This years Cheltenham Festival saw me enter the fray with over £300 in free bets from SkyBet, whos’ free bets never expire. I managed to convert that to over £199.64 with the help of the money back offers. It is now time to start saving for next year and my first £5.00 free bet is already in the bag due to this weeks bets already settled. and will be credited this Monday. These series of Blog posts will track my bets each week, hopefully ending up in profit as well as having at least £260 in free bets by next March in time for next years Festival. As well as the regular weekly £5.00 free bet for wagering £25.00 there are plenty more opportunities that they offer so follow me on twitter as well as this blog to join in if you want.
Author Archives: shakey775
Arsenal, Juventus & Villarreal all to win
Boylesports have put this gem up and it immediatly took my eye because of the obvious no-no (in my opinion) of never take sides in a derby. As I have pointed out in my previous post about Ladbrokes boosted treble which also included the Arsenal Tottenham derby Tottenham have won 8 of these head to heads since Nov 2010 and drawn 7 leaving Arsenal with just 6 wins out of 21 games. Both teams have just won their Thursday Europa League games and todays team selection will be key and informative as to the intentions of the managers. Both of these teams can still reach Champion League places – such a difficult game to call.
Juventus currently 3rd in Serie A are playing away to 17th placed Cagliari and they are quite bluntly on form at the moment having scored no fewer than 19 goals in 8 matches. Cagliari have not managed to hold off any attacks by the top 7 sides when playing at home this season with their best score being 0-1 v Atalanta.
Spain is the venue for the final leg of this treble and more specifically Eibar where they host 7th placed Villarreal. Eibar are fighting for their place next season and dont have a good record when at home to teams higher in the league. On the other hand teams at the lower end of the league seem to be able to hold Villarreal to a draw most notable being a 0-0 draw to bottom club Huesca.
Good luck with whatever you decide as they have priced it about right at 9.0
Ladbrokes Premier League Treble. Brighton Leicester and Tottenham all to win.
After finishing my Timeform1-2-3 series in time for the start of Cheltenham next week (read about it here) I am back to picking the bones out of the bookmakers boosted bets. Todays target is Labrokes again. Ladbrokes are incessantly putting adverts on the radio telling all to gamble responsibly and then go and lure unsuspecting punters into their tentacles with these little gems.
Lets look at the Brighton match first as they have plainly put this in alphabetical order to hide it in plain veiw.
Brighton are away to Southampton today in the 12 o’clock kickoff and the odds suggest an away win could be on here. Southamptons home record of late has not been easy reading, having lost 3 and drawn 1 in the last 4 games. Brighton on the other hand have been victorious while playing away against both Leeds and Liverpool, drawn against Burnley but lost against West Brom. Brighton more than Southampton are needing back end season wins to lift them ever more away from the dredded drop zone. A factor against Brighton might be that Southampton have won their home matches when playing against teams that are lower than them in the league, 2-0 Newcastle, 2-0 West Brom, 3-0 Shefield Utd. In the past 7 encounters in this league Brighton have failed to win with Southampton winning 3 times and draws coming in the other games (All score draws by the way)
Next up is Leicester City who are hosting Sheffield Utd this afternoon. As most of you will be aware the tussle at the top is getting just a little more than exciting. With the top spot albeit lost in the clouds the battle for a champions league place can only really be described as savage. Sheffield Utd, even though all seems lost, managed to deny 3 points to Manchester Utd. Leicester cannot afford to lose with Tottenham Everton and West Ham all lookig at that 4th league spot with envious eyes. Recent form suggests that Leicester should win this quite comfortably but nothing should ever be a given in this game. Offensivley Leicester have scored 48 goals in 28 matches whereas sheffield have only managed 16. Leicesters defensive record is not great allowing 32 goals past them in the same 28 games.
