Author Archives: shakey775

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Sundays Results

Hi All
I will get straight into the results so I can post todays selections in my next post
Yesterday there were 3 possible selections for the 15 tick drop strategy all at different racecourses
The first on the list was Viking Ruby running at Worcester in the 13:35, Far from being favourite it went off at odds of 24.9 on Betfair and the in-play low price got to 8.4 before the traders gave up. Although this B.S.P. is out of our scope it is worth logging as these rules are not set in stone and I can adjust them as more results play out. The 15 tick drop price would have been 15.00 so this would have been a complete success giving a healthy £6.02 profit after Commission had been deducted
Middle for Diddle was Affable running in the 15:30 at Naas. A healthy in scope B.S.P. of 11.00 rose to an in-play low of 15.00 which means that the jockey must have put the damned horse in reverse at the start losing £10.00 into the bargain.
Lastly, and fortunately a placed horse Beyond Equal started with a healthy in scope B.S.P. of 9.40 dropped to an in-play low of just 2.00 which easily met our 15 tick target of 6.4 and after betfair commission has been paid I was left with £4.18 profit.
In summary then with one runner out of scope I lost £5.82 on day 1 to £10.00 stakes
No one can accuse me of waiting until I had a winning day to start my study.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

DOBbing or “Double or Bust” your Bet.

Similar to trading a 15 tick drop, this system allows the trade to trading price to drop to 50% of the back price and lay at double the stake. for instance if you back a horse at 10/1 (11.00) for £10.00 to double your stake you would need to lay the horse in running at odds of 9/2 (5.50) at a stake of £20.00! The calculation is as follows
Back £10.00 @ 11.00 returns a £100.00 profit (£10 stake x 11.00 Odds – £10 stake = £100) if the horse wins, -£10.00 if it loses
Lay £20.00 @ 5.50 will give a loss of £90 (£20.00 stake x 5.5 odds – £20.00 stake) if the horse wins, £20.00 profit if it loses.
So if the horse wins we win £10.00 (£100 – £90) and if the horse loses we win £10.00 (£20 – £10) There would also be a commission to pay at what ever rate betfair charge you on your account, in my case it is 2% so I would be left with a £9.80 profit. and its doesn’t matter if the horse wins or loses.
This part is simple enough the hard part is finding suitable horses in which this strategy has a greater chance of happening than others. Every horse that wins, DOBs this is a fact! so you might be excused to think that if you DOB all favourites then you should be in profit but the figures for all outright favourites winning in 2020 was just over 35% and some of the other 65% of losers would undoubtedly have DOBbed but we are looking for a more cast iron way of picking suitable runners. This is where the nice people at “In Running Trading Tool” website come in.
In their “simple DOB strategy they recommend the following criteria

  • Eliminate all horses that have a DOB% rate of 84.99% or less
  • Eliminate all horses that have a “ShortinRunning” figure that is a negative
  • There is no criteria mentioned for forecast odds or win% rate.
Click the picture to make it bigger

As you can see from the screen shot above there are only 2 suitable selections for today and while the picture is not as clear as I would like I have also “Expanded” the stats for each runner to show their BSP and in-play low prices for all of their previous races to try and get a feel for the prices involved and how they ran

Click the picture to make it Bigger

I have zoomed in on the first runner to try and make it a bit clearer so you can see that Sol Del Mar hasn’t looked like winning in all three of its previous races coming 17th, 11th, and 10th. It is however ridden by Conor Hoban who, in his 2 previous rides convinced the traders to back him in running to low prices of 8.00 and 16.00 from B.S.P.s of 80.52 and 471.69 respectively.
With these facts in the back of my mind I am going to set the betangel software that I use for trading to back these 2 runners at best price 10 seconds before post time and to trade out at 50% tick drop during in-play
I will post the resulting profit or loss on a post tomorrow
The beauty of using the in running trading tool is that yesterdays figures can be called as they were posted on the day and without the days results incorporated into the stats so that you can actually do a real time analysis of the criteria knowing in advance the result

