This week I have only 3 players on my “Team” as I forgot to reveal them Monday and Tuesday
I have however drawn the Egyptian god of Goals again as well as Bowen and Murphy in the lunchtime kick-off between Newcastle Utd and West Ham Utd. Jarrod Bowen has scored 8 goals so far for West Ham sand he is in the starting line up. Jacob Murphy has appeared just 10 times in Newcastle’s starting line up and has Scored twice. Mo Salah has 28 first team starts ans scored a total of 19 goals in this seasons Premiership League matches
This is my last free go until the wonder wheel spins in my favour again and while frustrating has been fun. Going for corners this time and the Question is “Will each team get 4+ Corners” in the Wolves v Sheffield Utd Game tonight The stats from Soccerstats.com seem to point towards a yes vote with Wolves averaging 6.2 corners per game at home and Sheffield Utd being awarded an average of 4.33 per game when away. I have constructed a “Bet Builder” bet to enable me to fulfil this bet and it consists of “Over 3.5 home corners” (Odds of 1.08) coupled with “Over 3.5 Away Corners” (Odds of 1.75) Giving a total odds of 1.94 Close enough to 2.0 for this bet anyway.
The Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week starts at 12:30 due to the Royal Funeral taking place at Windsor this afternoon. This weeks bet is West Ham, Swansea, and Watford all to win. Starting with the Premiership clash between Newcastle and West Ham United, West Ham are on a bit of a crusade to play in the Champions League next season and another win today will see them take 3rd place in the league above Leicester City. West Ham have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 games. Newcastle has trouble winning at home actually achieving this just 4 times this season so far. Significant defeats against other top-of-the-table sides both home and away set a trend that West Ham will want to carry on especially as earlier in the season West Ham did lose to Newcastle 0-2. The odds for West Ham to win today are 2.05 with SkyBet. The second game on the list is the Swansea City v Wycombe Wanderers and Wycombe are in trouble! Swansea needs to win today to keep Brentford from leap-frogging them into 3rd spot from the top. Swansea’s recent form at home is not good and need a good win to bolster their morale. This will be an ideal psychological game to achieve that just as long as they don’t go into this match thinking that bottom side Wycombe have no teeth. Wycombe’s form away is dismal having won just 3 games all season. Watford are away to Luton this lunchtime and currently lie 2nd in the Championship with just a 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough, Watford have won 7 of their last 8 games – 5 of them “to nil” Luton have only won 2 of their last 4 home games losing to both Swansea and Barnsley. In the 41 games played by Watford this season they have scored 59 goals. If you couple this with the fact that Luton have conceded a total of 46 goals in their 40 matches it seem that Watford should retain their second place lead of 7 points in the league. This seems a fair bet and would see SkyBet paying out twice in two weeks! Never a bad thing.
The fourth bet this week was a spur of the moment boosted bet “Harry Kane to have 1+ Shot on target Boosted from 1/6 to even money. – A qualifying bet if ever there was one. There was another bet on offer with Kane to have a shot on target in both halves which was 4.0 (3/1) which as it turns out would have come in as Kane scored both goals one in each half. But it does just go to show that these shots on target bets are dangerous . There were many offerings last night involving prominent Tottenham players to have shots on target – in the end there were only 3 shots on target from Tottenham and Kane scored from two of them Still all’s well that ends well and this one won where many have lost. Happy days for me as it has reduced my loss a bit this week
The trouble with my job is that I am so knackered when I get home I really only have time for 1 blog post and I have been doing these Paddy Power fun bets. On the back of these I have also been using the research to put my “road to cheltenham” series of bets together ( so if you have been following the P.P. bets you will know I am doing not so good this week!) The freebet No 3 this week corresponds to Beat the drop round 3 question 1 Two questions for the struggle to stay out of the Championship relegation zone. Both Rotherham and Coventry vitally need a victory tonight so it should be a very entertaining game. Coventry might even give away another penalty if they did it would be Number 13 and Number 2 against Rotherham. I am sure the Rotherham players will have been told what buttons to press! (Might just be worth a small side bet!) Anyway onto the facts. The odds for BTTS “Yes” are 1.8 so a short wait in play for the odds to get to 2.0 10 minutes should be enough to see that happen. Of the 19 home games played by Rotherham they have only managed to keep a “clean sheet” 3 times (Bristol, Derby and Sheffield) and out of Coventry’s’ 20 away games only once! (Barnsley) Rotherham has not had a 0-0 draw this season at home and for Coventry away just one (Barnsley again) As I have mentioned above Coventry’s discipline in the penalty area is atrocious giving away 12 penalties and scoring 2 own Goals. Rotherham have conceded 6 concecutive times at home and have conceded at least 1 goal in 84% of there total home games this season. As for Coventry City, they have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 18 away matches. This game may well end 1-1, I am going to go with the “Will Both Teams Score? Yes” and if either team win “3 or more to nil” I will be very upset! I will post my bet slip when the odds reach 2.0
As you can see from the bet slip I only had to wait 9 minutes for the odds to get to 2.0 for all the good it did🤣
The voodoo is on me this week but I still have 2 more attempts before my money runs out. Todays question is “Will Reading win the match?” Odds for a home win tonight are 2.1 The Draw is 3.25 and Cardiff to win 3.6 with Paddy Power. Reading have won 3 of their last 4 home games whereas Cardiff have won just one away game from the same amount of games. When these two teams have clashed in the past they have, out of 15 games both won 4 times and drawn 7 times! With a 40% “won to Nil” rate at home and Cardiff’s drought of away goals recently (2 goals from 4 away games) this could be a good oppertunity for Reading to sneak 3 point closer to those coveted play-off places. All this having been said the stats are all pointing towards a home win given Readings present home form so will use my 4th free go on “Yes Reading will win!!