Tottenham are away to Arsenal in this most famous of all North London Derbys. This fact alone would prevent me from including this game in any acca! Both teams have just played in the Europa League last Thursday (Both Winning) so fatigue must play a part. A win for Tottenham today would put them into 5th should West Ham lose to Manchester Utd later this evening but Tottenhams away form recently might suggest a different result having won only the most recent game against Fulham 0-1 losing to West Ham 2-1, Man City 3-0 and Brighton 1-0. Head to Head stats are against Tottenham by 13 – 8 (Arsenal wins 6, Draws 7, to Tottenhams 8 wins)
Ladbrokes have boosted this bet to 11.0 from 9.0 but you can get 11.5 on the Smarkets exchange if you are really intent on putting money on this
Betornot 😉
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 4 Summary
Day 4
2018
Race 1 -£3.00
Race 2 -£3.00
Race 3 -£3.00
Race 4 -£3.00
Race 5 -£3.00
Race 6 -£3.00
Race 7 -£3.00
Total Day Loss -£21.00
Total Festival Loss for 2018 -£26.42
2019
Race 1 +£18.00
Race 2 -£3.00
Race 3 -£3.00
Race 4 -£3.00
Race 5 -£3.00
Race 6 -£3.00
Race 7 -£3.00
Total Days Profit Loss £0.00
Total Festival Profit for 2019 £18.49
2020
Race 1 -£3.00
Race 2 +£3.00
Race 3 -£3.00
Race 4 +1.33
Race 5 -£3.00
Race 6 +£1.50
Race 7 -£3.00
Total Days loss -£6.17
Total 2020 Festival Loss -£4.52
The total loss incured over 3 years when backing 3 horses per race at level £1.00 stakes (252 bets) -£12.45 This works out at a loss of 15p per race 🤣
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 4 Race 7
The final race of this years festival is The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. There have been 12 runnings of this race and in the past 3 the winners have all carried top weight. The name Mullins tops the trainers rostrum again with 3 wins to date albeit the last one was in 2015. He does however have 3 entries that are in the top 10 betting with Gentleman De Mee and Ganapathi 1st and 2nd favs respectively!
2018 ( 23 Ran)
1 Mr Big Shot
2 Burrows Saint
3 Early Doors
Winner : Blow By Blow 12/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2019 (24 Ran)
1 Discordantly
2 Cartwright
3 Style De Garde
Winner : Early Doors 5/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2020 (23 Ran)
1 Front View
2 The Bosses Oscar
3 Column Of Fire
Winner: Indefatigable 25/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
With another race at Maximum loss it would seem that the Timeform Team are perhaps a bit “fatigable” by day 4 😁😁😁 either that or too much of that wonderful Leeds brew Tetleys but you know what they used to say “If you can’t beat ’em Join ’em”
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 4 Race 6
The penultimate race of this years festival is a brand new affair involving mares. Sponsored by Paddy Power it is of no surprise that Mr Mullins has no fewer than 6 Mares entered. Being a specialist in winning Mares only races the focus has to be on this trainer of indisputable talent. Looking at his entries, two of them have been tipped by R.P. tipsters Elimay and Colreevy and both of these mares have form warrenting their 1st and 2nd favourite status. Elimay last won against the Elliott trained Shattered Love who is also entered and is currently 3rd fav. Colreevy was in action in a grade 1 race at Limericks’ Christmas meeting winning the Matchbook Betting Exchange Faugheen Novice Chase by 1/2 length to another Elliott runner Pencilfulloflead. With no previous race to compare there are no Timeform1-2-3 stats to post. I would imagine that Mullins horses might well feature in their ratings though.
