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The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 6 Bet 2

A change of tac for this bet for no other reason than a bit of variety. This does not mean however that no research has been done, I have looked at the form mainly for Manchester City in their away game Half time/Full time results focusing mainly on the number of times they have been leading at half time.
Of the 15 away games played this season Manchester City have been leading at half time 8 times and all of them have been “to Nil” this is a percentage of 53%. If we now look at the percentage of Aston Villa losing at Half time we see that it is nearly 30% and their first half goals scored average is just 35% of all home goals scored suggesting that when they do score goals at home they are usually scored in the second half. Having convinced my self that Manchester will more often than not be leading at half time I took a look at the previous meetings of these two sides and in the previous 3 games, 1 league game and 1 FA cup tie Man City were leading to nil at half time only conceding 1 goal in the 90th minute to a penalty in the league game and leading 2-1 in a league cup tie at half time which was the final score.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Freebet Week 5 Summary

Not very good this week as you are about to find out!
Bet 1 was BTTS “Yes” in the game between Brighton and Everton in which absolutely no goals were scored at all! How can the managers be blamed for poor performing players. I have always said its the players who should be sacked, just like any other job. I lost a fiver because of the players not the managers!!!
Bet 2 went the same way in the Sheffield v Swansea game where at least Swansea came out to play scoring 2, Sheffield however had just 1 shot on target the whole game! Another fiver lost!!
Bet 3 had to get better and a punt at the over 2.5 goals market in the Carlise v Crawley game and with 2 goals in the first half the omens were good – Not!!! I am not sure either team came out onto the pitch in the second half – Another fiver in Mr Skys pocket!!
Happy effing days Bet 4 was a success “Kane to have a shot on target” was a skybet boosted bet with the required odds, at least he earns his money – sort of!
The Soccer Saturday Price Boost, which is always worth a punt, actually wasn’t this week as it failed in the most direst of ways as West Ham lost to Newcastle, Swansea nearly won, and Watford didn’t score but Luton Did.
Total weekly Loss of £20.00 and when I add the total Profit from previous weeks makes it a campaign loss of £13.28. with only 1 x £5.00 free bet added to give a total of £60.00 in free bets for cheltenham next year

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 6 Bet 1

It doesn’t seem like it was 6 weeks since Cheltenham, they say time goes faster the older you get.
Tonight Leeds Host Liverpool and yes you guessed it I will be Putting a BTTS “Yes” bet on in-play. Two reasons, at the moment BTTS odds are just 1.5 so I will be watching the game and the odds until they reach 2.0 the second reason is that SkyBet is using the game to offer their “Game of Two Halves” promotion which means that if you bet £5.00 in play at odds of 1.5 or better then you get a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half, but as with all SkyBet free bets they never expire 😁.
Onto tonights bet though, Leeds Utd have scored in only two of their last home games But their average goals per game is 1.4, also only 7 of their 21 home goals have been scored in the first half making it a distinct possibility that the odds could indeed get to 2.0 as Liverpool’s first half scoring rate when they are away is even worse than Leeds’ at 28% or only 8 out of 29 away goals scored in the first half, their scoring rate per game when away however is 1.92. I will be hoping that both teams score their first goals between minutes 46 and 61. If there is an early goal then I will be taking the odds if they are 1.5 or better to secure the free bet. If the odds settle after the first goal below 1.5 then contingency plan A will kick in and a Over 3.5 bet should be at 2.0 or better and usually with early goals come more goals. The last time these two played each other the score was 4-3 and Salah had a hat-trick with two penalties.

click this image to go to skybet (I don’t get paid for this)

Virgin Bet Fives of the Week Specials.

As far as I can work out, each week there are 5 random players selected from all players and some special bets produced
The e-mail I got yesterday has the following players listed

Attached to this were a series of special bets with odds
Here are the bets

With only 15 minutes to kick off of the first game it is too late to do anything about it now but I will list the players stats below and see if anything would have been won from the bets

Adama Traore (Wolves Striker)
Scored late against Fulham last weekend, his first of the season.
He has made 22 first team appearances this season and scored once with an match average of 0.3 shots on target.
Jarrod Bowen (West Ham Midfield)
Eight goals this season including the winner v Leicester recently
He has made 26 first team appearances this season and scored 8 times with an match average of 0.5 shots on target.
Edinson Cavani (Man Utd Striker)
Scored a diving header against Spurs before netting in the Euorpa League on Thursday
He has made 11 first team appearances this season and scored 7 times with an match average of 1.0 shots on target.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool Striker)
Opening day hat-trick in the reverse fixture earlier in the season
He has made 28 first team appearances this season and scored 19 times with an match average of 1.6 shots on target.
Alex Lacazette (Arsenal Striker)
Scored Twice in last two games including great team goal v sheffield Utd
He has made 21 first team appearances this season and scored 13 times with an match average of 1.5 shots on target.