Do you ever get the feeling that the players know your bet and conspire to completely F*@# it up? Manchester City invariably score first!!!! No problem I still have 3 more free goes Mr Paddy Power!! As you can see below I have created myself a real dilemma Two questions for the struggle to stay out of the Championship relegation zone. Both Rotherham and Coventry vitally need a victory tonight so it should be a very entertaining game. Coventry might even give away another penalty if they did it would be Number 13 and Number 2 against Rotherham. I am sure the Rotherham players will have been told what buttons to press! (Might just be worth a small side bet!) Anyway onto the facts. The odds for BTTS “Yes” are 1.8 so a short wait in play for the odds to get to 2.0 10 minutes should be enough to see that happen. Of the 19 home games played by Rotherham they have only managed to keep a “clean sheet” 3 times (Bristol, Derby and Sheffield) and out of Coventry’s’ 20 away games only once! (Barnsley) Rotherham has not had a 0-0 draw this season at home and for Coventry away just one (Barnsley again) As I have mentioned above Coventry’s discipline in the penalty area is atrocious giving away 12 penalties and scoring 2 own Goals. Rotherham have conceded 6 concecutive times at home and have conceded at least 1 goal in 84% of there total home games this season. As for Coventry City, they have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 18 away matches. This game may well end 1-1, I am going to go with the “Will Both Teams Score? Yes” and if either team win “3 or more to nil” I will be very upset! I will post my bet slip when the odds reach 2.0
With Sheffield not coming out to play last night I just used up one of my free entries into the “Reverse Beat The Drop” for Paddy Power Pariahs. So onto round 2 As you can see above tonight’s question involves The Mighty Man City v Doubtful Dortmund over in Germany. This is the second leg the first having been played last week with a 2-1 win in Manchester. Although at-home Man City was leading at halftime thanks to a 19th-minute goal. This is most definitely a trend with Man City as they have been leading at Half-Time in all of their Champions League away games this season except for Porto in which the game itself ended goalless. Dortmund is 7/2 to win this game which seems a bit excessive considering their Champions league record and the fact that they are at home they are however not exactly known for early goals scoring just 25% of their home goals in the first half. As with all of these questions the “Yes” refers to just one of three outcomes – winning at halftime, whereas a “No” answer covers both the draw and losing at halftime, that being said “Yes” gets the vote
With last night’s bet ending in a complete and utter waste of research time I have just done another research job on a Paddy Power “Beat the drop” question “Will both teams score?” in the Sheffield v Swansea game this evening Starting with the home side, Sheffield have scored in all four of their last 4 home games, which includes a 5-0 drubbing of Cardiff! In fact, they have failed to score just 5 times in this season’s 19 games. There have been 3 0-0 draws at home this season and lost to Nil just twice. Their place 2nd from the bottom can be wholely attributed to their dreadful away form getting just 14 points from 21 away games. Their home scoring average is a shade over 1 at 1.05 Their conceding rate at home however is less than one at 0.74 goals per game On to Swansea and they have scored in all 3 of their away games against the other teams in the bottom 4 of the championship, and have actually scored in 80% of all of their away games this season. A slightly concerning fact is that they have failed to score in 2 of their lastest 4 away games but in view of the fact that losing a play-off place would be a danger should they lose tonight, these two goalless games could just be a blip and not a trend! A victory tonight would put them 4 points clear of Barnsley in fifth place thereby piling the pressure on Barnsley to try and keep Bournemouth at bay. As I am looking to place these bets at 2.0 (evens) or better to keep doubling my stake. Goal timings will be vital as many of these questions will involve in-play bets due to having to wait for the odds to get to my minimum point. This bet is no exception and whilst the odds pre-kick-off are just below 2.0 there is always the danger of an early goal to upset the movement of the market. To this end, I will now look at the