Not the best bet of the day with only 8 tips I have just backed Love is Golden at betfair odds of 2.86 and put a lay order into the market at 2.56 in the 15:05 at Ascot
An average run style of 2 this horse has won twice over this distance and only traded in play poorly on good to firm going with best results on good to soft. Todays going at ascot is good and with this in mind i am looking at trading just 15 ticks.
It is one of the top 10 tipped horses of the day by the racing press and will subsequently start favourite and this is the first time Silvestre De Sousa has driven.
lets see what happens
Author Archives: shakey775
Todays Top Tipped Horses (Monday 30 Aug) No 1 Prop Forward
The first of todays top tipped horses is Prop Forward in the 13:30 at Wolverhampton
I have just Backed it at 2.02 on the betfair exchange for £10.00 and have put in a lay bet order for £10.98 at lay odds of 1.86 (15 ticks below 2.02)
Having run just twice the last time out at Bath the BSP was 2.28 at Bath on 4th August which it won (i-p low of 1.01) achieving a 113 tick drop. The time before that it ran at Salisbury with a BSP of 4.62 coming second with an in-play low of 1.11 – a total tick drop of 165 ticks
Its run style in both races was 1 which means that it prefers to run from the front
It has already reched odds of 1.7 meaning that before the race even started I have a 76p profit win or lose
All these stats and more are available on the in-running trading tool website Click the link below to get a 7 day free trial
Ladbrokes National League Treble Boost 7.5 to 9.0 Aldershot, Southend, and Chesterfield all to win
Is this a good bet or not?
Aldershot, currently 2nd from the bottom, are hosting Yeovil today and both teams are going into this game winless Aldershots only home game this season so far ended 0-1. Of the past 4 times these two sides have met Aldershot have won just one. Yeovil have won 2 – convincingly, and the other game ended 2-2. Aldershot have yet to break their scoring duck this season and the stats suggest that Yeovil with 1 goal in 1 game and that one being early only conceding 2 in the latter half of the second half might suggest a 1-1 draw at best for Aldershot.
Southend are playing away at Wealdstone and an away victory at Kings Lynn will likely boost confidence after losing at home to Stockport last time out. With just 1 goal each this season but a win for Southend so far this season might just give them the edge.
The last game in this treble sees an inform Chesterfield away at Kings Lynn in the game that is most likely to be a winning leg which means of course that it will be the only leg that loses in this topsy turvey sport. 2 wins and equal on points at the top of the league, Chesterfield have a great opportunity to overtake Dagenham to take top spot outright.
The win odds for these three teams are as follows
Aldershot 2.1
Chesterfield 1.95
Southend 1.73
Given the boosted odds of 9.0 the implied probability of this treble winning is just 11.11% making the probability of it losing 88.89%
Good luck in whatever you decide to do
Please gamble responsibly and in my opinion this would not be a responsible bet
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The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3 Results
Just 2 horses finished 1st yesterday from the 10 most tipped horses and these were Finest Sound and Find both running at Yarmouth. An absolute disastrous day as far as level bet wagering was concerned, however, as in the previous 2 days there was a 100% strike rate in the 15 tick drop system. This makes it 30 for 30. In the table below you can see that there were a couple of near things but the facts remain, from the 3 days trialled I have come away with profits each day.
| Horse | Meeting | Time | Tips | B.S.P. | i-p Low | 15 Tick | Result |
| Mahanakhen Power | Yarmouth | 13:30 | 7 | 3.81 | 1.6 | 3.05 | 2nd |
| Beltane | Beverley | 13:55 | 11 | 2.53 | 1.85 | 2.22 | 2nd |
| Finest Sound | Yarmouth | 14:05 | 8 | 2.96 | 1.01 | 2.66 | 1st |
| Find | Yarmouth | 14:40 | 11 | 1.34 | 1.01 | 1.19 | 1st |
| Firth of Clyde | Goodwood | 14:50 | 11 | 1.59 | 1.09 | 1.44 | 2nd |
| Epic Pass | Goodwood | 15:25 | 8 | 2.22 | 1.93 | 1.96 | 2nd |
| Rhoscolyn | Goodwood | 16:00 | 6 | 5.23 | 3.8 | 3.85 | 3rd |
| Just Fine | Goodwood | 16:35 | 7 | 2.36 | 1.88 | 2.06 | Last |
| Molly Shaw | Yarmouth | 17:00 | 7 | 3.82 | 2.2 | 3.05 | 4th |
| Cool Spirit | Beverley | 17:20 | 7 | 3.57 | 2.64 | 2.92 | 7th |
Todays’ top tipped horses are, as with previous posts in this study, exported from the In-Running Trading tool website in the form of an easy to view spreadsheet. Included in this information is each runners previous BSP and in-play low odds as well as its average tick drop for all races it has run in.
I have also included for your convenience my own 15 tick drop calculator simply enter your back odds and stake in the appropriate boxes and the odds for a 15 tickdrop and the required stake to obtain a level profit if the horse wins or loses will automatically be shown. The commission rate is set at 2% by default and this can also be changed by entering your own rate.
If you want to learn more on trading in play and want free access to all the stats provided by In Running Trading Tool you can get a free 7 day trial of the In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below.
The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3
With a 100% strike rate can this system make it 3 days in a row. Sundays are notoriously frustrating in the tipsters department – perhaps it is the drowning of their sorrows after yet another week of failed NAPs and felled favourites or just ashamed to show their faces but there never seems to be the same amount of tips submitted on Sundays. That being said when they band together in splendid isolation it seems that sometimes they know something. Yesterdays crop of 10 most tipped horses managed a win strike percentage of 60% but more importantly they ALL traded in play 15 ticks below their B.S.P. Admittedly the returns on these trades are minimal and just 1 failed trade would wipe out the days profit, but if we were to lay the trade at the same odds but with just a covering stake if the horse went on to win – which 7 did on Friday and 6 yesterday – the maths changes significantly. For Instance
The first horse in the list yesterday was Barn Owl which went of at a BSP of 3.05 and won
If we had laid to an equal profit at 15 ticks the lay stake would have been £11.30 at odd of 2.72 if we had backed it at £10.00 we would have come away with a £1.07 profit if the horse won or lost.
