The Masters starts today and SkyBet are offering the following promotion “Place a £5+ bet on the ‘Hotshots’ market at The Masters and get a £1 free bet for every birdie or better your player makes during the first round of the tournament” By “hotshots” they mean enhanced singles only and each player has been boosted by at least a point. Professional Golf is something I know absolutely Nothing about. So what if its a sport somebody will have compiled stats. There are a few stats sites for golf and most of them want paying for their work but The PGA tour site seems to have the basics and is completely and utterly free and completely and utterly confusing ! I will share with you the information Sky Bet gives:
Round 1 2020 was a record low score at the Masters
D.Johnson: 6 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2020
J.Thomas: 7 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2020
B.Dechambeau: 9 Birdies/Eagles in Round 1 2019
Justin Thomas is my pick for this years Masters with SkyBet because his round 1 scoring average (which is what we are looking for) after playing 18 first rounds is 69.44. His 7 Birdies/Eagles last November has conviced me that my fiver is as good on him as anyone. How can anyone predict who will win a game of golf????
No goals at all last night in the Brentford debacle means I fell yet again at Q3 Question 1 in round 3 will be the serie A game between Juventus and Napoli and the all important question is Will Juventus Win As with everything “Beat the Drop” what seems to be a two outcome conundrum this one has 3 actual results: 1. Juventus Win 2. Juventus Draw 3 . Juventus Lose With both teams level on points in the league, these two sides are of equal ability and I dont know why I picked the question 🙄 Anyway, research is king so here we go! Juventus’ recent home form has seen them win 3 games convincingly and perhaps more importantly lost their most recent home game “to nil” against Benevento. Napolis’ last 4 away games have seen them victorious against AS Roma and AC Milan (both to nil) a 3-3 draw against 9th placed Sassuolo and a 4-2 defeat 3rd placed Atalanta shows that they are not afraid of hitting the back of the net. Napoli have also gained more league points (19)than Juventus (14) over the last 8 games. Juventus have some squad problems with 2 players Suspended, 1 out injured, and 2 out with the Chinese Kung Flu. Napolis’ captain and main goalscorer is also out with a muscle strain. This should be an entertaining game and if the question was will both teams score then I think it would be a no-brainer yes. As things go I am going to go with the majority of outcomes and put my vote for “No Juventus won’t win”.
SkyBet are offering the “Game of 2 halves” promotion tonight in the Champions League fixture between Man City and Dortmund tonight. This means that if you place a £5.00 in-play bet in the first half you will be credited with a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half. This free bet however has the same conditions as all their other free bets so can be saved. This is the first leg of the quarter finals and as such Dortmund being the away side will be all out to score as many away goals as possible tonight to gain that all important away goal advantage. They have scored at least one goal in every one of their Champions League games so far averaging 2.13 per match The current odds at Skybet for BTTS (Yes) is 2.0 but I need to place this in-play and may have to wait if skybet reduce the odds just before kick off A concerning stat that may put you off following my lead on this is Manchester City have Won to Nil in this competition in 75% of their games and in all but one of their home games. This however is countered by Dortmund having never lost to nil in this competition. A score draw tonight would give goals advantage in the second leg next week to Dortmund. Stay close to find out how I do
Tonight Brentford host Birmingham City in a game that is important to both teams. Paddy Power has posed 3 questions appertaining to this match 1. Will both teams score 2. Will Brentford be winning at half-time 3. Will there be 3 or more goals in the match All three are good ones and there are more listed I have decided to go for the over 2.5 goals question as it will give me a chance to explain my research methods. As always it is best to ascertain which team is most likely to win and the match odds heavily favour 3rd place Brentford with best odds of 1.62 (61.7% Implied Probability) to win the match. These odds suggest that a Brentford victory will be quite convincing as the BTTS odds are also weighted towards No at Best Odds of 1.78. However The Odds of Brentford winning to nil are 2.45 which implies a probability of only 40.8%. This suggests that while Brentford should win comfortably there is a better than even chance that Birmingham might score! This odds based research is most definitely giving mixed messages and before I move onto the actual stats I will look at the correct score markets just to confuse things further. In the correct score markets I look predominantly at score lines that have less than 3 goals and these are as follows Score Odds 1-0 6.6 (15.2% Implied Probability) 2-0 7.6 (13.2% Implied Probability) 1-1 9.0 (11.1% Implied Probability) 0-0 11.0 (9.1% Implied Probability) 0-1 17.0 (5.6% Implied Probability) 0-2 48.0 (2.1% Implied Probability) These probabilities added together gives an overall probability of 56.3% Which in actual fact returns odds of 1.78 – exactly the odds of a No in the BTTS market! This hasn’t really clarified the issue. Actual goal based stats are invaluable as you saw yesterday as relying on bookmaker odds, which carry such an overround in their favour, are good only to get a general feel for the bet. I will be looking at the over 2.5 goals stats to start with and can see straight away that Brentford, when playing at home average an over 2.5 goal rate of 56% with an average home scoring rate of 1.94 goals per game. They also have a conceding rate of 1.06. In layman’s terms this gives the impression that the score could well be 2-1. I have not ignored Birmingham City’s ability (or lack of it) and as miniscule as it is, it is still relevant and their average goals scored when playing away is 0.74 If we couple this with Brentford’s 1.94 it gives us an average of 2.68 goals – over 2.5. If you like this please click my like button on twitter or on here.