The Bets
A goal or more each 150/1
One or more shots on target each 4/1
Each to have 2 or more shots on target 100/1
3 or more combined goals 13/10
5 or more combined goals 13/2
9 or more combined shots on target 7/4
11 or more combined shots on target 5/1

VirginBet “Fives”

This week I have only 3 players on my “Team” as I forgot to reveal them Monday and Tuesday

I have however drawn the Egyptian god of Goals again as well as Bowen and Murphy in the lunchtime kick-off between Newcastle Utd and West Ham Utd.
Jarrod Bowen has scored 8 goals so far for West Ham sand he is in the starting line up.
Jacob Murphy has appeared just 10 times in Newcastle’s starting line up and has Scored twice.
Mo Salah has 28 first team starts ans scored a total of 19 goals in this seasons Premiership League matches

Paddy Power “Beat the Drop” in Reverse Round 5 Bet 1

This is my last free go until the wonder wheel spins in my favour again and while frustrating has been fun.
Going for corners this time and the Question is “Will each team get 4+ Corners” in the Wolves v Sheffield Utd Game tonight
The stats from Soccerstats.com seem to point towards a yes vote with Wolves averaging 6.2 corners per game at home and Sheffield Utd being awarded an average of 4.33 per game when away. I have constructed a “Bet Builder” bet to enable me to fulfil this bet and it consists of “Over 3.5 home corners” (Odds of 1.08) coupled with “Over 3.5 Away Corners” (Odds of 1.75) Giving a total odds of 1.94 Close enough to 2.0 for this bet anyway.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 bet 5

The Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week starts at 12:30 due to the Royal Funeral taking place at Windsor this afternoon. This weeks bet is West Ham, Swansea, and Watford all to win.
Starting with the Premiership clash between Newcastle and West Ham United, West Ham are on a bit of a crusade to play in the Champions League next season and another win today will see them take 3rd place in the league above Leicester City. West Ham have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 games. Newcastle has trouble winning at home actually achieving this just 4 times this season so far. Significant defeats against other top-of-the-table sides both home and away set a trend that West Ham will want to carry on especially as earlier in the season West Ham did lose to Newcastle 0-2. The odds for West Ham to win today are 2.05 with SkyBet.
The second game on the list is the Swansea City v Wycombe Wanderers and Wycombe are in trouble! Swansea needs to win today to keep Brentford from leap-frogging them into 3rd spot from the top. Swansea’s recent form at home is not good and need a good win to bolster their morale. This will be an ideal psychological game to achieve that just as long as they don’t go into this match thinking that bottom side Wycombe have no teeth. Wycombe’s form away is dismal having won just 3 games all season.
Watford are away to Luton this lunchtime and currently lie 2nd in the Championship with just a 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough, Watford have won 7 of their last 8 games – 5 of them “to nil” Luton have only won 2 of their last 4 home games losing to both Swansea and Barnsley. In the 41 games played by Watford this season they have scored 59 goals. If you couple this with the fact that Luton have conceded a total of 46 goals in their 40 matches it seem that Watford should retain their second place lead of 7 points in the league.
This seems a fair bet and would see SkyBet paying out twice in two weeks! Never a bad thing.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 bet 4

The fourth bet this week was a spur of the moment boosted bet “Harry Kane to have 1+ Shot on target Boosted from 1/6 to even money. – A qualifying bet if ever there was one.
There was another bet on offer with Kane to have a shot on target in both halves which was 4.0 (3/1) which as it turns out would have come in as Kane scored both goals one in each half. But it does just go to show that these shots on target bets are dangerous . There were many offerings last night involving prominent Tottenham players to have shots on target – in the end there were only 3 shots on target from Tottenham and Kane scored from two of them
Still all’s well that ends well and this one won where many have lost. Happy days for me as it has reduced my loss a bit this week

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 bet 3

The trouble with my job is that I am so knackered when I get home I really only have time for 1 blog post and I have been doing these Paddy Power fun bets. On the back of these I have also been using the research to put my “road to cheltenham” series of bets together ( so if you have been following the P.P. bets you will know I am doing not so good this week!)
The freebet No 3 this week corresponds to Beat the drop round 3 question 1
Two questions for the struggle to stay out of the Championship relegation zone. Both Rotherham and Coventry vitally need a victory tonight so it should be a very entertaining game. Coventry might even give away another penalty if they did it would be Number 13 and Number 2 against Rotherham. I am sure the Rotherham players will have been told what buttons to press! (Might just be worth a small side bet!)
Anyway onto the facts. The odds for BTTS “Yes” are 1.8 so a short wait in play for the odds to get to 2.0 10 minutes should be enough to see that happen.
Of the 19 home games played by Rotherham they have only managed to keep a “clean sheet” 3 times (Bristol, Derby and Sheffield) and out of Coventry’s’ 20 away games only once! (Barnsley) Rotherham has not had a 0-0 draw this season at home and for Coventry away just one (Barnsley again) As I have mentioned above Coventry’s discipline in the penalty area is atrocious giving away 12 penalties and scoring 2 own Goals.
Rotherham have conceded 6 concecutive times at home and have conceded at least 1 goal in 84% of there total home games this season. As for Coventry City, they have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 18 away matches.
This game may well end 1-1, I am going to go with the “Will Both Teams Score? Yes” and if either team win “3 or more to nil” I will be very upset!
I will post my bet slip when the odds reach 2.0

As you can see from the bet slip I only had to wait 9 minutes for the odds to get to 2.0 for all the good it did🤣

Paddy Power “Beat the Drop” in reverse Round 4 Bet 1

Bloody Rotherham!!

The voodoo is on me this week but I still have 2 more attempts before my money runs out. Todays question is “Will Reading win the match?”
Odds for a home win tonight are 2.1 The Draw is 3.25 and Cardiff to win 3.6 with Paddy Power. Reading have won 3 of their last 4 home games whereas Cardiff have won just one away game from the same amount of games. When these two teams have clashed in the past they have, out of 15 games both won 4 times and drawn 7 times!
With a 40% “won to Nil” rate at home and Cardiff’s drought of away goals recently (2 goals from 4 away games) this could be a good oppertunity for Reading to sneak 3 point closer to those coveted play-off places.
All this having been said the stats are all pointing towards a home win given Readings present home form so will use my 4th free go on “Yes Reading will win!!