Alternatively if we had Underlaid with a lay stake of £10.20 if the horse won (which it did) the profit rises to £2.96 but breaks even if the horse loses, winning or losing nothing. Something to think about if this study pans out to be a viable system.
Anyway yesterdays full results are as follows
| Horse | Meeting | Time | Tips | BSP | i-p low | 15 tick odds | Result |
| Barn Owl | Beverley | 14:05 | 8 | 3.05 | 1.01 | 2.72 | 1st |
| Manaccan | Newmarket | 14:10 | 8 | 2.39 | 1.01 | 2.08 | 1st |
| Gladiatorial | Cartmel | 14:50 | 9 | 1.65 | 1.01 | 1.5 | 1st |
| Nagano | Goodwood | 15:00 | 10 | 1.75 | 1.09 | 1.6 | 2nd |
| Aquaman | Newmarket | 15:20 | 9 | 2.63 | 2.3 | 2.32 | 3rd |
| Live Your Dream | Newmarket | 15:55 | 9 | 1.99 | 1.82 | 1.84 | 4th |
| Fireworks | Beverley | 17:00 | 12 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1st |
| Bellstreet Bridie | Redcar | 17:40 | 10 | 2.42 | 1.6 | 2.12 | 2nd |
| Alqamar | Cartmel | 17:50 | 10 | 2.68 | 1.01 | 2.38 | 1st |
| Solid Stone | Windsor | 18:30 | 9 | 3.66 | 1.01 | 2.96 | 1st |
Totays top tipped horses are provided below as a spreadsheet exported from In Running Trading Tool and lists the runners, previous form, previous BSP and in-play lows, running style, and a whole host of other information.
Simply click download to have this information at your fingertips
Also provided to help you determine the 15 tick drop needed I provide my own Tick drop calculator
To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
To get the previous 2 blogs on this study click the link below
Yesterdays Post
It will open in a new window for your convenience.
To get a free 7 day trial of the information that is provided by In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Virginbet Fives full team
The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further
Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below
Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.
| Horse | Meeting | Time | Tips | BSP | i-p low | 15 tick odds | result |
| Silk Romance | Newmarket | 13:10 | 11 | 1.75 | 1.01 | 1.6 | 1st |
| Razzle Dazzle | Newmarket | 14:20 | 9 | 1.95 | 1.01 | 1.8 | 1st |
| Percy’s Pride | Ffos Las | 15:05 | 10 | 1.42 | 1.01 | 1.27 | 1st |
| Alhezabr | Ffos Las | 15:40 | 10 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 1.87 | 2nd |
| Asjad | Ffos Las | 16:10 | 13 | 1.79 | 1.12 | 1.64 | 2nd |
| Kentucky Rose | Hamilton | 16:35 | 9 | 3.92 | 1.1 | 3.14 | 2nd |
| Thunder Legend | Hamilton | 17:10 | 11 | 1.67 | 1.01 | 1.52 | 1st |
| Sweet Believer | Hamilton | 18:10 | 12 | 1.83 | 1.01 | 1.68 | 1st |
| Country Pyle | Goodwood | 18:23 | 14 | 2.68 | 1.13 | 2.32 | 3rd |
| Mahrajaan | Hamilton | 18:40 | 10 | 2.44 | 1.01 | 2.14 | 1st |
As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed!
I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below
To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Virginbet Fives
Virginbet Fives
In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections (Monday 23rd Aug 2021)
Using the same criteria even though one runner yesterday went out of scope on the B.S.P. there are two probable selections for today
Just to remind you of the criteria
1. Settings as Default
2. Open the ShortInRunning tab
3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.
4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate
4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.
5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5
The first is Café Sydney in the 15:15 at Brighton. With a win rate percentage of 16.67 and a forecasted B.S.P. of 13.00 Mollie Phillips has piloted this horse to a 65 tick drop at Leicester last time out and a massive 193 tick drop at its last time running here at Brighton. I think that it is worth mentioning the “Race style” column on the spreadsheet. This is represented by the numbers 1-4 with 1 being a front runner and 4 liking the veiw of the other horses arses! The average race style of Cafe Sydney is 3 but in its last 7 Runnings 3 of which it won, albeit on the all weather, the actual race style was 4 and only once did it not meet the 15 tick drop threshold and that was at Windsor on soft ground. This suggests that it likes other horses to make the running and then break from behind but doesn’t like soft going. With the going at Brighton this afternoon being good, hopes are high for this one.
The second selection on the list is Ballon Onabudget (who thinks these names up?) which has a forecasted B.S.P. of just 3.50 and looking at the betting markets is currently 3rd fav at 4.5 at SkyBet. A winrate % of 20.05% and running over 2 miles today instead of its usual 3ish miles (its last 9 outings have been between 2m6f and 3m2f. Its average race style is actually 3 but the last twice it ran over todays distance it was 2 hinting that at the shorter distance it likes to be in touch with the leader in the hopes of making that final break for it near the end. With only 5 runners in the race today I think that on previous form and with Johnathan Burke on board we may have a 1-2 clean up today lets face it I need it after yesterday.
As I have done previously I have provided the spreadsheet detailing these two runners form, race styles and starting odds etc. for download by clicking the link below
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Betornot 