Patrick Bamford to have 1 or more shots on target has been boosted from 1.5 to 2.0! Are Paddy Power giving money away or does it go deeper? lets take a look. Patrick Bamfords is Leeds Utd’s first choice striker this season having started in 30 games. He has scored 14 times in his Premier League starts making him Leeds Utds’ top goalscorer. He averages 3.3 shots per game getting an average of 1.4 on target. In his last 3 starts he has been subbed off . After 35 Mins v Chelsea, After 77 mins v Fulham and after 65 mins v Sheffield Utd. His Shots on target stats for the last 5 games are as Follows v Sheffield Utd – 1 v Fulham – 1 v Chelsea – 0 v West Ham – 0 v Aston Villa – 0
With only 2 shots on Target in the last 5 games this could well be a “Bettornot” bet
SkyBet Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week features the Liverpool, Bournemouth and Norwich games all starting at 3pm Liverpool host Aston Villa and is a crucial game for Liverpool for a Champions League place coming off the back of 4 consecutive defeats at home Klopps team will be looking to towards ending this drought. With only teams below them in the league left to play at home, winning today would create an ideal springboard to achieve that aim. Liverpool’s home goals average is 1.47 giving a slight statistical advantage over Aston Villas away goal average of 1.27. The Villa do not have a good away record playing teams higher in the league winning only one against leicester City. Liverpool will want to forget the humiliating defeat in the previous meeting with Villa and set the record straight, 7-2 is a very good incentive. I think that Liverpools ability is coming back to the fore now as have hit form in the Premier League, beating Arsenal 3-0 and Wolves 1-0 in their last 2 matches away.
The next game in the troublesome trio is Bournemouth v Coventry City. My wifes’ family all support Coventry as do some of the guys at work and this analysis may seem a bit disloyal to them but I look at stats and Coventry Citys’ away record is something dreadful only winning 2 of their away games this season and “Losing to Nil” 8 times form the 19 games they travelled. Bournemouth on the other hand have picked up 16 points from their last 8 games and are on a charge for those play-off places that are so tantalisingly close. We are getting towards the end of the season where nearly every kick of the ball counts and Coventry City just don’t play well away from home.
Lastly is the Derby County v Norwich City where Norwich could clinch the title today if they win and and both Brentford and Swansea fail to win. Derby have picked up just 5 points from their last 8 games as opposed to Norwich City gaining 4 times that figure. Offensively Norwich City have scored 64 goas from the 40 games this season , concedeing just 28 whereas Derby have scored just 30 from the same number of games. Skybet have offered, as always, a cop out for this game, giving alternatives in the guise of Liverpool, Bournemouth to win and Derby to Draw (12/1) and Liverpool, Bournemouth and Derby to win (16/1).
The popularity of boosted trebles is undoubtedly one of the best money spinners for the bookies yet. Enhanced trebles and shots on target are just two “featured” bets offered by bookies which are designed to take your money. The average punter will only see the odds and perhaps 2 “bankers” and think perhaps the third team will win and willingly give the bookies their money I have just done a blog post on paddy powers friday night special (read it here) which features Fulham The conclusion to this post was that If the bookies put fulham, at home, in a “featured specially boosted just for the punter enhanced treble” And if the other teams won they would have only had to pay out twice in sixteen times. If we take the average acca at odds of 6/1 and if the average bet is £10 then you would have staked £160 but won just £120. That is some profit margin for the bookies!! With just a quick look at the bookmakers sites I found the following had all put Fulham in their “Special” bets tonight. Paddy Power Betfair Boylesports, Coral BetVictor. All I can say is I hope Fulham Win but I doubt it. Another bonza payday for the bookies!!
Fulham host Wolves tonight at 8pm and they need some points!! Fulham’s recent home form is nothing to write home about Losing the last 3 and only beating bottom side Sheffield Utd by a goal to nil. Wolverhampton have not however faired much better of late winning one drawing 2 and losing 1 in their last 4 away games. Fulham’s form against teams similarly placed around Wolverhampton’s 14th place in the league have ended in draws or losses in fact they have only won home games this season against the two teams below them.
Championship 2nd placed Watford host Reading who are chasing a play-off place. Watford at home recently have won to nil in all four of their most recent games. Conversely Reading away games have 1 win, 2 draws and a loss to nil against relegation bound Rotherham. Reading are however not without goal scoring ability and are only 1 goal behind Watfords 57 goals from 40 games This one could be close and probably back BTTS rather than a match outcome.
In The Scottish Championship, League leaders Hearts are at home to bottom side Alloa Athletic. Even though Hearts are top of the league by some considerable lead of their last 8 home and away games they have only won twice. Alloa have lost 4 of their last 8 games but have managed to score at least once in all but one of those making this game a BTTS bet more attractive than an outcome bet.
Just as a final note If bookmakers had put Fulham playing at home in their enhanced accas’ AND if the other teams in the accas won they would have only had to pay out twice out of 16 times!!! 🤔🤔🤔
The Masters starts today and SkyBet are offering the following promotion “Place a £5+ bet on the ‘Hotshots’ market at The Masters and get a £1 free bet for every birdie or better your player makes during the first round of the tournament” By “hotshots” they mean enhanced singles only and each player has been boosted by at least a point. Professional Golf is something I know absolutely Nothing about. So what if its a sport somebody will have compiled stats. There are a few stats sites for golf and most of them want paying for their work but The PGA tour site seems to have the basics and is completely and utterly free and completely and utterly confusing ! I will share with you the information Sky Bet gives:
Round 1 2020 was a record low score at the Masters
D.Johnson: 6 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2020
J.Thomas: 7 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2020
B.Dechambeau: 9 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2019
Justin Thomas is my pick for this years Masters with SkyBet because his round 1 scoring average (which is what we are looking for) after playing 18 first rounds is 69.44. His 7 Birdies/Eagles last November has conviced me that my fiver is as good on him as anyone. How can anyone predict who will win a game of golf????