probable time of the 1st goal and which team will score it. Sheffield has had two 4th minute goals this season the first being against Barnsley when they lost 1-2 and the second was last Monday against Cardiff. Generally speaking, though they tend to score their majority of goals between 31 minutes and 75 minutes 10 out of the 20 home goals were scored in this time segment). If the pre-match odds remain as they are then 5 minutes should be enough time for the odds to rise up to 2.0 With Swansea being the favorites to win this game a very early goal by Sheffield would stop the market dead and make this bet untenable. (A note to critics on this point is that my aim is to do the game backwards and still think that both teams will score but need the evens odds to do this. With “beat the drop” odds don’t matter) Swansea scoring first would not necessarily affect the odds significantly but the rise would be slower.
For those of you who follow my “Beat The Drop in Reverse” series of bets, this will be bet No 1 this week so apologies as I will be copying a lot of this blog.
So Paddy Power has stopped me from doing the”Beat The Drop” game – I will try not to sink into the depths of despair, and let’s face it I still have the Wonder Wheel to keep me entertained once a day. Speaking of which I won £1.25 on it last night Not being able to do beat the drop sparked a thought that instead of sticking my considerable winnings on three-legged nag I could do the Beat the Drop backwards. Instead of starting with a thousand quid and trying to keep it I will start with 25p (This will give me 5 free goes at it) and work up through 12 questions by the end winning £1024.00 (if you halve £1000 12 times it reduces to 24.4p Question 1 is “Will Both Teams Score?” in the Sheffield Utd v Swansea Game tonight. Pre-kick-off odds for BTTS are “Yes” 1.95 and “No” 1.75 at the time of writing this. Starting with the home side, Sheffield have scored in all four of their last 4 home games, which includes a 5-0 drubbing of Cardiff! In fact, they have failed to score just 5 times in this season’s 19 games. There have been 3 0-0 draws at home this season and lost to Nil just twice. Their place 2nd from the bottom can be wholely attributed to their dreadful away form getting just 14 points from 21 away games. Their home scoring average is a shade over 1 at 1.05 Their conceding rate at home however is less than one at 0.74 goals per game On to Swansea and they have scored in all 3 of their away games against the other teams in the bottom 4 of the championship, and have actually scored in 80% of all of their away games this season. A slightly concerning fact is that they have failed to score in 2 of their lastest 4 away games but in view of the fact that losing a play-off place would be a danger should they lose tonight, these two goalless games could just be a blip and not a trend! A victory tonight would put them 4 points clear of Barnsley in fifth place thereby piling the pressure on Barnsley to try and keep Bournemouth at bay. As I am looking to place these bets at 2.0 (evens) or better to keep doubling my stake. Goal timings will be vital as many of these questions will involve in-play bets due to having to wait for the odds to get to my minimum point. This bet is no exception and whilst the odds pre-kick-off are just below 2.0 there is always the danger of an early goal to upset the movement of the market. To this end, I will now look at the probable time of the 1st goal and which team will score it. Sheffield has had two 4th minute goals this season the first being against Barnsley when they lost 1-2 and the second was last Monday against Cardiff. Generally speaking, though they tend to score their majority of goals between 31 minutes and 75 minutes 10 out of the 20 home goals were scored in this time segment). If the pre-match odds remain as they are then 5 minutes should be enough time for the odds to rise up to 2.0 With Swansea being the favorites to win this game a very early goal by Sheffield would stop the market dead and make this bet untenable. (A note to critics on this point is that my aim is to do the game backwards and still think that both teams will score but need the evens odds to do this. With “beat the drop” odds don’t matter) Swansea scoring first would not necessarily affect the odds significantly but the rise would be slower.
For those of you who follow my “Road to Cheltenham” series of bets, this will be bet No 2 this week so apologies as I will be copying a lot of this blog.
Betornot 