Start of the new week brings a new multitude of opportunities to try and end up in profit as well as gaining another £5.00 free bet towards next years Cheltenham festival. Earlier today I blogged about doing research for Paddy Powers “Beat the Drop” promotion and came across something which had me thinking about my first bet this week. Middlesbrough are hosting Watford as I write this and the question Paddy Power posed was “will both teams score?” Research suggested that they probably would but the odds to qualify for a free bet are 2.0 and the odds offered by SkyBet were 1.83 If we look at the soccerstats page for the game on the right hand side near the bottom is a chart names Goal times and below that is another chart of similar composition showing goal times relevent to home and away. The odds while in play for BTTS behave in a consistent way with the “Yes” odds steadily increasing and “No” odds decreasing. Using the charts on soccerstats I determined that the probability of a goal being scored before the odds rose to 2.0 were minimal and in fact there was a probability that all would be well until about 25 – 30 mins. It only took about 5 minutes for the odds to get to 2.0 and I snapped my bet on. – My phone has just tinged and lo and behold Watford have just scored in the 32nd Minute. Just hoping that the most likely time for Middlesbrough to score will be in the last 3rd of the second Half but anytime between now and the final whistle will do 😁🤞
Having just done a blog post on researching “Will Both Teams Score” and showing the workings for the lunchtime game between Middlesbrough and Watford I thought I might use it to enter question 2 of this round. As I said in my previous blog there can be 4 different outcomes to this question No teams score Team A scores and Team B doesn’t Team B scores and Team A doesn’t Both Teams score. Middlesbrough are hosting Watford today and BTTS odds are as follows Yes 1.91 – 2.1 No 1.72 – 1.87 This gives us an implied probability of -Yes 46.6% – No 53.5% I contrast to this and as an additional research point I had a quick look athe correct score markets and found that the 1-1 market is actually the favourite at odds of 6.8. While the odds are irrelevant as far as a return on your money is concerned. In relation to the other correct score odds it might indicate the bookies are hedging a BTTS outcome. From this I conclude that perhaps the odds on a yes result can be of value and might just back it for my first bet of the week towards my “Road To Cheltenham 2022” campaign at SkyBet. But I have Digressed and to get back on track the next market I looked at was the match odds and found that Watford were favourites at best odds of 2.3 (43.5% Implied Probability) and a Middlesbrough win can be backed at best odds of 3.85 (26% Implied Probability) With these figures in mind Recent home form of Middlesbrough indicates that having only failed to score in one game from the last 8 and the last 4 home games produced at least 1 goal the law of averages suggest that today may be another. I personally think that this conclusion can be backed up by the 1-1 correct score market being the favourite. When playing away Watford has the same game form but scored considerably more goals in each of the games averaging 2.0 (Middlesbrough averaged 1.45) Both of these averages are what I prefer to see when I am looking at both teams scoring. These figures are for both home and away games, if we drill it down further to the last 4 home games Middlesbrough played the goal average is even better at 1.75 and Watford’s away goals average is 2.25 The “Won to Nil” Stats are also encouraging as Middlesbrough have only 37% of their home games this season and Watford’s Away “Won to Nil” percentage is even better at 16% Lastly a look at the Head 2 Head stats and can see that even though the last twice these two teams met Watford won both to nil at home but when Middlesbrough hosted 4 out of 5 games ended with both teams scoring.
I do not usually get past Question 3 in Paddys Beat The Drop quest for a thousand quid but I thought i would share some insights as to how to research the different questions. First on the list is “Will Both Teams Score?” There can be 4 different outcomes attributed to this question: 1. No Teams Score 2. Only Team A Scores 3 . Only Team B Scores 4. Both Teams Score The first place to visit is the odds offered by the bookmakers themselves, and predominantly the BTTS Market. For instance one of the questions today is “Will Both Teams Score in the Middlesbrough v Watford Game?. The best place for this is that I have found is Oddschecker. This will give you an indication as to what the bookmakers are expecting the outcome to be and in this case the odds are as follows Yes : 1.91 – 2.1 No : 1.72 – 1.87 This straight away suggests that if we take the highest odds of each outcome the implied probability of both teams scoring is Yes : 46.6% No : 53.5% I then look at the odds for the match itself and again in this case the odds are as follows Middlesbrough : 3.4 – 3.85 Watford : 2.1 – 2.3 Using my trusty odds converter the implied probability of Middlesbrough winning is just 26% and Watford 43.5% As you can see, a picture is already forming. I now take this a step further and go to soccerstats.com Soccerstats has an absolutely massive database of stats and sometimes you can over think the situation For BTTS questions I will stick to Recent home and away form and win to nil and lose to nil stats as this is predominantly what we need So going with recent form for Middlesbrough we find that from the last 8 home and away games they have scored in all but 1 (away to Millwall) Watford has the same form only failing to score once (Away to Bournemouth) This suggests that this might after all be a case for a yes The “Won to nil” stats give a further indication as to the outcome and in the case of Middlesbrough playing at home they have only “Won to Nil” in 37% of their games this season and Watford Away just 16% The “Lost to Nil” percentages also give the same indications as they are both 21% As a quick comparison, if we look at the bottom team in the league, Wycombe, their win to nil away percentage is 0% meaning that they have not won a game this season without conceding at least one goal and their lost to nil away percentage is 47% meaning that they have not scored when playing away in nearly half of their games. These stats alone do not take into consideration 0-0 draws and this can be found in their scoring and “failed to score” rates In the case of Middlesbrough their scoring rate is 74% and failed to score 26% (100%) Watfords rates are 53% and 47% which could be a worry. Lastly I will look at the history of the head 2 head games and these are as follows and we can see that although in the last twice that these two teams have met Watford have won to nil both time but when Middlesbrough are at home both teams have scored in all instances but one and there has never been a 0-0 draw.