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Trading in-play, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections

With a 100% success yesterday the selections for this study as determined by the criteria defined on In Running Trading Tool website are as follows

  1. Viking Ruby 13:35 Worcester
  2. Affable 15:30 Naas
  3. Beyond Equal 17:20 Sandown

Viking Ruby has a forecast B.S.P of 13.00 and a “Short In Running” return of £17.00. A win rate percentage of 15.79% put it just within the parameters required
Affable has the biggest win rate percentage of 23.53% and a forecast B.S.P. of just 6.00. “Short In Running” returns are £3.50 and an average “Tick Drop” of 94!
Beyond Equal with a forecast B.S.P. of 11.00 and a profitable “Short In Running” figure of £3.50 as well as a 20% win rate percentage
As yesterday the complete form, previous B.S.P and in play low prices along with average race style and a host of other information is availale in the form of a spreadsheet that you can download from the link below.

inrunningtradingtool-24Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

Trading a Horse at 15 tick drop in-play 21 Aug update

Carrying on from yesterdays post I outlined the nuts and bolts of trading a horse in play after backing it at B.S.P. (Betfair Starting Price). This system of trading uses a specific set of criteria pulled from the In Running Trading Tool website.

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

Using this determined that there were 4 possible selections. These were
Wrenthorpe 15:20 Chester
Pablo Escobar 15:35 York
Robin Des Foret 16:35 Killarney
Cockalorum 16:45 York
These horses and their form were provided in the form of a spreadsheet which I posted for download and if you missed it you can download it below

inrunningtradingtool-23Download

Starting with Wrenthorpe
The B.S.P. forecast was 17.00 but actually went of at 32.00 making it move outside of the scope and therefore disqualifying it from the system but it did go on to trade inplay at a low of 16.5 with the 15 tick threshold at 18.00 would have made a successful trade. making a £7.10 profit to a £10.00 stake after commission deductions.
Pablo Escobar
The B.S.P. forecast was 21 just qualifying for the study but went off at a massive 65 15 ticks below this price is 28 but it went on to trade at 17. had we have initiated this trade when the market hit 28.00 we would have made a £12.41 profit to our £10.00 stake. The horse actually finished 8th out of 20, 10 lengths off the winner!
Robin Des Foret
With the lowest forecast B.S.P. yet at 13.00 this seemed as though we may have seen a bet placed ready for a trade but fortunately, in hindsight, the B.S.P. was in fact 35.76 making the 15 tick trade point 19.00. It only traded at an in-play low of 24.00 potentially losing us our £10.00 stake
Cockalorum
This was the last selection meeting the potential criteria and actually went off 3 ticks below the forecast B.S.P. of 17.00 at 16.70 trading inplay at a low of 4.2. Our 15 tick trade point was 9.6 making a £6.80 profit to a £10.00 stake.

In summary then of the 4 possible selections the only horse to actually start within the parameters was Cockalorum and did handsomely putting us £6.80 up on day 1.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

Ladbrokes Premiership Treble- Man City, Everton, and Crystal Palace All To Win Boosted to 9/1

This week Ladbrokes “Where the Nation Plays Pays” have created a high odds treble to entice the unsuspecting punted to bet with them.
The following games are in focus
Man City v Norwich City
Leeds Utd v Everton
Crystal Palace v Brentford
Looking at The Man City game first and week 1 didnt go to plan for the premiership champions losing away to Tottenham. Norwich City also lost 3-0 against Liverpool at Carrow Road in their first league match of 2021/2022. When the two sides last met in the Premier League , Manchester City came out on top 5-0 at Etihad Stadium in July 2020. It is hard to oppose Man City in this game especially having a first game defeat against them. They will be out to prove that they are still the league champions, Even more so with a packed stadium watching on.
Leeds Utd host Everton in the second of the three games and this is the game which may well throw the treble into doubt. Leeds are favourites to win this at odds of 2.2 with SkyBet and previous meetings of these two sides have seen Leeds win or draw 4 times out of the last 6. While Everton will be wanting to capture a top 4 lot in the legue Leeds Utd will be desperate to lift themselves from the bottom. The ever loyal Leeds fans may well be a factor as well.
Finally we come to a London derby between Crystal Palace who lost at Anfield last week 3-0 and the “mighty” Brentford who shocked Arsenal and probably the league in general by winning 2-0 in front of Jubilant home crowd. The recent form of Brentford in club friendlies have plainly boosted the players confidence and they will undoubtabley be up for a repeat performance this week.
All things considered and being the ever cautious punter that I am there will be other bets today with better probabilities, it is a Better Not verdict on this one.
Good Luck in whatever you decide and remember to bet responsibly.