No goals at all last night in the Brentford debacle means I fell yet again at Q3 Question 1 in round 3 will be the serie A game between Juventus and Napoli and the all important question is Will Juventus Win As with everything “Beat the Drop” what seems to be a two outcome conundrum this one has 3 actual results: 1. Juventus Win 2. Juventus Draw 3 . Juventus Lose With both teams level on points in the league, these two sides are of equal ability and I dont know why I picked the question 🙄 Anyway, research is king so here we go! Juventus’ recent home form has seen them win 3 games convincingly and perhaps more importantly lost their most recent home game “to nil” against Benevento. Napolis’ last 4 away games have seen them victorious against AS Roma and AC Milan (both to nil) a 3-3 draw against 9th placed Sassuolo and a 4-2 defeat 3rd placed Atalanta shows that they are not afraid of hitting the back of the net. Napoli have also gained more league points (19)than Juventus (14) over the last 8 games. Juventus have some squad problems with 2 players Suspended, 1 out injured, and 2 out with the Chinese Kung Flu. Napolis’ captain and main goalscorer is also out with a muscle strain. This should be an entertaining game and if the question was will both teams score then I think it would be a no-brainer yes. As things go I am going to go with the majority of outcomes and put my vote for “No Juventus won’t win”.
SkyBet are offering the “Game of 2 halves” promotion tonight in the Champions League fixture between Man City and Dortmund tonight. This means that if you place a £5.00 in-play bet in the first half you will be credited with a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half. This free bet however has the same conditions as all their other free bets so can be saved. This is the first leg of the quarter finals and as such Dortmund being the away side will be all out to score as many away goals as possible tonight to gain that all important away goal advantage. They have scored at least one goal in every one of their Champions League games so far averaging 2.13 per match The current odds at Skybet for BTTS (Yes) is 2.0 but I need to place this in-play and may have to wait if skybet reduce the odds just before kick off A concerning stat that may put you off following my lead on this is Manchester City have Won to Nil in this competition in 75% of their games and in all but one of their home games. This however is countered by Dortmund having never lost to nil in this competition. A score draw tonight would give goals advantage in the second leg next week to Dortmund. Stay close to find out how I do
Tonight Brentford host Birmingham City in a game that is important to both teams. Paddy Power has posed 3 questions appertaining to this match 1. Will both teams score 2. Will Brentford be winning at half-time 3. Will there be 3 or more goals in the match All three are good ones and there are more listed I have decided to go for the over 2.5 goals question as it will give me a chance to explain my research methods. As always it is best to ascertain which team is most likely to win and the match odds heavily favour 3rd place Brentford with best odds of 1.62 (61.7% Implied Probability) to win the match. These odds suggest that a Brentford victory will be quite convincing as the BTTS odds are also weighted towards No at Best Odds of 1.78. However The Odds of Brentford winning to nil are 2.45 which implies a probability of only 40.8%. This suggests that while Brentford should win comfortably there is a better than even chance that Birmingham might score! This odds based research is most definitely giving mixed messages and before I move onto the actual stats I will look at the correct score markets just to confuse things further. In the correct score markets I look predominantly at score lines that have less than 3 goals and these are as follows Score Odds 1-0 6.6 (15.2% Implied Probability) 2-0 7.6 (13.2% Implied Probability) 1-1 9.0 (11.1% Implied Probability) 0-0 11.0 (9.1% Implied Probability) 0-1 17.0 (5.6% Implied Probability) 0-2 48.0 (2.1% Implied Probability) These probabilities added together gives an overall probability of 56.3% Which in actual fact returns odds of 1.78 – exactly the odds of a No in the BTTS market! This hasn’t really clarified the issue. Actual goal based stats are invaluable as you saw yesterday as relying on bookmaker odds, which carry such an overround in their favour, are good only to get a general feel for the bet. I will be looking at the over 2.5 goals stats to start with and can see straight away that Brentford, when playing at home average an over 2.5 goal rate of 56% with an average home scoring rate of 1.94 goals per game. They also have a conceding rate of 1.06. In layman’s terms this gives the impression that the score could well be 2-1. I have not ignored Birmingham City’s ability (or lack of it) and as miniscule as it is, it is still relevant and their average goals scored when playing away is 0.74 If we couple this with Brentford’s 1.94 it gives us an average of 2.68 goals – over 2.5. If you like this please click my like button on twitter or on here.
Start of the new week brings a new multitude of opportunities to try and end up in profit as well as gaining another £5.00 free bet towards next years Cheltenham festival. Earlier today I blogged about doing research for Paddy Powers “Beat the Drop” promotion and came across something which had me thinking about my first bet this week. Middlesbrough are hosting Watford as I write this and the question Paddy Power posed was “will both teams score?” Research suggested that they probably would but the odds to qualify for a free bet are 2.0 and the odds offered by SkyBet were 1.83 If we look at the soccerstats page for the game on the right hand side near the bottom is a chart names Goal times and below that is another chart of similar composition showing goal times relevent to home and away. The odds while in play for BTTS behave in a consistent way with the “Yes” odds steadily increasing and “No” odds decreasing. Using the charts on soccerstats I determined that the probability of a goal being scored before the odds rose to 2.0 were minimal and in fact there was a probability that all would be well until about 25 – 30 mins. It only took about 5 minutes for the odds to get to 2.0 and I snapped my bet on. – My phone has just tinged and lo and behold Watford have just scored in the 32nd Minute. Just hoping that the most likely time for Middlesbrough to score will be in the last 3rd of the second Half but anytime between now and the final whistle will do 😁🤞
Betornot 