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 4 Race 5
The Foxhunter as it is commonly known is also sometimes referred to as the amateur Gold Cup and is always run straight after the actual Gold Cup. As mentioned in earlier blogs amateur riders are excluded from racing this year due to a british government not closing borders at the start of this pantomime. The failings of this Parliament, however, are not the aim of this blog but the real excitement of winning or losing money on a ton of horse is. Previous renewals of this race have seen a definite pattern of doubles occurring in the past 10 years with Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder all winning twice on the bounce. It Came To Pass was last years winner and is in the entries at an ante-post price of 12/1 and an RPR of 155 (top rated with Bob and Co) Previous Timeform1-2-3 picks faired as follows
2018 (24 Ran)
1 Caid Du Berlais
2 Wonderful Charm
3 Foxrock
Winner : Pasher Du Polder 14/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2019 (24 Ran)
1 Caid Du Berlais
2 Road To Rome
3 Stand Up And Fight
Winner : Hazel Hill 7/2f
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2020 (21 Ran)
1 Caid Du Berlais
2 Hazel Hill
3 Law Of Gold
Winner : It Came To Pass 66/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
As with the Gold Cup proper it seems the jockeys outfoxed Timeform again with a maximum loss over the 3 years
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 4 Race 4
The Cheltenham Gold Cup – its what we wait all year for and its all over in about 7 minutes of pure adrenalin fueled joy or despair depending on who your money was on. Al Boum Photo will be going for 3 on the bounce to equal the likes of Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate. There are so many trends to this race that the mind boggles and picking the winner is not as simple as backing the favourite (only 4 from the last 10 renewals have managed it)
2018 (15 Ran)
1 Definitely Red
2 Might Bite
3 Our Duke
Winner : Native River 4/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2019 (16 Ran)
1 Kemboy
2 Native River
3 Shattered Love
Winner : Al Boum Photo 12/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2020 (12 Ran)
1 Delta Work
2 Clan Des Obeaux
3 Al Boum Photo
Winner : Al Boum Photo 10/3
Profit/Loss +£1.33
not even each-way bets would have saved Timeform 1-2-3
Win some lose some 🤷♂️
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 4 Race 3
The Albert Bartlett is one of those races introduced 16 years ago when the festival went from 3 days to four. Run over 3 miles and 12 hurdles. Of the 16 renewals 15 had won or placed in a graded novice hurdle, the only exception was last years winner Monkfish who had no graded form at all. The leading trainer is Jonjo O’Neill who has a 100% record of 2 for 2 whilst Mullins also has 2 wins but not the percentage. Both of Mullins runners that won had won last time out.
2018 (20 Ran)
1 Poetic Rhythm
2 Chef Des Obeaux
3 Chris’s Dream
Winner : Kilbricken Storm 25/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2019 (20 Ran)
1 Dickie Diver
2 Lisnagar Oscar
3 Allaho
Winner : Minella Indo 50/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2020 (19 Ran)
1 Latest Exhibition
2 Thyme Hill
3 Harry Senior
Winner : Monkfish
Profit/Loss -£3.00
Points to note however is that in 2020 Latest Exhibition and Thyme Hill Both Placed at 9/2 and 4/1 respectively 2019 saw Dickie Diver place at 14/1 and Allaho at 8/1 but 2018 didn’t get a single placed horse from Timeform.
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 4 Race 2
The County Handicap Hurdle has been won by just two trainers in the past 6 years Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton and with the exception of Wicklow Brave in 2015 the winning horses have either won or placed last time out. There is no particular pattern to any previous race as “last time out” ranges from 418 days to 6 days as in the case of the aforementioned Wicklow Brave.
Saint Roi was the 1st favourite to win last year in ten years but we need to note that Mullins was having a ball and Saint Roi was heavily backed in from 6/1 to 9/2 eventually drifting out to its S.P. of 11/2.
2018 (24 Ran)
1 Whiskey Sour
2 Flying Tiger
3 Chesterfield
Winner : Mohaayed 20/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2019 (24 Ran)
1 Monsieur LeCoq
2 We Have A Dream
3 Countistr
Winner : Ch’Tibello 12/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2020 (24 Ran)
1 You Raised Me Up
2 Sir Valentine
3 Saint Roi
Winner : Saint Roi 11/2
Profit/Loss +£3.50
An overall loss over 3 years for the Timeform team in this race.
Betornot 