Trading a Horse at 15 tick drop in-play

Of the many betting systems I have encountered in my quest for the “perfect retirement plan” the laying of horses at a shorter price than which you backed it at, is a common and often fatal “get rich quick” scheme many punters regret hearing about. But what if someone has put a lot of time and effort into finding runners that meet certain criteria and don’t actually kick the arse out of finding life changing profit, this might be a low risk opportunity to make your own little niche in the vast minefield that is trading horseracing. The someone I am talking about is a website called “In Running Trading Tool” and they have several schemes detailed on the site where you can use their stats to drill down to specific runners which stand every chance of fulfilling your expectations. To this end I am going to start yet another study into one of the systems listed and post my findings here on Bet-Or-Not so that you can Bet Or Not.
Before I get into the nuts and bolts of the system it may be worth explaining just what a “tick” is in terms of trading trading on the betting exchanges.
The odds on the exchanges (and bookmakers sites) are graduated and displayed as a decimal starting with 1.01 which equates to 1/1000 or “a thousand to one on” meaning bet £1000 to win a quid to 1000.00 which is 1000/1 or “bet a quid to win a thousand”. the graduations between these two extremes are known as ticks. Just to confuse matters further not all ticks are the same. For instance, 10 ticks above the odds of 1.01 are 1.1 (1/100), 10 ticks down from 1000.00 the odds are 950.00. So you can see that the closer you get to a 99.9% probability the closer the ticks are graduated. So if we are looking to lay a horse 15 ticks below the price we backed it at an odds on fav has to do a lot more work in terms of persuading the markets that it is going to win than a 100/1 ouside that perhaps just has to take the lead for a furlong to entice the markets to drop to 70/1 which is 15 ticks below. Its still not going to win but we will have taken our profit long before the finishing line. The all encompassing secret to this is identifying which runners are more likely to impress traders enough to warrant them backing the horse as it runs through the race.
The first thing that springs to mind is a “front runner” this is a horse that takes up the lead in a race and gives the impression that it has something to offer. While this can work sometimes I have just watched Every Breaking Wave lead from start to finish but only “DOBBED” at the last fence as the favourite chased him down. (Dobbing is another strategy where you back a horse at odds and lay it at odds whereby you double your money or lose the lot, hence the term Double Or Bust – another system for another study)
What the poeple at “In Running Trading” have done is narrow such runners down to starting prices, win percentages, and if the horse has been profitable in the past. With this work already done I can now settle down with this criteria and produce to you some profit and loss figures. On first look at this in a mid week race cards it seem that there are only going to be between 2 and 4 selections each day.
The criteria outlined on the website for this particular study are as follows

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

The screenshot above shows how you should have the “short in Running” Tab set up and you can see that there is one selection showing in the shot, Robin Des Foret running at Killarney at 16:35. The forecast odds are 13.00 which is well within the parameters. Its win strike rate is 26.67% and it has a short in run return of £57.00
In actual fact there are 4 selections for today and with this website you can export specific selections into an excel spreadsheet which contains the whole history of each horse including previous race prices and in play lows as well as the tick drop count for each race and a host of other information too vast to list in this post
To this end I have exported todays selections and provided the spreadsheet for you to download

inrunningtradingtool-23Download

Check back later or do your own study to see how these runners faired and what profit is possible



To get your own 7 day trial of the in running trading tool click here