a loss of 2.94 points in May to advised odds whereas backing the selections at starting price gave a loss of 13.12 points suggesting that Mr Berry is perhaps a bit of a “pricewise” and some more research might hit upon some tasty “Back to Lay” opportunities.

fran-berry-may-statsDownload

Moving on to the next tipster for no other reason than he is next on the list is Simon Holt. Simon Holt is the most successful tipster in may with a massive 41.3 point profit to advised odds. Starting Price profit is significantly lower at 16.67 points profit for May. Backing to lay is definitely an option but pointless when the man is in such good form!

simon-holtmay-statsDownload

As with everything racing, these figures should not and don’t reflect a gaurenteed profit each month and more research should be done before blindly punting good money onto bad horses. That said however, betting is fun as long as you stay within your limits. Simon Holt advised a total of 38 points which is just over £1.00 per day working to 1 point = £1.00 that to my mind is fun. If you start working to £10.00 = 1 point then things are a little more serious.

Just as a pointer to previous months Simon Holt had the following gains/losses
April -20.5pts
March -16.25
February +1.38
January +4
As you can see not life-changing but up over the year so far, but how many of you would have followed him into May betting £10/point, and how many of you would still be with him at £1/point.
I will be posting which type of race he and the others seem to do well at and which to avoid. Follow me so as not to miss it and other factual snippets to hopefully enable you not to give too much money to the blood-sucking bookies!!

Ladbrokes Early Kick-Off Treble, Leeds Utd , Rangers, and St Johnstone all to Win.

Boosted from 5.5 (9/2) to 6.5 (11/2) this lunchtime treble seems feasible at first sight. All the teams are above their opponents in their respective leagues. Leeds are playing Burnley away and Burnley are having a big winless spell at home having not won a game at home in the last 8 games. Leeds however have lost 9 times this season away from home with notable defeats at Brighton (2-0) and Crystal Palace (4-1). Most of their wins have come from playing teams in the lower half of the league. Burnley’s position at 15th owes much to their ability to draw games and save the point having reached that result 6 times at home this season. Perhaps this will be Leeds Utd’s first draw this season away from home. Leeds are 2.15 to win.
Top of the Scottish Premiership are Rangers who, at home have only conceded 4 goals all season. They host Aberdeen this lunchtime and seem quite invincible. The score in the reverse fixture was 0-1. Rangers have won 6 of their last 8 matches scoring 1st in 32 of their 37 league games. The stats on this game are of little consequence – If Rangers Lose today something is seriously wrong in Scottish football. Rangers are 1.25 to win.
St Johnstone is the third lunchtime fixture in this boosted treble and are playing Livingston at home and of the last 4 home games have won just 2, losing to Aberdeen and drawing 1-1 with Rangers. This does not however reflect their recent form over the last 8 games gaining 14 points from 8 matches relates to 1.75 points per game. Livingston’s recent 8 game form on the other hand is abysmal with only 4 points losing their last 3 away games to Hibs, Celtic, and Motherwell. St Johnstone are 2.25 to win at home.
In summary, Rangers have to be the banker in this trio there is a distinct possibility of Leeds drawing for the first time away this season and the odds don’t marry with Livingston’s recent form and I am a bit suspicious about St Johnstones odds being greater than evens!
Good Luck I whatever you decide
Ladbrokes won’t close my account but neither will they allow me to put even 5p on this bet. Bit childish really.