11 Sep 20
Watford – Middlesbrough
1 – 0
6 Apr 15
Watford – Middlesbrough
2 – 0
25 Oct 14
Middlesbrough – Watford
1 – 1
15 Feb 14
Watford – Middlesbrough
1 – 0
9 Nov 13
Middlesbrough – Watford
2 – 2
12 Jan 13
Middlesbrough – Watford
1 – 2
6 Oct 12
Watford – Middlesbrough
1 – 2
28 Apr 12
Watford – Middlesbrough
2 – 1
5 Nov 11
Middlesbrough – Watford
1 – 0
19 Mar 11
Middlesbrough – Watford
2 – 1
25 Sep 10
Watford – Middlesbrough
3 – 1
Beat the Drop is a free feature run by Paddy Power and as a consequence a great deal of fun. Nothing is lost in real money terms when you get a question wrong but get all 12 right and £1000 is yours. If we take this question to point and after doing the research you think that it is perhaps only a 75% chance of both teams scoring then you are able to split your pot accordingly or do more research into other questions that might give a more cut and dried outcome you can even do absolutely no research at all, split the pot for every question 50/50 and at the end of 12 questions be left with 24p – but where is the fun in that!
With just over an hour to the first of these games kicking off I will try and get as many stats down as possible. Southampton host Burnley today at 12:00 and Their home record over the last four games doesn’t make for a happy manager! 1 draw and 3 losses. They have gained just 4 points in the last 8 games (both home and away) If the match ends in a draw or away win this would be Southamptons 6th consecutive home game without a win. Defensively they have conceded 51 goals from the 29 games played this season. While Burnley are not exactly on fire as well they have gained 11 points from the last 8 games with 6 of them coming from their last 4 away games beating Everton 1-2 and Palace 0-3.
Game 2 on the roster is Tottenham’s away clash at Newcastle. A win for Tottenham in this game would see them level on points with Chelsea and a possible Champions League place. Newcastle’s last 4 home games have not ended well with only 2 points being gained from draws with Aston Villa and Wolverhampton. A 3-2 victory over Southampton 3 home games ago however, would bolster a decision not to be too hasty in backing this treble. Tottenham gained 15 points from their last 8 games to Newcastles 6. With the exception of Brighton (another resaon?) Tottenham have won all of their away games against teams in the bottom 7 of the league.
Finally I come to Aston Villa at home to relegation threatened Fulham. Fulham are of late, coming to the fore as their last 4 away games have all ended in points with notable victoies against both merseyside teams and both “to nil” to boot! Aston Villa on the other hand seem to be in the doldrums playing at home at the moment with just 1 win (Arsenal 1-0) from the last 4 games at Villa Park. Of the last 9 games in which these two sides have played each other Villa have won just 2 While the stats for these three games seem a bit sparse it would seem that the two home sides face a bit of an uphill struggle Good luck in whatever you decide Bettornot
Back to the beginning we go after Sunderland gave Oxford Utd a good thumping yesterday. Man Utd v Brighton could prove to be an interesting game as far as goals are concerned. Manchester Utd, after Leicester City lost yesterday, have the chance to now go 4 points clear in 2nd place. Brighton are 16th on 32 points and just a point today will help their cause. Manchester Utd have only “won to nil” 29% of their home games this season and Brighton have “lost to nil” in just 21% of their away games suggesting a BTTS result a distinct possibility. As far as form goes, of the last 8 games Brighton have played they have gained 11 points scoring at least 1 goal in all but 2 of them. Manchester’s Home scoring rate is 79% just 8% above Brightons away scoring rate of 71%.
In summary Brighton have failed to score just 4 times when playing away and Manchester Utd only 3 times while at home. Defensively I am not entirely satisfied that Manchester Utd will be able to hold off a Brighton attack should they mount one but Manchester’s scoring ability speaks for itself.
Betornot 